Thursday, February 18, 2021

Trump-QAnon-Republicans vs the Grand Old Party

We can learn a lot about the future of the Republican Party by looking at the aftermath of both (a) the election and (b) the Senate acquittal of Donald Trump as the insurrection inciter. As Democrats were reveling in their “skin of their teeth” control of the US Senate while maintaining control of the House (by a smaller margin), most of us missed the fact that GOP control of a majority of state legislatures increased: “On Nov. 3, the net change was Republicans gained 141 seats, Democrats lost 133 seats, and independent and third party candidates lost eight seats.” Ballotopedia, February 2nd.


As noted in my The “Get the Voters Out” Campaign blog, that increase has only made GOP plans to implement gerrymandering and voter suppression that much more of a priority… and even easier to implement. GOP opponents simply do not have the same per person voting power of their Republican counterparts. 


A new breed of Republican, favoring more autocratic rule based on distrust and conspiracy theories, was in control. The Trump-QAnon faction. Everybody in Congress knew that Trump incited the January 6th insurrectionists, but there were enough technical reasons to acquit such that only seven Senate Republicans joined with the 50 Democrats to find the ex-president guilty, missing the required two-thirds. Party loyalty demanded a GOP vote for acquittal. But even after voting for acquittal with the majority of his Republican compatriots, in a scathing post-hearing speech on the Senate floor, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said:

Let me put that to the side for one moment and reiterate something I said weeks ago: There is no question that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day [the January 6th Capitol attack]. The people who stormed this building believed they were acting on the wishes and instructions of their president. And their having that belief was a foreseeable consequence of the growing crescendo of false statements, conspiracy theories, and reckless hyperbole which the defeated president kept shouting into the largest megaphone on planet Earth.” 

So what? The new GOP is now totally predicated on continuing those false statements, conspiracy theories and reckless hyperbole. Master politician McConnell was clearly trying to placate business leaders who were pulling back their contributions to his now radicalized party. Even as Fox News and the other right-wing networks, reeling from defamation risks, have repeatedly retracted their statements that major voting machine manufacturers knowingly rigged their machines to favor Joe Biden, large swaths of GOP voters still believe the machines were rigged, and as noted below, a supermajority of Republicans still believe that Trump won the election… by a landslide. To most Republicans holding or running for elected office, siding with the Trump base is a dire necessity. Even though Seventy-one percent of American adults, including nearly half of all Republicans, believe former President Donald Trump was at least partially responsible for starting the deadly Jan 06 assault on the US Capitol, according to an Ipsos poll conducted for Reuters.” Reuters, February 14th. Even those Republicans mostly still support Trump! Violence in support of an autocrat is OK?

The old Reagan GOP doctrine of less government and lower taxes faded away with that Senate vote, reinforced with a tsunami of backlash against Republican Governors, House Representatives and Senators who did not stand firmly with the unequivocal GOP leader: Donald John Trump, who continues to embrace his vision of “law and order” autocracy, white supremacy (even if violent) and the existence of a great conspiracy to deprive him of continued power. Even as that vote to convict was the greatest bipartisan such vote in history. 

As Steve Peoples, writing for the February 14th Associated Press, notes: Trump’s conspiracy laden leadership is clearly the new Republican Party, to the rather dramatic exclusion of traditional fiscal conservatives. Today, “Trump's grasp on the GOP and its future remains airtight… Gallup reported last month that Trump's approval among self-described Republicans stood at 82%. And more recently, Monmouth University found that 72% of Republicans continue to believe Trump's false claims that President Joe Biden won the November election only because of widespread voter fraud.


“Lest their be any doubt about Trump's strength, House Republicans voted overwhelmingly last week to defend a diehard Trump loyalist, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., even after evidence surfaced that she had repeatedly embraced violence, bigotry and conspiracy theories [including QAnon] on social media… Just days after House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy called Trump responsible for the violent attack, McCarthy reversed himself and made a personal visit to Trump's Florida estate to ensure there was no lingering animosity.


“Of the seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump on Saturday, only one faces reelection in the next four years. Indeed, in Trump's Republican Party, there are very few willing to cross him if they harbor future political ambitions… ‘One of them, 2024 prospect Nikki Haley, who was U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, drew attention this week after telling Politico that Trump's role in the Jan. 6 attack essentially disqualified him from running for office again… ‘He's fallen so far,’ Haley said. ‘He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.’


“Another Republican presidential prospect, Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., voted to convict Trump on Saturday, declaring that Trump's ‘lies’ about widespread voter fraud endangered ‘the life of the vice president" and are "bringing us dangerously close to a bloody constitutional crisis.’… While Sasse may run for president in 2024, he won't face Republican primary voters in Nebraska again unless he chooses to run for reelection in 2026.


“Similarly, GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana faced a censure by his state party after voting to convict Trump. But he won’t face voters again until 2026 so is relatively insulated from political consequences.” Likewise, censures by local GOP parties have slammed Wyoming’s Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney, Arizona’s Gov. Doug Ducey (who simply followed his legal obligation to certify the election results), former Sen. Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain, all of whom opposed Trump's efforts to overturn President Joe Biden's victory, or in the case of Flake and McCain, who endorsed the Democratic nominee before the election.


“Educated voters are turning away from this new Republican vector, any many business leaders are taking a good hard look on how exclusionary hate speech is a major turn off to many of their customers and clients. “The fallout threatens to undermine the organization's fundraising appeal and its influence, even as the super PAC works to expand its reach through a popular podcast and expanding streaming video channel that drew more than 4 million views last month alone.


“Even before the crisis, co-founder Reed Galen acknowledged that Trumpism was winning… ‘The authoritarian side of the Republican Party is the dominant side,’ he said. ‘They have the momentum. For now, they have the money.’… Sarah Longwell, a Republican strategist who leads the anti-Trump group known as Defending Democracy Together, said that ‘what the last two months have shown is if Donald Trump was a cancer on the country and the party, he’s metastasized.’… ‘I thought we could push past him,’ she said. ‘But now I don’t think that.’


“Still, the Republican Party faces tremendous political risks should its leaders continue to embrace Trump and his brand of norm-shattering politics… Already, scores of Republican-friendly businesses have vowed to stop giving money to Trump's allies in Congress, cutting off a critical revenue stream just as Republicans hope to reclaim the House and Senate majorities in next year's midterm elections.” Associated Press.


Is Trump physically strong enough, especially after what turned out to be a severe bout with COVID-19, to continue his leadership of the GOP? Can he hold the conspiracy theorists tight even as virtually all their predictions have serially failed? Are the schisms dividing the Republican Party effectively planting the seeds of ultimate unraveling? Will new political parties arise? Does Biden have a prayer of instituting his political agenda? Is 2022 literally tilting towards a GOP take-back? Can a conspiracy theory driven party win a national election? Without gerrymandering or voter suppression? Time will tell.


I’m Peter Dekom, and can the American democracy withstand this unceasing assault of this Trump-legitimized “growing crescendo of false statements, conspiracy theories, and reckless hyperbole”?


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