Containment

 

Where government mandates what media is allowed to report, or where large-scale private interests require, it’s not particularly difficult to muster support for Putin’s war. For example, the strictly censored media in the People's Republic of China continues to tow the Kremlin line: Nazis run Ukraine and are jointly (specifically with the United States) developing biological and chemical weapons of mass destruction to foster a fading Western hegemony. Remember our false claim of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of Saddam Hussein to justify invading Iraq? To China, then, Putin is thus saving the world from resident evil. That the United States and Europe are China’s most significant importers falls between the cracks, as the PRC tries to expand its local consumer demand and “Belt and Road” non-US, non-European trading partners.

China is also trying out narratives that might someday justify its possible invasion and annexation of Taiwan. With right-wing NATO political storms brewing, the glue that binds that North America Treaty Organization might be fraying after all, just as Putin and Xi Jinping assumed. Should Putin-admirer Marie Le Pen defeat Emmanuel Macron for the French presidency, that alone might represent the shift that fractures the NATO unity we have seen to date. She would probably join Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who has neither allowed his nation to be used as a military staging ground to supply Ukraine nor accepted sanctions against Russia, and NATO countries like Turkey and Greece that feel the tug of neutrality.

Containing Moscow’s territorial ambitions is hideously expensive, both in terms of global inflation (which is becoming a huge issue with voters in the West) and the cost of aid to Ukraine, which is currently running a monthly deficit of about $5 billion with no real way to replenish its coffers other than through international aid. While Russia has seriously damaged itself no matter the result of the war – even simply on an economic basis that has set Moscow back at least a decade – the notion of containing Russia and any nation choosing to support Putin’s war requires the long-term containment strategy reminiscent of the Cold War.

For example, Belarus faces long-term international condemnation, but its “President,” Alexander Lukashenko is rather unpopular in his own country – having been “elected” in what is widely believed to have been a totally rigged election – so the path to forgiveness, if Lukashenko is deposed, exists. Indeed, the Russian plan for Ukraine also called for placing a “Lukashenko” puppet in Kiev to do Moscow’s bidding. 

Russia understands the trappings of controlling the narrative. State controlled media now openly brags how Russia’s massive clandestine support for Donald Trump in 2016 delivered the U.S. presidency to a Putin ally… and how they are able to repeat the process in 2024. The Russian population, particularly the masses whose only access to media is what the state feeds them, are now showing their support for Putin openly and symbolically. The emblem of the Star of David – often referred to as the Jewish star – is often being worn by non-Jews in Russia as their support for the de-Nazification campaign that Putin claims as justification for his invasion of Ukraine. Even baby strollers are marked with the military “Z” symbol to show support. 

Vladimir Mikhailovich Gundyayev (pictured above with Putin), formally known as Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and all Russia, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church (and all its branches outside of Russia), has fully endorsed Putin’s holy war against Nazis. Just as evangelical pastors in the United States have dictated election choices to their flock, so does Patriarch Kirill push Putin’s agenda over his flock as well.

Indeed, many ethnic Russians in Germany (as well as neighboring Orthodox peoples), and even some ethnic Russians in the United States, embrace Putin’s war. There is a strong belief in Russia that if Trump or one of his supporters wins the 2024 US presidency, America will step back and let Russia return to the league of nations even after it (as believes it will) captures Ukraine. There is a significant faction among the GOP that still admires Putin, even among elected members of Congress, many refusing to decry Putin’s brutal war crimes. Former President Donald Trump still expresses open admiration for Putin, while expressing opposition to the war in Ukraine. I attended an NHL hockey game on April 16th in Los Angeles where there was a group in the stands wearing Russian flags on their shoulders.

Young STEM-educated Russians, able to access the international Internet, are finding ways to leave Russia any way they can. That brain drain will cost Russia dearly in future years as it seeks to recover from its massive military and economic missteps. Putin still believes that the unified European front against him will inevitably collapse, even as the West begins to formulate a long-term containment strategy to keep Russia isolated and stagnant.

The Washington Post’s Daily 202 Newsletters (April 18th) lays out what the West faces in this longer-term effort… assuming that we do not escalate into a full WWIII scenario: “In Washington and numerous other European capitals, officials are planning to apply and maintain pressure on the Kremlin for years to come. Though most NATO leaders — with the notable, albeit ad-libbed, exception of President Biden — have not voiced an overt desire for regime change in Moscow, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has focused a newly galvanized West on a path of confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.” Containment is very expensive.

But without regime change – an issue where global leadership continues to tiptoe – exactly how does the West deal with Putin? He's been labeled a war criminal, but a peace in Ukraine without a regime change requires dealing with this murderous dictator. Do we cut off the natural reliance on at least formal diplomatic relations? UN membership? Security Council membership (which renders the UN almost powerless, but which is almost impossible to change)? Where do we go from here? Short term and beyond?

I’m Peter Dekom, and as brutality seems unstoppable worldwide, the notion of “Never Again” seems an unfulfilled ambition as autocracies everywhere are rising and asserting themselves, even here where autocratic trends are growing fast.