Sweden had a theory. It was a small heterogeneous community of responsible citizens. So, when COVID-19 was exploding all over Europe earlier this year, Sweden reacted with a great big yawn, placing its chips on a notion of herd immunity if necessary. After all, they had one of the best universal healthcare systems in the world, some of the best doctors and hospitals anywhere, as well as standards of cleanliness that were far above most of the rest of the world. And indeed, their infection rate was mild by comparison to the rest of the continent. When there was a nascent spike in Swedish COVID infections, the government came down with a list of “recommendations,” but at “no point since the pandemic started [had] Sweden imposed a lockdown, relying instead on voluntary social distancing. That’s led to higher infection and mortality rates than in the rest of the Nordic region, but with few signs so far that Sweden has developed herd immunity.” Bloomberg, November 3rd. By October, the numbers were getting pretty nasty.
“In a country that was famous — or infamous — for its initial, more laissez-faire approach to the pandemic, worries are growing along with the death toll. COVID-19 has claimed 7,354 lives out of a population of just over 10 million — about 29% more deaths than North Carolina, which has about the same number of residents. Sweden also suffers from a notably high mortality rate among those who fall ill with the virus… The healthcare system is now operating close to capacity in many parts of the country. In greater Stockholm, where more than 2 million people live, intensive care units were at 99% of occupancy as of midweek [12/9]…
“Restrictions announced in November and slated to last through February now limit public gatherings or events, both indoor and outdoor, to eight people — down from 50 — and ban the serving of alcohol after 10 p.m. in bars and restaurants. [Prime Minister Stefan] Lofven also announced last week that high schools, previously open for in-person instruction, would move to distance learning… Those measures are still lenient compared with much of Western Europe.” Nils Adler for the December 11th Los Angeles Times. Swedes are beginning to realize they need much more! As you can see from the above photograph, masks are still not mandatory!
High-level Trump COVID advisor, Scott Atlas, a Stanford University neuro-radiologist with no formal experience in public health or infectious diseases, was fond of citing the Swedish experience as justification for his belief that the United States also could avoid lockdowns and other restrictions on businesses, generate herd immunity, and watch the disease dissipate and the economy explode. But by November, the Swedish experiment towards herd immunity was failing almost as fast as the infection and mortality rates were exploding, mirroring some of the worst parallel statistics in Europe. Effective December 1st, Scott Atlas resigned from his Trump COVID advisor role.
Herd immunity is the holy grail. But it comes at a huge price. Exposure (infection or inoculation) to the disease somewhere north of 60-70% of the entire population is required before a disease is pushed out under that desired goal. And as bad as this infection has become in the United States (noting that unless the rest of the world joins in, there will always be a continued risk of re-exposure), even the most aggressive statistics here report that well less than half of the exposure of the disease to the US population necessary for herd immunity has taken place.
With family and other gatherings over Thanksgiving, Christmas/Chanukkah and New Year’s, Trump (and now Biden) senior COVID advisor, Dr. Anthony Fauci projects that, across the country, we will exceed our medical capacity (hospital beds, ICU units and staffing) to handle the expected continued surge. By January, he states, we will be in the “darkest” time of this pandemic, notwithstanding the beginning of vaccine availability. We have also seen GOP political rallies and meetings, typified by Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani (now hospitalized with COVID), turn into super-spreader events.
It is clear that without a vaccine, herd immunity would otherwise be years away. And for all the clamoring of desperate business owners, particularly restaurants clinging to survival, we are facing a terrible path from “here to there,” with infection and mortality statistics the highest since the pandemic began. COVID-19 has risen to become the greatest killer in the land, trumping automobile accidents, heart attacks and cancer. The government has done the world’s worst job of convincing Americans that the vaccines being released are safe. The rumors in the African American community, where Blacks have been skeptical of government medical programs addressing their community for decades, show very strong resistance to the vaccine. Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed,” combined with threats to overrule or change the standards of the FDA and other governmental agencies on the issue of vaccine safety, have done much to undermine public confidence in the vaccines that are coming online now.
We also do not know how long immunity from vaccination lasts, whether it works in every demographic segment, but the nation seems to be relying on some significant impact from mass inoculation on saving our economy. If people accept vaccination. Lots of people are scared to return to work unless they and their fellow workers have been vaccinated or are otherwise immune. Without the confidence to return to work, without consumers trusting going into businesses and transacting, buying or getting services, the economy does not have a prayer of a shortened 2021 recovery. Republicans want to add a provision to any stimulus bill that relieves employers from liability for COVID infections, just as Democrats foresee employers forcing their workers back as a condition of retaining their jobs… even if working conditions are obviously still far from safe. What exactly can employers do now?
For example, can employers even order their employees to get vaccinated as a condition of returning to work? “‘In general, yes, employers are able to mandate the vaccine when it becomes available with, of course, a bunch of caveats,’ says employment lawyer Lindsay Ryan, listing possible exemptions for those with specific medical conditions and those with sincerely held religious convictions.
“Ryan emphasizes that state laws regulating what constitutes reasonable accommodations for religious groups vary significantly, but that ‘under federal law, employers don’t have to grant a religious accommodation if doing so would result in more than a de minimis cost to the operation of the business.’
“‘De minimis’ is Latin for ‘of minimum importance’ and is used in law to refer to a total so small that it is not even recognized. Given how significantly the pandemic has impacted businesses, Ryan says ‘this is a pretty low standard.’ Meaning, many employers will likely have legal ground to require vaccination… She adds that being a so-called ‘anti-vaxxer’ or being ‘naturally fearful of taking a vaccine that is brand new” would likely “not suffice to get out of an employer-mandated vaccine.’…
“‘More than other vaccines that might have been either encouraged or required in the past, such as the flu vaccine, we’re going to see a lot more pushback from fearful employees,’ she predicts. ‘This is going to be particularly true of employees that haven’t felt like they’ve had an opportunity to learn about and fully understand the vaccine. [Mandating vaccination] could result in low employee morale. It could even result in reducing the workforce if employees feel like it’s an ultimatum that they’re not going to accept and they would rather forego the vaccine and lose their jobs.’… To combat this reluctance, some employers may consider encouraging and incentivizing vaccination — rather than simply requiring it.” CNBC.com, December 3rd.
With a whole lot of Trump supporters still denying the existence of the novel coronavirus, even when their own relatives have perished from the disease, or believing as Trump has wrongfully predicted for months that the disease was dying out on its own, we have a major uphill battle in taming this virus (and potential other viruses lurking on the horizon). We are heading to a mortality statistic of 500,000+ within months, but even the acceleration of the disease continues to fall on too many deaf ears. Many still deny the numbers, even the occupancy statistics in their local hospitals, as liberal “fake news.” If a virus could smile, this one would be laughing.
I’m Peter Dekom, and this pandemic will end, but how much damage it will continue to inflict appears to be very much in the hands of those who doubt it most.
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