There is no meaningful difference between Donald Trump’s and Joe Biden’s approach to China. Hostile disengagement, maintaining the “strategic ambiguity” of America’s policy towards Taiwan, sanctions, tariffs and mutual lambasting with no routinized private levels toward diplomatic de-escalation. Remember, every public statement by high-ranking officials of either nation is always intended for a domestic audience, not the other side. If there are members of the press and cameras present, absent announcing a new détente or treaty, you can bet that nothing positive will come of it. Successful diplomacy is seldom conducted in public.
When the Peoples’ Republic demonstrated its potential control over the Taiwanese straits (1995-95), when China fired a series of saber-rattling missiles into that sea, the US sent a major naval force in response. Ouch! There was nothing China could do about it. Since then, corrected for inflation, China has upped its military budget sevenfold, constructed a strategic manmade island military base in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, and built its offensive and defensive military capability to be the second most powerful country on earth. She has nuclear submarines with underwater missile launching capability, and while neither of its two aircraft carriers are nuclear, a third carrier is expected to be atomically powered. It’s aircraft and missiles are state of the art, abundant and manned by experienced officers.
For those who fear that the latest massive live-fire show of force in the waters surrounding Taiwan represents an immediate threat of invasion, rather dramatic evidence that as military defenses stand now, China most probably could overwhelm Taiwan in short order, the reality is that result is not imminent. Even if China has near-term ambitions of taking that island nation, she would be totally stupid to give up the element of surprise amidst her show of force. That said, the rest of Asia is watching. Is the United States willing to make its intentions to protect Taiwan clear… or are we going to continue to tease China with our mouthing acceptance of the “one China, two systems” goal for Taiwan while we continue to arm what China calls a breakaway province of the PRC? The China of today is not remotely the weak China of 1995/6. Their forces are clearly dominant in the region; our forces are spread thinly around the world.
For Taiwan, China’s “one China, two systems” Hong Kong handover treaty with the UK has been abrogated at every level. Hong Kong has long since lost its autonomy, its separate legal system and democratic institutions decimated. Halfway through its 50-year treaty to preserve an independent HK, Hong Kong is now a crushed part within China’s repressive and authoritarian grip. To Taiwan, this is convincing evidence that the PRC is incapable of living with two systems, regardless of her pledges and configurations. China does not care. Taiwan is a most essential part of even our own modern supply chain; its TSMC is the only high-end chip maker capable of meeting global demand. Even as TSMC is building a comparable facility in Arizona, the global economy, very much including the United States and China, is totally dependent on TSMC’s ability to continue its operations at full tilt. It takes three years to build a comparable manufacturing plant and then 6 months to grow the underlying super-chips.
Both China and the United States have been playing up their power and strengths for their own domestic agendas. China President Xi faces an economy that is underperforming, his open hostility to local capitalists has cost jobs, and his zero-tolerance COVID policy has slammed on the economic brakes every time the nation signals it might be able to move on. The United States faces major China ownership interests in major American companies, from movie theaters to computer manufacturing, from hotels to office towers.
For Biden, the subtext of China’s manufacturing taking away American jobs – even in the current era where there two job openings for every jobseeker – and threatening global peace, particularly with her continuing to be Russia’s major buyer of oil and gas, are tempting “side issues,” dangerous to say the least. That China could dictate US policy, demand that the US forswear any official visits to Taipei (a la House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent foray) and simply demand that the United States accept the inevitable, is unacceptable. It’s no secret that President Xi believes that the current level of polarization in the United States will eventually render the United States unable to maintain its level of military and economic power in the world. For both nations, being tough over Taiwan is a distraction meant to instill “patriotism” in the domestic marketplace and shove more obvious local issues into the background.
The United States seems to be committed to maintaining the status quo, living with that “strategic ambiguity,” hoping to drag out a more aggressive China’s lustful ambitions to force Taiwan into the PRC. Is American support for Taiwan a litmus test for the rest of Asia, wary of China’s aggressive push into the South China Sea and beyond? At the very least, the United States needs to up its supply of defensive weapons to Taiwan, implementing a so-called “defensive porcupine strategy.” There is little doubt that China could take Taiwan, perhaps very quickly if it chose… but at what cost? With the Sino-Russian alliance being tested, is China running out of time to make her military move against Taiwan? But how much is the United States willing to risk incenting a PRC blitzkrieg attack that could take Taiwan, perhaps in a matter of days? And if the US does not rise to the occasion, what is the message for the rest of Asia?
Meanwhile, China has pulled out of all levels of diplomatic communications with the United States, including a very necessary combined effort regarding addressing escalating climate change damage. Even during the height of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, there were serious ongoing conversations at the top… even a red phone for emergency discussion between heads of state. But with China today, there is nothing. And nothing could easily explode into a war that no one can win, especially where nuclear weapons can end life as we know it. We can expect cyberattacks to rise in frequency and intensity, and China’s unending level of industrial espionage can only escalate.
The recent massive PRC military exercises around Taiwan went on without a hitch. Everything they wanted to happen did. To China, it was magnificent. It was also a confidence builder that China could, if it wanted, take Taiwan very quickly. To the United States, it just might have been an indicator that: 1. We need to reestablish communication with China, while at the same time, 2. Find a way to enhance Taiwan’s capacity to defend itself much, much better.
I’m Peter Dekom, and neither American political party seems to know how to position the United States against this most troubling foe, even as China itself stumbles in the face of new political elections.
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