China Rising… Again

“If the United States does not hit the brake but continues to speed down the wrong path, no amount of guardrails can prevent derailing, and there surely will be conflict and confrontation.” 

Qin Gang, PRC Foreign Minister

“Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented grave challenges to our nation’s development.” 

PRC President Xi Jinping, both as Xi was elected to another term on March 10th.

Until the pandemic, China’s economy was still soaring. During the pandemic, the local severe lockdown strategy slammed the brakes on economic growth, a reality which is finally reversing. But it is equally obvious that President Xi, ensured of the PRC presidency and chairmanship of the Communist Party for as long as he wants it, has recast China priorities across the board. Those mega-captains of industry have been purged or at least re-educated into a secondary role, subservient to Xi focus on consolidating his control and turning the Chinese behemoth into a more traditional, centrally controlled economy where dissidence is simply not tolerated. 

The National People’s Congress voted to add another five-year term to Xi’s presidency: 2,952 to 0… as anyone who even slightly challenged Xi has long since been removed. The military budget was increased, and China’s development of state-of-the-art weapon systems is beginning to put China on more equal footing with the United States, whom China believes is a polarized and unraveling failing democracy. As my recent Taiwan or Bust? blog suggests, China’s forays around the world are cementing her as the “other global power.” Her resurging economy, notwithstanding US sanctions and restrictions, is still slated to be larger than that of the US in under decade. China’s GDP is expected to 5% in the coming year.

Indeed, China’s rising stature internationally seems to be very much at the expense of the United States. As we rail against illiberalism and out-and-out autocracy, China is very much at home with autocrats and autocratic power. As our policies in the Middle East quiver, as our muted criticism of the Saudi monarchy and our blistering attack on Iran’s theocracy continue, China just stepped in. “China’s successful brokering of a detente between [bitter enemies] Iran and Saudi Arabia on Friday [3/10] forced the United States into the awkward position of applauding a major Middle East accord secured by its main geopolitical rival.

“The agreement was the result of talks that began Monday [3/6] as part of an initiative by Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at ‘developing good neighborly relations’ between Tehran and Riyadh, the three countries said in a joint statement. But the signing of the accord in Beijing — which the Biden administration considers its No. 1 geostrategic threat — represents the latest effort by Xi to stake out a larger political presence in the Middle East, where the United States has been the dominant outside power brokering agreements since the end of the Cold War, waging wars and exerting influence in an oil-rich region vital to the world’s energy security.” Washington Post, March 10th. China is feeling her growing power, sliding closer to Russia while appearing to embrace a brokered peace between Russia and Ukraine.

“Xi’s new term and the appointment of loyalists to top posts underscore his near-total monopoly on Chinese political power, eliminating any potential opposition to his hyper-nationalistic agenda of building China into the top political, military and economic rival to the U.S. and the chief authoritarian challenge to the Washington-led democratic world order…

“Xi and his new foreign minister, Qin Gang, have set a highly combative tone for relations with the U.S., amid tensions over trade, technology, Taiwan, human rights and Beijing’s refusal to criticize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” Associated Press, March 11th. The Post. Xi continues to see democracy as simply unable to deal with modern realities.

While both the United States and Taiwan continue to tiptoe against making clear statements that Taiwan should forever be deemed a fully independent state, the fact remains that the United States and the PRC are barely on speaking terms. Mutual saber-rattling and cat-and-mouse military confrontations in Asian waters continue unabated. Without communication, and the escalating bipartisan anti-Chinese vitriol in Congress combined with escalating US sanctions and restrictions aimed at the PRC, it is easy to see how “bad” could easily spin out of control into “terrible.”

We once lived with the Soviet Union for decades, occasionally “almost” coming to blows, but there was a red phone and a willingness for the US and the USSR to speak with each other even at the worst of time. The Cold War. Whatever else is said and done, we need to reopen full lines of communications with Beijing, both to deescalate military tensions directly between our nations and, most importantly, to develop a joint and then global plan to contain climate change. 

I’m Peter Dekom, and while maintaining strong relations with allies is always a priority, what matters more is full and open communications with our enemies.