What is the Weakest Link?

Putin is watching the shifting political winds around him very carefully. Will the U.S. mid-terms elect a pro-Trump Congress? Trump and Putin hit it off, and Russian ministries have excelled at using American social media to spread mis- and disinformation targeting gullible, conspiracy theory-driven voters, putting stuff up as quickly as it is taken down. They definitely prefer MAGA candidates as both destabilizers and the most likely to pull support from Ukraine. Could it be Italy with its recently isolationist neofascist government? How about Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, a White Christian nationalist with close ties to Vladimir Putin? He’s not a champion of the sanctions NATO has applied against Russia. Turkey’s Recep Erdoğan has presented himself as a potential mediator in the Ukraine war. Despite Turkey’s membership in NATO, Erdoğan has never been fully on board with the open hostility with Russia.

Most Russia experts believe Putin will not immediately launch a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine, hoping that his new deployment of mobilized forces will give him a better hand. But most also agree that if Putin faces defeat and humiliation, such a limited nuclear attack is very much on the table. NATO’s response is not clear, but a nuke will definitely escalate the conflict, perhaps to the breaking point. These experts expect Putin to wait out the winter before making up his mind. Why wait until winter passes?

While Europeans say they will steel themselves against the approaching hardships, a fiercely cold winter may turn the tide. Already facing average cost increases north of 10%, Europeans were reminded of their vulnerabilities when mysterious explosions under the natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany shut down that resource. Naturally, Europeans believe it was Russian malevolence that sent that message.

Indeed, it is that German dependence on Russian natural gas, the impact of cost increases on Europe’s most vital economy, that Putin is particularly interested in. Having served in East Germany as a senior KGB officer during the Cold War, Putin is totally fluent in German and reads their press voraciously. He is aware that Germany, probably more than any other nation on earth, is obsessed with the danger of hyperinflation, which was the major force that propelled the rise of the Nazi Party in the 1920s.

And the weather is getting colder in Germany. Still clinging to their anti-war beliefs after the horrors of Hitler’s WWII experience, Germans have mixed feelings about the war. While Putin is the most Hitler-like leader to appear in Europe, invading neighboring countries in a Hitler-like lust for lebensraum, believing that he just might be able to reunite the old Soviet empire, containing him requires Germans to reinvolve themselves in a European war. At severe cost. Germans facing power bills that are multiples of what they paid just a few months ago, watching the cost of food skyrocket, are already spending less where they can. Those in the middle- and lower-income brackets are cutting back on shopping, going out or traveling, and many are literally turning off the lights and heating in their homes to be able to afford life.

For too many Germans, the anxiety borders on intolerable. Writing for the October 4th Los Angeles Times, Erik Kirschbaum, explains further: “[This inflation realities are] exacerbating the anxiety of a dark, cold and possibly even hunger-filled winter ahead have been the ominous saber-rattling from Russian President Vladimir Putin about possibly turning to nuclear weapons against Ukraine and the West. The mystery-shrouded explosions at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, damaging natural gas pipelines that had not long ago delivered nearly half of Germany’s supplies, have unsettled the country even more.

“‘No one will freeze or starve to death this winter — can the German government really back up that promise?’ was the entirely earnest episode title of a popular prime-time talk show called ‘Anne Will’ on the ARD public broadcasting network recently.

“On Thursday [9/29], the German government announced a $200-billion relief package designed to help Germans pay heating and electricity bills that for many have already doubled or, in some cases, tripled. Germans have been urged to conserve energy, turn down their thermostats and take cold or shorter showers, while authorities have shut off the lights and turned the heat down in public buildings… Putin is probably aware of opinion polls showing Germans to be more wary than others about the war and haunted about inflation, energy scarcity and warfare spreading to their peace-obsessed land.

“A recent survey for ARD by the respected Infratest Dimap institute found support for the German government and the tough sanctions regime against Russia sliding from a 66% approval rating in March to 53% in September. When asked what their views would be if sanctions disrupted energy supplies, approval dropped from 68% in March to 54% in September… The institute also found in an April poll that 80% of Germans were worried the war in Ukraine would cause lasting damage to Germany’s economy, 76% were afraid that Germany would suffer energy shortages, and 64% worried that the war would spread from Ukraine across Europe.”

Germany’s support in supplying hardware to Ukraine has been lukewarm at best. This hesitancy is evidenced by Germany’s pathetic offer, immediately preceding the Russian invasion, to send 5,000 helmets to Ukraine. “Germany has been accused of dragging its feet on supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself — at first refusing to send any weapons over fears it could antagonize Putin and lead to a wider war, and then coming up with a litany of changing reasons for withholding its highly regarded armored vehicles, tanks and air defense systems.

“‘Germany’s reputation as a reliable partner in Europe is taking a nosedive,’ said Jaeger, pointing to a survey last week by the German Marshall Fund that found perceptions of Germany’s reliability have plummeted by more than 10 percentage points this year in Poland, Turkey, the United States and Spain.” LA Times. While the United States is much more supportive Ukraine’s defense, “inflation” caused by this war is being pinned on Democrats… and even here, a reversal in our support of Kyiv is not guaranteed given our highly polarized electorate. And we are an ocean away from any part of Europe.

I’m Peter Dekom, and even as most Americans do not believe that Putin has a chance of prevailing against surprisingly powerful Ukrainian resistance… he just might… and would not be the first international pariah to survive failure.