Countries With Nuclear Submarines
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to the French over the AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Deal (“Get a grip”)
“This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr Trump used to do.
I am angry and bitter. This isn’t done between allies. It’s really a stab in the back.”
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian’s reaction to the agreement.
The French believe that the UK, U.S. and Australia acted in bad faith by causing Australia to cancel a 2016 $65 billion order of 12 conventionally powered (diesel) submarines to be manufactured by France… to be replaced with a much bigger order of American-made nuclear submarines. Under this new Australia-U.K.-U.S. pact (AUKUS), these three nations have created a new mutual defense/intelligence-sharing agreement to counter rising Chinese aggression in Austral-Asia theater. While there was a several billion-dollar cancelation fee, the French claimed that these three nations conspired behind her back to replace that order for French-made diesel submarines. As France recalled her ambassadors from the US and Australia, a very upset French President, facing an April election, Emmanuel Macron called the entire affair a “breach of confidence.”
This deal brings Australia into the nuclear weapons family, adding Aussie atomic powered undersea vessels to the league of nuclear nations noted above. Nuclear submarines are generally divided into two classes: fast attack vessels armed with torpedoes (which can be nuclear tipped) and cruise missiles and ballistic missile launching platforms carrying multiple warhead missiles able to annihilate entire cities. It is expected that the missiles supplied by the Americans will be of the fast attack variety, but this newest entry into the nuclear family is causing serious consternation, well beyond the really strong French reaction.
North Korea predicted a regional nuclear arms race, the European Union is demanding Australian answers that have so impacted a senior EU member, Indonesia voiced deep concern, New Zealand has banned such nuclear-powered subs from its waters, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, said the AUKUS pact “seriously undermined regional peace and stability, exacerbated the arms race and undermined international nuclear nonproliferation efforts.”
This U.S./French schism, coming as U.S. President Joe Biden addressed the United Nations on September 20th with a message of America’s return to the global community, a potential leader in COVID and climate change challenges, is falling on an increasing number of deaf international ears. Having just pulled out of Afghanistan with little or no notice to allies with troops stationed there, with an immigration crisis that appears to most of the rest of the world as a continuation of Trump policies, a continuation of a one-sided approach to trade agreements as well as sanctions continuing on Cuba, AUKUS seemed to suggest that the United States intends to continue its go-it-alone policy with little or no concern for the interests of many of its traditional allies, and clearly not the rest of the world. The U.S. has even slowed down its trade talks with its “best friend” U.K.
There is no question that the Biden administration has been awkward at best, callous in some cases, in believing that if it acts, “others will follow.” But the growing global reaction is that even with our traditional allies, they are no longer interested in a lockstep adherence to American priorities, intend to act in their own self-interests and will deal with arenas of mutual interest on an ad hoc basis. Without obliging international partners on key issues, the U.S. will be forced to bear an increasing share of its international priorities. Biden is viewed as Trump lite.
The rise of China, the aggressive posture of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has eliminated term limits to enable him increasingly autocratic power for an indefinite period, has been a containment focus of the United States for some time. From its territorial claims based on a man-made expansion of a militarized Spratly island in the South China Sea, its amped up saber rattling against Taiwan, the PRC’s repression in Hong Kong (in breach of treaty obligations) and among its own Uighur Muslim peoples in Western China and its unabated efforts at industrial and traditional espionage have deeply troubled American policymakers. The AUKUS pact is viewed as a justifiable shift in containment policies against an acceleratingly aggressive China.
On September 20th, as Biden addressed the United Nations, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres voiced concern over another potential Cold War between the United States and China, urging the world's two major economic powers to fix their "completely dysfunctional" relationship as soon as possible. The trade war and seeming détente, he noted, were unnecessary distractions from bigger global issues like controlling the COVID pandemic and dealing with the obviously massive destructive force of climate change. There is no question that the Biden administration has some serious relationship rebuilding to do if we are to deal with what have become global existential issues. Or just continue to go-it-alone, a fairly expensive and ineffective policy.
One ray of hope: “In a 30-minute phone call on Wednesday [9/22], the French and US presidents agreed to try to find a way forward… The US acknowledged that the situation would have benefited from ‘open consultations’, and France agreed to send its ambassador back to Washington… In a carefully worded joint statement, the two governments said US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron would ‘open a process of in-depth consultations, aimed at creating the conditions for ensuring confidence.’” BBC.com, September 23rd. Could sanity prevail?
I’m Peter Dekom, and in world filled with enough major issues that must be solved, we can do better, much, much better.
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