A Chili Reception

 

There’s nothing like a nice warm cup of java on a chilly morning… maybe even a warm morning. I am not sure if you have noticed, but if you add the Big Island (Hawaii) to the above map (from NOAA), every one of the above coffee-producing regions is losing land where coffee beans can be grown. And prices, particularly for premium beans, is skyrocketing. Kona Extra Fancy and Jamaican Mountain Blue and almost any “Peaberry” bean are double or triple the cost of just three years ago. It’s not subtle.

Coffee originated in the Ethiopian highlands long before it migrated to the rest of the world. It first took hold in the Arabian Peninsula (hence the name Arabica for the predominant bean, which accounts for 70% of all coffee consumed). It is an essential and ubiquitous crop, one that embraces farmers and consumers in a big way.

As much as this blog is about coffee – and coffee lovers now consume more than 2.25 billion cups a day – it is also the story of what is happening to agriculture and global food production. This is not about high costs because of increased shipping (based on the high price of oil) or fertilizer; it is another “canary in the coalmine” tale of climate change woe. Coffee bean quality, availability and price are all going in the wrong direction. According to Climate.gov, “Coffee counts among the most valuable tropical export crops on Earth, cultivated across more than 27 million acres. Small-scale farmers produce about 70 percent of the world’s coffee, and as many as 120 million people depend directly or indirectly on coffee production for their economic survival…

“Optimal coffee-growing conditions include cool to warm tropical climates, rich soils, and few pests or diseases. The world’s Coffee Belt spans the globe along the equator, with cultivation in North, Central, and South America; the Caribbean; Africa; the Middle East; and Asia. Brazil is now the world’s largest coffee-producing country…

“If Earth’s climate continues to warm over the coming decades, obstacles to coffee cultivation will multiply… Arabica coffee’s optimal temperature range is 64°–70°F (18°C–21°C). It can tolerate mean annual temperatures up to roughly 73°F (24°C).” Ah, but those temperature-friendly areas are withering, and if we cannot find new regions or create new strains of quality beans, coffee just might not be part of our daily consumption rituals. And tea is not too far behind.

“With temperatures rising due to global warming, though, lands suitable for coffee growing will shift outside the traditional Coffee Belt [as reflected in the above map]. According to the 2018 World Coffee Research annual report, 47% of global coffee production comes from countries that could lose over 60% of suitable coffeelands by the year 2050. Compounding the issue even further, another study finds that 60% of wild coffee varieties could be at risk of extinction due to climate change…” Sprudge.com, July 15, 2021. Last November, the World Economic Forum also noted that as the world heats up, even those premium growing areas are experiencing less moisture, hotter sunlight, higher disease and insect damage as well as more carbon dioxide, all of which negatively impact flavor (read: quality) as well as growability. Oh, and we do not have to wait until 2050 for the pain. It is here in a big way… now.

Desertification has already caused migration and wars (e.g., the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria representing desperate Sunni farmers), but even as our western and midwestern farm states face lower rainfall, limited snowmelts and dwindling aquifers, relatively “rich” Americans are still able to buy their way out of much of the pain. We may complain about inflation, but so far, we just grit our teeth and pay more. But shortages of basics sneak up on us as Sing Yee Ong, writing for Bloomberg (June 10th), points out: “Brace yourselves, spicy-food lovers: The world is now facing a sriracha shortage… Huy Fong Foods Inc., the maker of one of the nation’s most beloved condiments, has been forced to suspend production of its iconic spicy sauces due to a shortage of chili peppers.

“The Irwindale [California] company confirmed Wednesday [6/8] that a shortage of peppers in its inventory had affected production of Sriracha Hot Chili Sauce, Chili Garlic and Sambal Oelek… What appears to be a letter from the company to buyers of the products, dated April of this year, recently came to light online… ‘Currently, due to weather conditions affecting the quality of chili peppers, we now face a more severe shortage of chili,’ the letter reads. ‘Unfortunately, this is out of our control and without this essential ingredient we are unable to produce any of our products.’…

“Extreme weather, pandemic supply chain snarls and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have all taken their toll on food production this year. Sriracha is just the latest item on a growing list of foods in short supply around the world, which includes chicken, popcorn, salami and fries.” The baby formula shortfall was a product of misguided manufacturing policies and practices. That will be fixed. But can we fix the much, much, much bigger agricultural reality? Less productive farmland. More insects and disease impacting crops. A growing global population facing a massive contract in food production… from wars… and mostly climate change.

I’m Peter Dekom, and as we watch a continuing litany of doing vastly too little vastly too late, I wonder when we are going wake up and realize we really cannot afford the cost of not stemming climate change immediately.