Meanwhile, in the South China Sea

  

Exchange of radio messages between a US Navy P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance plane and the Chinese military in the Spratly Islands:

PRC: “China has sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, as well as surrounding maritime areas. Stay away immediately to avoid misjudgment.”

US Pilot: “I am a sovereign immune United States naval aircraft conducting lawful military activities beyond the national airspace of any coastal state… Exercising these rights is guaranteed by international law, and I am operating with due regard to the rights and duties of all states.”

Has China been tamed by watching the erosion Russia economy, global credibility and moral compass by reason of an invasion of a nation over which Moscow has historical claims? Chinese jets and naval vessels have been buzzing closer and closer, in increasing numbers and frequency, to Taiwan, an island nation with which the United States has a mutual defense treaty. These efforts have been in furtherance of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s escalating claims that Taiwan is and always has been an integral province of the People’s Republic, repeating the traditional party line with an increasingly louder voice. 

Over the past few years, China serially crushed Hong Kong’s democratic form of government, applied PRC laws to local protesters and voters, using force to implement their repressive form of government. After thus violating the applicable treaty between the United Kingdom and China that transferred legal ownership and control of Hong Kong to China in 1997 – the treaty that guaranteed HK would maintain at least 50 years under the equivalent UK legal system (“one nation, two systems”) – Xi shifted his focus to Taiwan and the South China Sea. Xi has repeatedly iterated that Taiwan, categorized by Beijing as a “breakaway province,” has always been a legitimate part of China. His rising saber-rattling against Taiwan has been accompanied by veiled threats that inevitably Taiwan, voluntarily or otherwise, would be formally “returned” to the Chinese fold.

In 1972, as part of then-President Richard Nixon’s historical opening of diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China, the United States formally recognized the PRC as the legitimate “China,” reduced our diplomatic presence in Taipei to a “legation,” which resulted in replacing Taiwan at the United Nations as “China” – including on the UN Security Council with full veto power – with the People’s Republic of China (Beijing). Notwithstanding this transition, the United States continued to protect Taiwan’s territorial integrity, maintaining what the Department of state calls “a robust unofficial relationship,” walking an ambiguous line.

The Department of State website states: “The United States does not support Taiwan independence. Maintaining strong, unofficial relations with Taiwan is a major U.S. goal, in line with the U.S. desire to further peace and stability in Asia. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act provides the legal basis for the unofficial relationship between the United States and Taiwan, and enshrines the U.S. commitment to assist Taiwan in maintaining its defensive capability. The United States insists on the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait differences, opposes unilateral changes to the status quo by either side, and encourages both sides to continue their constructive dialogue on the basis of dignity and respect.”  Wow, is that ambiguous.

As if China’s growing focus on Taiwan mounts, their actions have of late have also driven their expansion of territorial rights well beyond Taiwan. A much stronger PRC military, a more global-connection driven vector (e.g., China’s “Belt and Road” initiative) and what Beijing perceives as a weakening and highly polarized United States, have moved China to take new and aggressive regional initiatives. As you can see in the above map, the Spratly Islands represent a central and strategic place in the South China Sea, a region rich in natural resources, in which China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam all have claims.

China has maintained claims in the region’s Spratly Islands, including serial occupation of several islands, that began in 1956, but their recent adding massive landfill to one of those islands (see above satellite photos) began in 2014. Over the immediately following years, China grew its holdings to encompass a new airfield with clear military purposes. China went on to claim the surrounding area (reflected in the above map) and began enforcing its effort with an increased its sea and air naval patrol of the area. The PRC even ignored a 2016 ruling under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea against such claims, stating that none of the islands met the criteria required to entitle any regional claimant to this island chain as having exclusive rights to its economic resources.

Notwithstanding the Russian invasion, the United States clearly continues to be deeply concerned over what appears to be China’s intention to take control of the entire island region through its new centralized military operations on the above and several adjoining islands. “Adm. John C. Aquilino, U.S. Indo-Pacific commander, said the [recent PRC] hostile actions were in stark contrast to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s past assurances that Beijing would not transform the artificial islands in contested waters into military bases. The efforts were part of China flexing its military muscle, he said… ‘I think over the past 20 years we’ve witnessed the largest military buildup since World War II’ by China, Aquilino said. ‘They have advanced all their capabilities, and that buildup of weaponization is destabilizing to the region.’

“There were no immediate comments from Chinese officials. Beijing maintains its military profile is purely defensive, arranged to protect what it says are its sovereign rights. But after years of increased military spending, China now boasts the world’s second-largest defense budget after the U.S. and is rapidly modernizing its force with weapons systems including the J-20 stealth fighter, hypersonic missiles and two aircraft carriers, with a third under construction.” Associated Press, March 21st. 

This escalation of its navy presence in and around its island holdings, even challenging the free passage in what should be international waters to American naval aircraft and vessels. With what is clearly a failed Russian quick and decisive victory in Ukraine, devastation of her economy with massive economic sanctions, what lessons has the PRC learned? Will China continue to defy the rights of other nations in the Spratly chain and claim complete sovereignty against a democratic Taiwan, making sure everyone knows the PRC’s military is present to enforce her claims? Or will China begin to moderate its claims in light of the lessons of Ukraine? Time will tell. 

I’m Peter Dekom, and if there were ever a time to up our regional presence in and around the South China Sea to convince China that their perceived weakness of the American state is an unfounded myth, it is now.