Putin: The Arctic is Mine… and More

   

Back on March 8th, in my Russia Pattern of Outrageous Territorial Claims… in the Western Hemisphere blog, I presented a reasonably detailed description of Putin’s claims to the Northwest Passage, including all the mineral and fishing rights in the Arctic. I noted that on August 2, 2007, during Putin’s reign, two Russian submersibles planted the above titanium Russian flag under the North Pole. While that was big news in Russia, it slipped by in the Western press as an amusing side story. The New York Times of that date reported: “The dive was a symbolic move to enhance the [Russian] government’s disputed claim to nearly half of the floor of the Arctic Ocean and potential oil or other resources there… The expedition, covered intensely by Russian news organizations and state-controlled television, mixed high-seas adventure with the long Russian tradition of polar exploration. But it was also an openly choreographed publicity stunt.

“Inside the first of the mini-submarines to reach the sea floor were two members of Russia’s lower house of Parliament, one of whom, Artur Chilingarov, had led the expedition to seek evidence reinforcing Russia’s claim over the largely uncharted domain… That claim, which has no current legal standing, rests on a Russian assertion that the seabed under the pole, called the Lomonosov Ridge, is an extension of Russia’s continental shelf and thus Russian territory.” But as my blog points out, today Russia’s polar fleet dwarfs any other accumulation of military vessels in the region.

That presence starts with Russia’s fleet of icebreakers, which is by far “the largest in the world. As of 2019, the fleet include[d] around 30 diesel-powered icebreakers. Russia is the only country in the world to boast several icebreakers powered by nuclear energy [like the one pictured above]. Apart from 4 nuclear-powered icebreakers, Russian fleet also includes the 'Sevmorput' LASH carrier—the largest and currently the only nuclear-powered cargo ship.” Arctic-Russia.com. That fleet is even bigger today.

While the United States currently has the most nuclear-powered aircraft carriers (eleven), 66 nuclear-powered submarines, including fifty nuclear-powered attack submarines including more than a dozen ballistic missile submarines and currently deploys seven battle fleets around the world, China has concentrated her navy in and around Asia, and Russia currently overwhelms the NATO-nation presence in the Arctic. Two regions where our fleets are not remotely competitive.

Despite Russia’s massive financial drain from its war against Ukraine, Putin’s Navy Day (July 31st) speech in St. Petersburg justified his program of challenging US/NATO oceanic dominance everywhere, emphasizing that Russia intends to continue expansion and control in the Arctic as well as the Black and Azov seas (which severely impacts Ukraine) as high priorities. Citing as Russia’s greatest threat, "the strategic policy of the USA to dominate the world's oceans" and the movement of the NATO military alliance closer towards Russia's borders, Putin presented a 55-page statement of his going forward naval policy, which outlines the broad strategic aims of Russia's navy, including its ambitions as a "great maritime power" which will extend over the entire world. Desperately seeking to restore Russia’s former status as a top world power (as the anchor of the Soviet Union), Russia presented its "comprehensive strengthening of Russia's geopolitical position," focusing on the Arctic and the Black and Azov seas.

If diplomacy fails, a likely result of Russia’s aggressive claims, Putin stated that Russia would not shy away from using military force. This would include equipping the new Admiral Gorshkov class of frigates (“Project 22350”) with Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, which Putin claims to be unstoppable by NATO defenses. The first of this new class, the Adminral Gorshkov (above right), to be so equipped in months, would then be deployed in accordance with Russian strategic interests. "The key thing here is the capability of the Russian navy... It is able to respond with lightning speed to all who decides to infringe on our sovereignty and freedom," said Putin. The missiles can also be launched from submarines.

So, what is going to fund this massive Russian naval expansion? Aside from military hardware and vodka, Russia does not have a significant manufacturing/export base. It is overwhelmingly a natural resource extractor and exporter: minerals, foodstuffs, timber but far and away, oil and gas. As a member of OPEC+, Russia’s petroleum output mirrors the oil production capacity of Saudi Arabia, roughly 12% of global capacity. Even in 2021, a January 21st Reuters report tells us: “According to its Finance Ministry, Russian oil and gas revenues exceeded initial plans by 51.3% in 2021, totalling 9.1 trillion roubles ($119 billion). In October alone, revenues were 1.1 trillion roubles, or almost $500 million per day.” Since the Ukraine war, those dollar numbers have almost doubled, despite sanctions, with willing customers from China to India, and indeed, even Western Europe, bracing for a cold winter with a dramatic dependence on Russian natural gas.

Also cashing in are Western oil giants, making record profits from the surge in the cost of fossil fuels. According to second quarter filings, for example, Texas-based Exxon earned $17.9 billion in the quarter, more than three times what it earned in 2021, while California-based Chevron, also tripled its profits to $11.6 billion. Both companies nearly doubled year-over-year quarterly sales, with Exxon going from $67.7 billion to $115.6 billion and Chevron from $36 billion to $65 billion. So as GOP-controlled oil and gas states oppose addressing climate change by replacing our massive use of oils and gas with alternative energy, that challenge to every climate change-oriented bill proposed by the Biden administration, their claim of “America First” patriotism is anything but! Oil and gas are the monetary engines behind brutal autocracies the world over.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the red state lock-step rear guard effort to stop an accelerated transition to alternative energy not only releases greater natural disasters from uncontained climate change; it also is the major force behind “Making Russia Great Again!”