Even as the COVID-vaccines are slowly being deployed – signaling a light at the end of a very dark tunnel – the virus has never been as virulent (good word!) as it is now. According to senior pandemic advisor (to Trump and Biden), Dr. Anthony Fauci, the expectation is that family and other social gatherings during the Chanukkah, Christmas holidays and New Year’s will result in record-breaking escalating rates of infections and deaths in January. Here in Los Angeles, ICU availability at some of the largest hospitals is already exhausted or close to exhausted; additional hospital beds are being deployed in tents set up in parking lots. At least the city has lots of hospitals.
In smaller towns and rural communities, there is often just one regional hospital with nothing else close. The pandemic seems to thrive on vulnerabilities, carelessness, denial and the utter exhaustion of so many members of the general public to lockdowns and masks. Many small businesses, particularly restaurants in high-infection cities, are facing the Hobson’s Choice of accepting a lockdown, on the one hand, or defying the order, risking criminal sanctions and perhaps permanent closure, and staying open, on the other. Economic survival. There are still twelve states, even though ravished by the pandemic, that refuse to impose mandatory mask and safe distancing requirements, as well as limitations on gatherings.
Political rallies in support of a continued Trump presidency, notwithstanding the electoral vote and the acceptance by a growing number of Republicans, and younger but frustrated partygoers, seem to be oblivious to the super-spreader nature of these activities. There are entire families who gathered at Thanksgiving now enjoying having spread the infection to everyone in attendance. With large pockets of resistance to getting the vaccine, either for ideological reasons or simple fear of a relatively new vaccine with a less than optimal testing period, the continued denial that the virus is still serious and simple “COVID fatigue,” there is a very real possibility that as the virus continues to explode, we simply will not achieve that magic 70% of the population with sufficient immunity to effect herd immunity.
“Meanwhile, the number of deaths related to COVID-19 in the U.S. has surpassed 300,000, according to data from the Coronavirus Resource Center at Johns Hopkins University… Many of those opposed to wearing masks say that coronavirus risks are being exaggerated or that mask mandates violate rights, are not enforceable or create polarization. President Trump has mocked the use of masks, though he has worn them at times.
“In some communities, protests have been held by those who oppose mask mandates… In one recent case, anti-mask protesters gathered outside of Idaho’s public health department and the homes of board members during a virtual meeting to vote on a local mask ordinance… Board members voted to adjourn the meeting and revisit the issue at a later date.
“A study by researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, published Oct. 23, showed that masks could save more than half a million lives through the end of February if Americans wore them every time they left their homes.
“U.S. health officials in recent days have emphasized that distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will take months and that safety measures remain vital. President-elect Joe Biden last week called for everyone to wear masks during the first 100 days of his presidency, which begins Jan. 20… ‘We need your help. Wear a mask for just 100 days,’ Biden said in a Twitter video. ‘It’s the easiest thing you can do to reduce COVID cases, hospitalizations and death.’” Priscella Vega writing for the Los Angeles Times, December 15th. Don’t hold your breath!
What makes this pandemic so much worse is the ease of travel. It is much more difficult to contain a pandemic when those infected can move vast distances to infect others. There are industries desperate to open wide, including airlines, making containment so much more difficult. And as hard as it is for those of us here in the United States to find a place in line to get one of the approved vaccines, if we want one, COVID will be kept alive and well for a much longer period in the rest of the world. That could just trigger another outbreak, depending on the reach and the staying power of the immunizations that are dispensed.
“Researchers who looked at the deals that wealthy countries have struck with vaccine manufacturers found that nearly a quarter of the global population is likely to be waiting until 2022—and possibly longer—to have access to the vaccine.
“By mid-November, before any COVID-19 vaccines had regulatory approval, countries had reserved a total of 7.48 billion doses of the vaccines, enough to cover 3.76 billion people. But of the 13 different vaccines with preorders, it still isn’t clear how many will actually succeed. And just over half of the doses have been reserved by wealthier countries, even though low- and middle-income countries make up 85% of the global population. Even if all of the leading vaccines move forward and can reach maximum production, the study says that 22.5% of the world’s population may have to wait until at least 2022 for vaccination.
“That’s a problem for everyone, not only the countries that may be waiting longest. ‘If we do not curb the pandemic globally, then there is always the possibility that it will return to our shores, and trade and travel in the world will not return to the pre-COVID days, unless we do effectively treat and prevent the resurgence of this pandemic in all countries of the world, not just in high-income countries,’ says Anthony So, a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and one of the authors of the study, published today in The BMJ.” Adele Peters writing for FastCompany.com, December 15th. The strangest part of all of this has to be that if the entire US population cooperated and took the proper measures, the pandemic would be crushed in a month. But we all know that just will not happen.
I’m Peter Dekom, and while those most senior political leaders know that they can access the only seriously effective experimental treatment – Regeneron – if they succumb to the virus, virtually no one else can.
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