As MAGA’s creator and GOP’s purported ideological leader, just-released post-midterm voter numbers tell us that Donald Trump’s issue vectors cost the Republican Party the normal off-year victory for the political party not in power. Indeed, the closer candidates cozied up to or were sponsored by Trump himself, on average, the worse they fared. We know that just based on the mid-term results. But a deeper dive into who actually voted explains what happened.
Oddly, the GOP unexpectedly had a better turnout than did the Democrats. Huh? About a third of the states released, by mid-January, their voter demographics. Looking at the raw data in those states, it is obvious that the Dems would not have dulled the expected “red wave” without capturing both a larger share of independent and Republican voters. Huh, again? As part of its Essential Politics section, the January 23rd Los Angeles Times (David Lauter writing) presented some most interesting observations.
On a broad-stroke review, states with controversial issues and candidates produced greater turnouts. Where younger voters did show up in bigger numbers, the results skewed toward the Dems. Where the same old/same old election took place, the turnout was lower. And in some states, the constituency for an entire party just plain did not show up. Florida, with its traditional conservative north and more liberal south, gave extreme right-wing populist candidates such a massive victory that the state turned bright throbbing red.
Governor Ron DeSantis polled almost 20 percentage points higher than Charlie Crist, his Democratic opponent. The Democratic turnout was abysmal: “Among voters younger than 30, the number of Democrats voting there in 2022 was down 38% compared with the 2018 midterm, the state’s voter file shows. Latino turnout in Florida in 2022 roughly equaled the 2018 level, but Republican Latinos’ turnout was up by 18%, while Democratic Latinos’ turnout dropped by 28%, [noted Tom Bonier, the head of TargetSmart, a Democratic vote-targeting firm].” LAT. Fortunately for the Democratic Party, Florida was significantly different from those purported “swing states” that gave the Dems a margin of victory that stopped the “red wave.”
Trump’s personal hold on the GOP was clearly slipping. As noted in the January 22nd Washington Post, even his effort to recruit local state politicians to endorse him and appear at his scheduled January 28th rally in South Carolina was flailing: “[SC stalwarts] find themselves divided between their support for Trump, their desire for a competitive nomination fight in the state and their allegiance to two South Carolina natives, former governor Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott, who have taken steps to challenge Trump for the nomination. Both are said by people close to them to be seriously considering a bid, and Haley is expected to announce in the coming weeks, South Carolina operatives said.”
The midterm turnout was generally the determinative factor, even in blue New York: “New York, where Democrats lost six congressional districts in areas that President Biden had carried in 2020, was another state where the party had a serious turnout problem while Republican turnout rose. In the Long Island district won by the now-notorious fabulist Rep. George Santos, Republican turnout ran 10% ahead of 2018; Democratic turnout was nearly 10% lower….
“[But elsewhere…] In Nevada, voters younger than 30 made up 13% of the electorate, up from a record-setting 11% in 2018 and more than double the 6% in 2014. Because those young voters lean heavily Democratic, they were crucial to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s 1-percentage-point victory over her Republican opponent.
“In Michigan, the same pattern appeared: Young voters broke their 2018 turnout record and voted at nearly twice the level they had in 2014. Those voters helped generate a blue wave in Michigan, where Democrats won full control of the state government for the first time since President Reagan was in the White House… In both of those states, and in other battlegrounds that have released their voter files, Democratic turnout was up overall, Bonier said.
“All of that is consistent with a theory put forward by Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg: that 2022 played out as two very different elections happening at the same time — one in battleground states, where Democrats did very well; the other in the rest of the country.
“And it fits with analysis by another veteran Democrat, Michael Podhorzer, former political director of the AFL-CIO. He argued in a recent newsletter that the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections showed that the country has an ‘anti-MAGA majority,’ but one that relies heavily on people who vote only when they see something major at stake.” LAT. The Trump radicalized Supreme Court appointments, a joy to the evangelical minority that drives the MAGA base, provided some nasty national chickens that came home to roost. “The issue that most consistently activated those voters in 2022 was abortion rights.
“In states like Michigan, where the election featured a stark choice between Republicans campaigning to ban abortion and Democrats vowing to protect abortion rights, first-time and occasional voters turned out in large numbers and favored the Democrats… By contrast, in heavily blue states like New York and California, where there was no credible threat to abortion rights, many voters stayed home. Republicans capitalized on the low Democratic turnout in those states to pick up enough congressional seats to form their House majority… The same was true in Florida, where voters perceived that there wasn’t a competitive contest for governor.
“That pattern has several implications for 2024 and for the political battles between now and then: It highlights the importance of abortion rights as a mobilizing issue for Democrats, and the peril for Republicans if their House majority actively tries to roll back abortion rights nationally. The GOP’s slender House majority could easily be washed away by larger turnout in the presidential election.
“The outcomes also underscore the danger that a Trump candidacy poses to the GOP. Trump on the ballot in 2024 almost surely would once again mobilize the voters Democrats need. If some other candidate gains the Republican nomination, Democrats will tell voters that the new person too poses a threat to their rights. They can’t assume, however, that voters automatically will accept that — they’ll need convincing.” LAT. Would a GOP DeSantis nomination force the same results? But he’s untainted by Trumpian missteps and would face a very elderly Joe Biden who is struggling with his failures in dealing with classified documents. Stay tuned.
I’m Peter Dekom, but seriously tainted candidates vs those with strong regional support will define the 2024 turnout that may well kill the MAGA movement… or give it a second and unexpected chance to redefine American democracy.
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