Is China Just Intimidating or Backing Into a War

 

There are two clear major vectors for why People’s Republic of China (PRC – the big green mass above) believes that the Republic of China (Taiwan – the tiny island dot above) is and always has been since 1949, an integral and inseparable part of “mainland” China and why it is escalating its threat level to that island nation: 1. traditional reasons with a new warlord and Mao-wannabe (Xi Jinping) reaching for a new status as regional strongman, the leader of the only genuine superpower to challenge the United States and 2. technological: only Taiwan seems to be the only manufacturer capable of supplying the volume of super-sophisticated microchips the PRC vitally needs in every segment of its political economy, from military hardware to exportable commercial manufactures.

The Republic of China arose from an unstable period of internal conflict in in 1928 under the  Kuomintang (KMT; also called "Chinese Nationalist Party"). The rise of communism in 1921 eventually pitted a pre-WWII struggle between Mao Zedong’s Communist Party against Chiang Kai-shek’s KMT in a nasty civil war, which was suspended with a modicum of cooperation of the two feuding factions to fight the Japanese until the latter surrendered in 1945. The Chinese civil war resumed with Communists gaining the upper hand. Brutality and genocide reigned. 

“Although the Kuomintang had an advantage in numbers of men and weapons, controlled a much larger territory and population than their adversaries and enjoyed considerable international support, they were exhausted by the long war with Japan and in-fighting among various generals. They were also losing the propaganda war to the Communists, with a population weary of Kuomintang corruption and yearning for peace.

“In January 1949 Beiping was taken by the Communists without a fight, and its name changed back to Beijing. Between April and November, major cities passed from Kuomintang to Communist control with minimal resistance. In most cases the surrounding countryside and small towns had come under Communist influence long before the cities. Finally, on 1 October 1949, Communists founded the People's Republic of China.

“After 1 October 1949 Chiang Kai-shek and a few hundred thousand Republic of China troops and two million refugees, predominantly from the government and business community, fled from mainland China to the island of Taiwan; there remained in China itself only isolated pockets of resistance. On 7 December 1949 Chiang proclaimed Taipei, Taiwan, the temporary capital of the Republic of China.” Wikipedia. There was never a peace treaty between the Chinas. Over the years, occasional military exchanges marked a tumultuous period in the feud between the two Chinas, with the United States supporting Taiwan, guaranteeing its integrity against PRC aggression by treaty. Taiwan held China’s official seat at the United Nations until Richard Nixon, in 1971, succumbed to PRC insistence that it and not Taiwan should alone have that UN seat (and a seat on the Security Council). The PRC continued to insist that Taiwan belonged to them, rage rising and falling over the years. The American military protection umbrella still covered Taiwan. Most of the world granted Taiwan only secondary status.

After adding massive new landfill to an island in the Spratly chain in the South China Sea, the PRC claimed control of all the area’s seas including fishing and rights of passage… all to the consternation of the other nations in the region. Xi Jinping blew away presidential term limits, began crushing internal dissent in Hong Kong and the Uighurs in western China and escalated his military and political threats against Taiwan. Aside from Xi’s unbridled ego, there was a new reason for the PRC to covet Taiwan.

“On the northwest coast of Taiwan, nestled between mudflats teeming with fiddler crabs and sweet-scented persimmon orchards, sits the world’s most important company that you’ve probably never heard of. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, is the world’s largest contract manufacturer of the semiconductor chips—otherwise known as integrated circuits, or just chips—that power our phones, laptops, cars, watches, refrigerators and more. Its clients include Apple, Intel, Qualcomm, AMD and Nvidia…

“The $550 billion firm today controls more than half the global market for made-to-order chips and has an even tighter stranglehold on the most advanced processors, with more than 90% of market share by some estimates.” Time Magazine, October 1st. 

There is no other manufacturer on earth with a meaningful capacity to make those advanced processors, and the world’s commercial sector is suffering greatly from the severe shortage of those basic components. For consumers, the dearth of new cars, appliances and communication device technology has taken a massive hit. It takes more than a month to “grow” the silicon chips in a super-sterile environment with some of the most complex manufacturing automation on earth. It costs at least $10 billion to build each such a manufacturing facility over a construction period of three years. Intel, America’s leading chip manufacturer, may be building new plants, but as of now, only TSMC can step up to the task. Fearing the PRC’s possible invasion of Taiwan, TSMC is building a new massive facility in Arizona.

Beginning in mid-2020, the PRC began a vigorous campaign of asserting itself in the region by sea and air, playing a cat and mouse game with US naval vessels and Taiwanese air space. Was Xi getting ready for more? PRC military aircraft began overflying Taiwanese air space in increasing numbers and with increasing frequency. 

On October 5th, the BCC reported: “Taiwan has urged Beijing to stop ‘irresponsible provocative actions’ after a record number of Chinese warplanes entered its air defence zone… Monday's [10/4] incursion marks the fourth straight day of incursions by Chinese aircraft, with almost 150 aircraft sent into Taiwan's defence zone in total… Some analysts say the flights could be seen as a warning to Taiwan's president ahead of the island's national day… Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province… However, democratic Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state.

“In an essay for Foreign Affairs magazine on Tuesday [10/4], Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen warned there would be ‘catastrophic’ consequences for peace and democracy in Asia if the island were to fall to China… ‘It would signal that in today's global contest of values, authoritarianism has the upper hand over democracy,’ she wrote… Ms Tsai added that while Taiwan did not seek confrontation, Taiwan would ‘do whatever it takes to defend itself.’

“Taiwan has been reporting for more than a year that China's air force has been repeatedly flying nearby.” Military experts suggest that a massive PRC military effort to annex Taiwan could be accomplished in a matter of days. The PRC wields overwhelming military superiority in the region, well above even the US presence there. We are obligated by treaty to protect Taiwan, and our recent AUKUS military alliance among the US, Australia and the UK is clearly an effort to amplify our containment efforts against an increasingly aggressive PRC. But if the PRC did invade, what’s the worst that could happen? Precisely! This has escalated well beyond a trade war and strained relations between the US and the PRC.

I’m Peter Dekom, and as the world and especially the PRC see a weakened and highly polarized United States, Xi Jinping may just believe that now is the moment to push his claims to Taiwan to the max.