What’s Left is Not Right – Is France (Like the United States) Ungovernable?

 

Looking at the above map, prepared by the BBC, the largest party after the June 19th election, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble (gold above), is no longer the majority party in France. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne suggests that without a clear parliamentary majority, the National Assembly (the most powerful part of the French parliament) borders on “ungovernable.” Even with 245 seats, Ensemble is still 44 seats short of a majority. Right-wing populist Marie Le Pen’s National Rally (darker blue above) got 89 seats in the 577-member parliament, up from a pre-election total of eight. On the other side of the political spectrum, the leftist Nupes coalition (brown above), led by hardliner Jean-Luc Melenchon, secured 131 seats to become the primary opposition force, fairly consistent with past election results.

Both Nupes and National Rally share a “France first” focus, and both seem likely to push against EU/NATO support of the war in Ukraine. Putin has to be smiling. Indeed, both Nupes and National Rally are sizeable enough to require key cabinet appointments. “Le Pen's far-right party now has a sufficient number of legislators to constitute a formal group at the National Assembly and request seats in other committees, including a parliamentary investigation committee and those focusing on defense and foreign policy…

“She told reporters: ‘We are entering the parliament as a very strong group and as such we will claim every post that belongs to us." As the biggest single party in the parliament — Macron and Melenchon both lead coalitions — she said National Rally will seek to chair the parliament’s powerful finance committee, one of the eight commissions that oversee the national budget.” Associated Press, June 20th. In the last election, Le Pen’s party received large loan from Moscow. The incredible increase in Le Pen’s hold in the National Assembly reflect a Trump-like rise of the populist right.

While coalition governments are common in most parliamentary forms of government, they have not worked well in France. The June 20th BBC.com tells us, “Minority governments are a rarity in France, and even when there was one in 1988 under President François Mitterrand, he was only 11 seats short of an outright majority… [Olivier Véran, the minister in charge of parliamentary relations] believes the government will be able to attract support from other political groups to get important reforms passed, particularly when it comes to the cost of living: ‘I can't for a second imagine that a majority cannot emerge in the coming weeks on the spending power law.’”

But as for a true majority coalition, neither Le Pen nor Melenchon appear willing to join with Macron. With 64 seats, even the right-wing UDI Republican Party (light blue above) seems unwilling to form a coalition with Macron’s party. The government, hobbled by polarization, may form ad hoc coalitions on specified pieces of legislation, but a single majority party rule has left the building. For most French citizens, unsurprisingly, the cost of living is the driving issue. Just like a rising number of Americans, French citizens are blaming incumbent Macron and his no-longer-majority party for their financial plight.

“President Macron has laid out a series of plans to tackle the spiraling cost of living, including food vouchers and enhanced benefits. Another big reform is gradually raising the retirement age from 62-65, which has proved unpopular with much of the electorate.

“Public Service Minister Stanislas Guerini said there should be talks with the Republicans on the mainstream right but also with anyone else ‘who sees an interest in moving forward with reforms that are good for the country.’ Louis Aliot, from Marine Le Pen's National Rally, said if the government included measures his party wanted, such as a cut in sales tax (VAT) then his parliamentary colleagues would ‘make the effort to vote for those measures.’

“However, the initial response from the right-wing Republicans to an alliance was not good. Party chairman Christian Jacob said: ‘We've campaigned in opposition, we are in opposition, we'll stay in opposition.’ Another MP, Aurélien Pradié, said he did not have same vision of society as President Macron and did not accept ‘forced marriages.’” BBC.com. If this proclivity to blame the incumbent for inflationary costs is rising in France, even if that means possibly letting Putin win in Ukraine by cutting NATO support, does that suggest that the US midterms will follow suit? At least so far, Le Pen party does not seem to have emboldened any significant rise in local militia, but then France has reasonable gun control laws where possessing an AR-15 would be a serious crime.

I’m Peter Dekom, and there is a growing global left-right schism, with powerful feelings, in a significant part of the Western world… enhanced by a contraction of centrist sentiments.