Is Brazil a Reflection of the United States to Come?

  Brazil December 2022

Michigan Capitol April 2020

Is Brazil a Reflection of the United States to Come?

Or Just Another Banana Republic?

Cars set on fire, police headquarters attacked, protesters shutting down roads and causing chaos in major cities… Many wearing what you would think are simple Brazilian colors, the green and yellow of the national flag. But just as the word “patriot” has come to be distorted in the United States – preempted by MAGA Trump supporters as a sign of a “stolen election” – those Brazilian national colors are now won by supporters of former Brazilian President, Jair Bolsonaro, for exactly the same reason. While Bolsonaro has not openly incited his followers to use violence to reverse the election, now certified, he has appeared silently at several mass protests. His comments tend to be understated, although he has not yet conceded defeat in the October presidential election.

It not a full-on revolution in Brazil. It is sporadic and occasional. And unlike Donald Trump who continues to goad his MAGA believers into finding a way to retrieve “a stolen election” and immediately put him back in the White House, Bolsonaro is apparently smart enough to support his followers with his relatively passive presence, avoiding specific words to incite and support a violent overthrow of Lula government… so far anyway. But the violence, the support for Bolsonaro’s right-wing nationalism, remains widespread. Just as MAGA continues to exist in support of Trump’s never-ending claims of unprovable election fraud, so too do Bolsonaro followers believe he is the necessary leader to save Brazil.

Brasilia is a strange capital city. It did not even exist until 1960, after the government decided it needed a new, architecturally prominent, national capital city, more centrally located than Rio de Janeiro (the now former capital). It was designed from the ground up and today boasts the highest GDP per capita in the region. But it also the focal point of antigovernment protests, even as other cities have witnessed pro-Bolsonaro election deniers in angry demonstrations.

For example, in mid-December, the violence centered on Brasilia. As reported in the December 14th Associated Press: “Supporters of outgoing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro clashed with police, setting fire to several vehicles and allegedly attempting to invade the federal police’s headquarters in Brasilia, the capital.

“Images of chaos as a small number of protesters roamed the city … circulated on local television channels and social media [December 12th]… Brasilia’s public security secretariat said in a statement that clashes broke out after police carried out an arrest warrant. Earlier Monday, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes had ordered the temporary arrest of Jose Acacio Serere Xavante, who is suspected of participating in anti-democratic protests.

“Since Bolsonaro lost his reelection bid to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Oct. 30, many of his supporters have gathered outside military barracks across the country refusing to concede defeat and asking for the armed forces to intervene. Earlier Monday, the nation’s electoral authority awarded Lula and his vice presidential running mate an official certification, sealing their victory.

“Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly claimed that the nation’s electronic voting system is prone to fraud and has not conceded defeat, told supporters Friday [12/9] that his political future was in their hands… ‘The depredation and attempted invasion of the federal police building in Brasilia is unacceptable,’ said Flavio Dino, incoming justice and public security minister in Lula’s administration.

“The leader of the opposition in the Senate, Randolfe Rodrigues, said some protesters, whom he called ‘terrorists,’ had congregated around the hotel where Lula is staying… Police in full gear were rushed to the federal police headquarters as backup, as officers had to use stun grenades and rubber bullets, local media reported. Police also blocked several avenues and streets across Brasilia… Protesters elsewhere set at least one bus on fire and were seen gathering metal barriers.”

Indeed, this Trump inspired and infused notion of election fraud is still a calling card in other countries, even for losing candidates here in the United States. Hello, failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate, Kari Lake, who is suing to reverse the election results there. The violence in Brazil has not involved a major threat of civilian firearms, even though Bolsonaro loosened his nation’s strict gun laws during his tenure. Still, getting a private firearm in Brazil is not an easy process.

“Despite the changes, not everyone can carry in public. First, there are some threshold requirements. You must be at least 25 years of age, and you must be either a Brazilian citizen or a permanent resident. Assuming you meet those conditions, you can apply for a concealed weapon license from the Federal Police.

“Along with the application, you’ll have to present a handful of supporting documents. These include a clean criminal background report, a letter from a psychologist attesting to your mental health, and a letter from a credentialed professional verifying your gun handling skills… For most, the biggest hurdle is proving necessity. Brazil still prohibits carrying a gun unless you have a legitimate need. To qualify, you’ll have to show that you face some physical threat or that you engage in a high risk professional activity.” BrazilCounsel.com. Getting a firearm in the United States is all but automatic, and in a few states, people are allowed open carry of weapons in protests even on state capitol steps (see above photo). So, do those armed MAGA militia just fade away, or is the United States simply experiencing the calm before the storm? And boy do we have a lot of guns. Do we become Brazil with guns?

I’m Peter Dekom, and democracy is vastly more fragile than most Americans realize.