Demon Coal

As I was driving back and forth between Los Angeles and Santa Fe (New Mexico) up and down US Interstates (I-10 and I-40), I watched very long trainloads of coal being ferried to power stations across the nation. I also saw more than a few of those stations along the way. A couple had been converted to natural gas, but those generating plants were all uniformly large. I also saw a lot of newly built wind and solar generators along the way. Yet I had trouble finding convenient charging stations for my hybrid, so most of my journey was by old-fashioned gasoline, quite expensive in this summer still-COVID-impaired travel season.

That there is so much resistance to expanding alternative energy options in the infrastructure debate before Congress is most puzzling on a practical basis. Why is series climate change not obvious to all? Gulf states, for example, are the hardest hit by searing heat, hurricanes and coastal flooding and erosion but are also bastions of right-wing global change deniers or marginalizers. As some politically conservative fossil fuel producing regions now add a special tax to consumers opting for solar powered homes, it is clear that we have a long way to go to reverse our continuing contribution to greenhouse gasses. Both in attitude and reality. A few states have lofty goals, perhaps even those being “too little, too late,” like California’s ban on sales of gasoline/diesel powered vehicles after 2035. But let’s face it, the myth of “clean coal” is nothing more than pumping the nasty effluents underground for future generations to deal with.

However, much of the “it’s not going to be solved unless China and India comply” complaints, justify a “why should we even try” skepticism. Neither China nor India have even met the 2015 Paris climate accord burden of timely reporting their efforts to contain greenhouse gas emissions. Some of the world’s least breathable air resides in the biggest cities in these two nations. Beijing (pictured above) is among the worst offenders. While there is a mini-glimmer of hope as cooperating with China over climate change issues is an exception to the animus that defines Sino-American relations these days, China currently still generates over half the planet’s coal-fired energy with obvious consequences.

Writing for the August 1st Los Angeles Times, Daniel Gardner (co-organizer of the China Environmental Group at Princeton University’s High Meadows Environmental Institute and professor emeritus of Chinese history and environment at Smith College) detects a certain irony between China’s power generation and its manufacturing success: “[Despite its massive use of coal, China] is the world’s leading manufacturer of — and market for — solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles. Whether China can free itself from its decades-old addiction to coal will determine not just its own environmental future but also Earth’s prospects in the face of the gathering climate crisis.

“China’s leaders began to recognize the need for change in the early 2000s. The largely coal-fueled ‘economic growth at all costs’ policy had brought great prosperity, but the collateral damage to the country’s air and water had grown unacceptably high. Environmental advocates called for ‘building an ecological civilization,’ in which nature and humankind would find a harmonious balance. And when President Xi Jinping assumed power in 2012, he immediately took up the cause.

“In quick succession, the Chinese government declared a ‘war on pollution’; drew up separate air, water and soil action plans committing $1 trillion to environmental cleanup; closed inefficient coal plants; and invested hundreds of billions of dollars in renewable energy development. It also made domestic manufacture and sales of electric vehicles a high priority and devised a nationwide carbon-trading system.

“But that forward momentum now appears to have shifted into reverse. Coal consumption, which had decreased each year from 2014 to 2016, has since risen steadily. The same is true of carbon dioxide emissions, which increased by 1.5% to 1.7% even during the pandemic-induced slowdown in 2020… The 2019 United Nations Emissions Gap Report concluded that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels requires reducing global emissions by 55% from 2018 levels by 2030.

“But China added 38.4 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity in 2020 (a large power plant produces around 1 gigawatt), even as the rest of the world reduced its net capacity by 17.2 gigawatts… Worse, this increase is only the beginning. The Chinese government has approved construction of an additional 36.9 gigawatts of coal-fired power capacity, bringing the total under construction today to 88 gigawatts, with proposals to build an additional 158.7 gigawatts in the pipeline.

“A Global Energy Monitor report concludes that if China continues to expand capacity to 1,400 gigawatts through 2035, as proposed, ‘its coal-power generation alone will be more than three times as large as the global limit on coal power use determined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to keep global warming well below 2 degrees C.’

Global politics, internal dissention and pandemic realities (job loss and economic contraction) have deflected policy directives in China to emphasize economic growth above environmental priorities. “The government has been more interested in stimulating traditional, energy-intensive industries such as steel, iron and cement, while provincial leaders have embarked on a spree of constructing coal-fired power plants… The recent U.S.-China trade war has further heightened Chinese concerns about energy security, given that the country imports roughly 70% of its oil needs and 40% of its gas requirements.

“And while China has gone all in on renewable energy, especially solar and wind, it cannot scale up these sources quickly enough to meet anticipated demand. Nor is the current electricity grid capable of transmitting this energy efficiently from China’s distant west, where most of it is produced, to high-demand areas. Coal — abundant and relatively inexpensive — seems to many a reliable, tried-and-true energy source.

“Finally, it is probably not a coincidence that China’s coal relapse came at a time when the U.S. was absent from the international climate scene… Whereas former President Obama and Xi found common ground in the battle against global warming, setting the stage for the 2015 Paris climate agreement, U.S. disengagement from the issue under President Trump probably weakened China’s commitment, too.” Gardner.

There are some obvious immediately ameliorating steps simply by focusing on the worst of the worst polluters. “In a new study, researchers combed through emissions data from more than 29,000 fossil fuel power plants in 221 countries to identify the biggest polluters, building on a book published last year, Super Polluters: Tackling the World’s Largest Sites of Climate-Disrupting Emissions. The top 5% of polluters, they found, were responsible for 73% of electricity-sector emissions. Six of the plants are in China and other parts of East Asia, two are in India, and two are in Europe.” Adele Peters writing for the August 2nd FastCompany.com. The United States used to have a strong voice on climate change. Perhaps it can again.

While the seeming challenge of containing climate change seems insurmountable, to regain that strong voice, the United States must lead by massive example. We lost the high ground on human rights during the Trump years and began to lose climate change credibility as we withdrew from international climate agreements. But someone has to lead, and the United States – for itself and for the entire planet – is a most natural choice. Let’s make it happen. Keeping the climate conversations going even with our most antagonistic foes is an existential necessity.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the rising panic in our rising generations suggests that their parents and grandparents still owe them so much more towards making the planet habitable again.