Over 73 million Americans voted for Donald Trump, about 5.5 million fewer than Joe Biden. Biden is easily going to prevail over all of Donald Trump abortive attempts to wrest the election for himself. However, the future of all of the President-elect’s pledges very much relies on control of the US Senate. The two Georgia run-off seats (to be determined in January) are unlikely both to go to the Democrats, and if either seat is retained by the GOP, Biden’s legislative agenda is extremely unlikely to find traction.
There are two major forces tilting against the Biden presidency that could render his tenure nothing more than gridlocked caretaker administration, if not worse. The first is the ultra-populist movement, backed in part by well-armed and very angry conspiracy theorists and trained militia, that has a significant groundswell of adherents very openly stating that unless or until Donald J Trump both (i) concedes that he lost the election and (ii) that it was a fair and honest determination, they will not recognize Joe Biden’s victory. What’s more, they are expressing a willingness to use arms if called upon to support Trump’s remaining in office.
The second force, rather obviously, is the necessity of getting legislations passed by both houses of Congress. The Democrats, while maintaining a slim majority, may control the House of Representatives, but without one victory in the Georgia US Senate race, the GOP will still have a one vote majority. If the Dems win both seats creating an even split, Vice President Kamala Harris (as “President of the Senate”) will have the power to break a tie. Otherwise…
An online discussion of political experts was hosted by Yale University’s Institution for Social and Policy Studies (ISPS) on Nov. 17th, and the resulting analysis was anything but optimistic. “[The] Democratic Party will be unable to enact its legislative agenda on policing reform, healthcare, climate change, and other issues, said David Mayhew, [Yale University] Sterling Professor of Political Science Emeritus and one of the nation’s foremost experts on the U.S. Congress… ‘Biden’s got a tough presidency,’ Mayhew said. ‘It’s going to be an inbox management presidency like Harry Truman’s, not a legislative program presidency. It’s a very tough four years coming up.’
“Voters rendered a split verdict on the future of American democracy, delivering a clear rebuke to President Donald Trump while likely denying the Democratic Party full control of Congress, said Jacob Hacker, the [Yale] Stanley B. Resor Professor of Political Science. .. ‘[Senate Majority Leader] Mitch McConnell once again will be in the position of deciding what is possible for an incoming Democratic administration and will almost certainly say, as he did back under President Obama, that his top priority is to make the Democratic incumbent a one-term president,’ said Hacker, whose latest book, ‘Let Them Eat Tweets: How the Right Rules in an Age of Extreme Inequality,’ analyzes the Republican Party’s use of populist appeals to rally voters behind what he describes as policies that favor the rich and powerful.
“Hacker argued that the Republican Party has insulated itself from electoral accountability by burrowing into the country’s anti-majoritarian political institutions, such as the Senate. Republican elected officials’ silence as Trump makes baseless claims of widespread voter fraud is deeply troubling, he added. .. ‘The base of the Republican Party is thoroughly Trumpian,’ he said. ‘The structures of organized outrage that have supported him remain in place.’
"Trump’s enduring popularity within the Republican Party offers a bleak picture of the state of American democracy, said Isabela Mares, the [Yale] Arnold Wolfers Professor of Political Science. The president’s ability to attract more than 70 million votes during the latest election despite the federal government’s ineffective response to the COVID-19 pandemic was puzzling, she said. His populist messages downplaying the virus and blaming China for its spread proved effective in maintaining his electoral coalition, Mares added… ‘This suggests to me that we have not fully appreciated the power and strength of populist appeals,’ she said… The willingness of Republican elected officials to countenance Trump’s violation of democratic norms is evidence of an eroding democracy, she suggested.
“Mayhew was more optimistic about the health of democracy in the U.S. … ‘I think the election is a considerable victory for moderation and probably for coalition government of the American sort,’ he said, noting that voters rejected both Trump and the leftwing of the Democratic Party. ‘The fever is down.’… The election, Mayhew added, was smoothly conducted despite the challenge of executing it amid the pandemic. And, he said, Trump’s denial of the result will fail… I think the ‘democracy is dying’ script should be put back in the file cabinet.
“However, some of the tactics used by Trump could stick, said Christina Kinane, an assistant professor of political science and an expert on political appointments. His practice of installing acting directors to executive agencies to avoid the normal vetting process will provide a ‘playbook’ for Biden should a Republican-controlled Senate block his appointees, she said.” YaleNews, November 19th.
Aside from the fact that the US Constitution is close to being two and a half centuries old – created in the time of muskets, flintlocks and sailing ships when the United States was 94% agricultural – there was this underlying assumption that those elected to Congress and the presidency would be men (yup, men) of high moral standing who would place their country’s interests above party or individual. There are lots of holes in democratic processes as defined in that esteemed, founding if not archaic document, one that today is virtually impossible to amend. That “men of honor” assumption obviously is no longer operative. If this nation does not find a way to get past the current democracy threats to a more compromise-based form of government (which has defined the US for most of its history – minus the Civil War), if the value of a unified nation is no longer perceived as relevant or desirable, this United States will end… and it will not end well.
I’m Peter Dekom, and I am deeply saddened by this dramatic political breakdown that is threatening to end one of the greatest nations on earth.
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