A Strategic Weapon of Great Significance

 

Within hours after Joe Biden’s inauguration, North Korea tested what it claimed to be a cruise missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. Over the second weekend in September, as Americans were remembering the horrors of the 9/11/01 attacks, North Korean state media reported that their nation had mounted yet another test of that limited range cruise missile. While fears of a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads, as well as the potential of a comparable submarine-launched ballistic missile, continued, news of the purported test of the smaller weapon drew serious consternation. This could be the first missile generated by the North truly capable of carrying a nuke.

It is important to note the difference between a cruise missile and a ballistic missile. Both are deadly but each has its own advantages in destructive power. According to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, “Cruise missiles are unmanned vehicles that are propelled by jet engines, much like an airplane. They can be launched from ground, air or sea platforms… Cruise missiles remain within the atmosphere for the duration of their flight and can fly as low as a few meters off the ground. Flying low to the surface of the earth expends more fuel but makes a cruise missile very difficult to detect.

“Cruise missiles are self-guided and use multiple methods to accurately deliver their payload, including terrain mapping, global positioning systems (GPS) and inertial guidance, which uses motion sensors and gyroscopes to keep the missile on a pre-programmed flight path. As advanced cruise missiles approach their target, remote operators can use a camera in the nose of the missile to see what the missile sees. This gives them the option to manually guide the missile to its target or to abort the strike…

“Ballistic missiles are powered initially by a rocket or series of rockets in stages, but then follow an unpowered trajectory that arches upwards before descending to reach its intended target. Ballistic missiles can carry either nuclear or conventional warheads.” They can range from short-range (1,000 miles) or longer-range (5,700 miles). But they are highly detectable by radar, although their speeds, particularly on their downward trajectory can be about 2,000 miles per hour.

Thus, the recent North Korean cruise missile, which was apparently tested at a range of 930 miles according to the North’s government’s sources, means it would be capable of reaching targets in Japan and South Korea, two allies with whom we have mutual defense agreements. Ground or sea-launched, a North Korean cruise missile targeting either of these two nations could easily avoid radar. North Korea also has its own defense agreements with China, perhaps the only country on earth with the power to dissuade or contain North Korea.

The Trump administration managed only an abysmal failure to reach any accord with Kim Jong-Un, succeeding only in raising the North’s malignant and brutal dictator’s international profile in a highly publicized courtship. Despite the Biden administration’s open willingness to negotiate, North Korea has signaled that it has no current intention to meet with representatives of the United States. Cruise missiles are of a lesser priority because they are smaller and have limited range:

“North Korea's cruise missiles usually generate less interest than ballistic missiles because they are not explicitly banned under U.N. Nations Security Council Resolutions… ‘This would be the first cruise missile in North Korea to be explicitly designated a 'strategic' role,’ said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ‘This is a common euphemism for nuclear-capable system.’

“It is unclear whether North Korea has mastered the technology needed to build warheads small enough to be carried on a cruise missile, but leader Kim Jong Un said earlier this year that developing smaller bombs is a top goal. 

“The two Koreas have been locked in an accelerating arms race that analysts fear will leave the region littered with powerful new missiles… South Korea's military did not disclose whether it had detected the North's latest tests, but said on Monday [9/13] it was conducting a detailed analysis in cooperation with the United States.” Reuters, September 13th. 

Days later, each of North and South Korea, hours apart but apparently not in reaction to the other’s test, also tested much longer-range ballistic missiles. The South’s “President Moon Jae-in, who attended the test, said South Korea now had ‘sufficient deterrence to respond to North Korea's provocations at any time,’ urging the South to continue increasing its weapons programmes to ‘overwhelm North Korea's asymmetric power.’” BBC.com, September 15th. What could possibly go wrong?

Dealing with the severely closed society in North Korea, increasingly committed to using its limited resources to fuel military development even as its own population starves, has been a thorn in the side of every U.S. president since the 1953 United Nations armistice ended hostilities from the Korean War. It an armistice; we are still technically at war with North Korea. And the North is notorious for reneging on its agreements. With so much else facing the Biden administration, will this challenge slip between the cracks, another can kicked down a long road?

I’m Peter Dekom, and noting that our policy of trying to force our enemies to comply with our demands via economic sanctions never seems to work when we face a brutal dictator willing to sacrifice his own people’s quality of life, perhaps there is another carrot and stick approach that could gently add reasonableness to this dangerous mix.