As the World Pushes Back, How’re Cars Doing in Energy Land

 

Prices at the pump are pushing inflation up to an annual 8.6%, the highest we have faced in almost half a century. There is also little likelihood that anyone, Democrat or Republican, can do a darn thing to bring that cost, and the resulting impact on shipping pricing, down significantly anytime soon. Unless the OPEC+ nations raise output massively, there isn’t any real alternative for more product in that global marketplace. Sure, we may be able to limit or severely tax profiteers – namely oil companies who benefit from the global market price per barrel, retail stations who charge a percentage mark-up and shipping companies whose rates have soared into multiple, huge price increases (based on a cost-plus pricing structure and anti-competitive consortia that fix prices) – although much of this is beyond our territorial reach. So…

There has been a major leap in consumer demand for electric and hybrid cars, until recently not a favorite of big-three US carmakers, because the profits they make on smaller cars pale in comparison to what they can make on bigger SUVs and luxury models. Tesla has pushed upscale into the electric vehicle market, and world automobile manufacturers have heard the call… variety has begun. And while the electricity they consume has to come from somewhere (often fossil fuel-driven power generation), according to Forbes (June 1st), “British expert Nick Molden, chief executive of Emissions Analytics, said with average sources of grid power, battery electric vehicles cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by about 50%, while a hybrid cuts them by about 30%.” Good numbers that can stand to improve with more clean electrical power generation.

With that, after the initial recent surge in consumer demand for total or partial electric-powered vehicles, reality reversed that in May. “The backslide in Q1 2022 may be due to ongoing chip and shipping issues. What has caused the dramatic decline in May 2022 has yet to be pinpointed, but many industry insiders point to increasing inflation and a possible upcoming recession.” Associated Press, June 7th. Dealers jacked up sticker prices, and order periods for EV cars, still reeling from chip issues, got longer and longer.

In the past two years, I have taken my hybrid on long road trips, one from Los Angeles to Santa Fe, New Mexico and another from LA to Puget Sound. Combining both trips with reasonably priced hotels, I only found one hotel with an available charging station. Level 2 (240 volts) at that, so it takes “anywhere from 6-12 hours to charge an electric car. The time it will take to fully recharge an electric car will depend on the size of your car’s battery. A level 2 charger will give your car anywhere from 14 to 34 miles of charge per hour depending on the amperage of the charger.” gearandcylinder.com.

I even have an EV-to-Tesla plug adaptor (about $160), but I wound up using gasoline 97%. Level 3 fast-chargers (400 and 900 volts) are so rare, I’ve never seen one. So, if you like to drive for your vacations, “stand back and stand by” to a. pay through the nose for gasoline or diesel, or, if you have an all-electric vehicle, b. pay through the nose (or camp or crash with “others”) for all those extra overnight hotel stops. Limited range is expensive any way you look at it.

The weak link in EV cars is obviously battery capacity. The range killer. But there is reason for optimism on that front. “At some point, the development of solid-state batteries—in which electrons flow through a solid material instead of a liquid or gel—is going to lead to electric vehicles that can go much farther on a charge and battery-storage systems that can hold more energy while taking up less space. We just don’t know when that is going to be.

“But in [early June], two announcements offer reasons to think the answer is ‘sooner rather than later.’… First, Solid Power, a Colorado-based company developing solid-state EV batteries for partners including Ford and BMW, said it has completed installation of a “pilot production line” that is capable of making about 300 battery cells per week… Second, University of Houston researchers published a paper showing how they have developed a glasslike material that is highly effective as an electrolyte—the part of a battery that electrons pass through during cycles of charging and discharging—for use in a sodium-sulfur battery for energy storage.” InsideClimateNews.org, June 9th. We’re moving, slowly, but forward, but we need infrastructure.

The US does not have sufficient capacity to make electric cars viable for much of anything other than very short (hybrid or very long with gasoline) or moderately short (EV) journeys. Mostly errands, commuting and local leisure time activities. With a GOP Senate anxious to limit federal spending, despite the ultimate benefit to consumers, the obvious large rollout of viable charging stations, and the cost of a massive shift away from fossil fuels, is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

As the above chart from the June 2nd InsideClimateNews.org indicates, we have at least increased our power generation to 39% from non-fossil fuel resources (although half of that is still from nuclear plants). But remember, we do not even have a sufficiently efficient power grid to deliver that needed and rising demand for electrical power to large swaths of the country.

OK, while we are getting better, we are a very long way from where we need to be to meet even our modest clean energy goals by 2035, which is still way too little, way too late: “From January to March, renewable energy power plants generated 242,956 gigawatt-hours, which was 23.5 percent of U.S. electricity generation, both records—an increase from 19.5 percent in the first quarter of 2021, and 20.8 percent in the full year. The growth was thanks in part to more than 80 new wind and solar plants that went online during the quarter. The figures are from the Energy Information Administration…

“As renewables gained ground, coal lost a little. Coal was at 21.2 percent for the quarter, down a fraction of a percentage point, both from the same quarter last year and the prior year… Natural gas remains the country’s leading fuel for power plants, with gas-fired plants producing 35.2 percent of U.S. electricity generation in the first quarter. This was a slight increase from 34.7 percent in the first quarter of last year, and a decrease from 38.3 percent in all of 2021… Natural gas prices have spiked this year, but that hasn’t yet translated into a substantial decrease in the use of gas to produce electricity.

“[Writer Dan Gearino] was expecting to see a decrease in hydropower, considering the many reports of declining water levels at major hydroelectric plants. But hydropower was up, with 7.4 percent of the U.S. total for the quarter compared to 7 percent in the first quarter of last year and 6.3 percent in an unusually low 2021. The main reason for the increase was that the two leading states for hydropower, Washington and Oregon, reported large gains from their plants, and most other states reported at least some increase. This is one to watch as we head into a hot summer… More than 120 new power plants began operating in the first quarter, most of which were wind or solar farms.” Dan Gearino writing for InsideClimateNews.org.

Putin’s war, second- and third-world resistance (Colombia, for example, is likely to increase fossil fuel extraction and usage; India is doing very little, and China is still building coal-fired plants) are less than encouraging, but we must lead and set an example. Given the searing heat being experienced globally, air conditioning use will rise, much of it from older, inefficient units. It’s time for alternative energy to be this nation’s business focus. There are profound opportunities and massive, good jobs just waiting for enough of us to care. Still waiting.

I’m Peter Dekom, and please enjoy what is likely to be our hottest recorded summer on record.