Russia’s Isolated Little Submarine Base from Hell

 

You will notice that that tiny spot of land above – identified as Kaliningrad Oblast (a Russian administrative district) – is at least two countries separated (by land) from the rest of Russia. A land traveler to and from Russia would have to pass through at least one NATO country. And since rail cargo traffic through Lithuania (a NATO member state) into Russia violates many of the NATO/EU trade sanctions against Moscow, Lithuania has blocked obviously violative rail transshipment. 

But make no mistake, that oblast is an integral part of Mother Russia itself. Not some distant territory with a loose affiliation. It is also one of the rare ice-free major Russian seaports, a major naval base for Russia’s Baltic Naval Fleet. From missile-laden naval vessels of varying sizes, submarines, minesweepers, troop ships to a vast array of civilian cargo ships. Satellite imagery suggests that nuclear weapons are probably stored in Kaliningrad as well. 

Russian ships obviously traverse the Baltic along the well-traveled St Petersburg (formerly Leningrad)-Kaliningrad route, including a final stretch through the Gulf of Finland. Stretching along NATO countries from Germany, Demark, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and NATO applicants Finland and Sweden, the Baltic is surrounded by nations who feel severely threatened by expansionist Russia. Russia’s presence on the Baltic is thus contained… and the gateway from the Baltic Sea to the North Sea (and hence the Atlantic) requires Russian ships pass through narrow straits guarded by Denmark, Norway (a NATO nation) and Sweden. Given the shipping and trading sanctions applied by all of the above non-Russian nations, what could possibly go wrong?

Well, the June 6th BBC.com lays out the obvious rising confrontation: “Kaliningrad, which has no land border with Russia, remains of strategic importance to Moscow… Russia has warned Lithuania of ‘serious’ consequences after it banned the rail transfer of some goods to the Russian territory of Kaliningrad… Russia ‘will certainly respond to such hostile actions,’ senior security official Nikolai Patrushev said.

“Lithuania says it is only following the EU sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine… The western territory [Kaliningrad] was annexed from Germany after World War Two in 1945 and is bordered by EU and Nato members Lithuania and Poland… The region relies heavily on rail transit via Lithuania… The EU has echoed Lithuania's statement, saying that the country is just implementing sanctions imposed by the EU as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

“During visit on Tuesday [6/21] to Kaliningrad, Mr Patrushev said the blockade by Lithuania was instigated by the West ‘in violation of... international law.’.. The secretary of Russia's Security Council warned that ‘appropriate measures’ would be taken ‘in the near future… Their consequences will have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania," he added, without giving any further details…

“The EU sanctions list includes coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology - and Russia's Kaliningrad Region Governor, Anton Alikhanov, Alikhanov said the ban would cover around 50% of the items that Kaliningrad imports… As a member of the Nato military alliance, Lithuania is protected by collective defence treaties.” Some in the highest reaches of NATO are signaling that we must be ready for a direct Western military engagement with Russia. “The new head of the British Army has issued a rallying cry to troops - telling them they need to be ready to face Russia on the battlefield.

“Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, who started the job last week, addressed all ranks and civil servants in an internal message on 16 June, seen by the BBC… Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows the need ‘to protect the UK and be ready to fight and win wars on land,’ he says… He adds the Army and allies must now be ‘capable of...defeating Russia.’

“Gen Sir Patrick noted in the message that he was the first Chief of the General Staff ‘since 1941 to take command of the Army in the shadow of a land war in Europe involving a major continental power.’” BBC.com, June 19th. As France’s recent election suggests (elevating Putin friendly representatives into its National Assembly), as our own civil fracturing reveals a potential mortal schism that threatens to take down the United States itself, as much of the world is severely focused on rising stagflation that was triggered by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, there is a genuine question of the NATO/EU willingness to stay the course against a violent expansionist Vladimir Putin.

I’m Peter Dekom, and both world wars were begun by precisely the same expansionist ambitions by greedy, egotistical zealots who believed that could impose their view of the world on anyone who might disagree.