Water, the Southwest and Post-Hilary Reality

 

It’s not as if the United States is alone in facing an increasingly parched future. Large swaths of Africa and Asia, particularly desert regions, may soon be rendered uninhabitable as sustained high temperatures hit rising record highs. There are parched areas of Europe where crop failure has replaced the once verdant visions of rolling croplands. Cape Town, South Africa, a lovely and once thriving city, staggered to the brink of total water loss… and staved off that horrible reality with a last-minute spate of rainfall.

But even with the flooding associated with tropical storms, questions about water availability continue, from the dramatic reduction of water stored in aquifers and wells across the land, particularly in that heartland between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi, to the desert Southwest. And the price we have to pay for precious s water generated by the increasing intensity of tropical storms is reaching exorbitant. Idalia and Hilary absorbed vastly higher levels of seawater, creating slow and heavy hurricanes/tropical storms for one terrifying reason: the rising temperature of ocean water, well above the 81-degree Fahrenheit line of demarcation for hurricane intensity. 100+ degree water off Mexico in the Pacific and the Gulf off Florida created storms that were labeled as “once-in-a-generation” anomalies… but the record water temperatures threaten to create our new normal.

Insurance rates in communities suffering the greatest damage are soaring to unaffordable, insurance carriers are leaving in droves, where flooding and fires are expected, and mortgage rates and shorter terms reflect the new reality. But didn’t Hilary end the great Southwestern drought? The answer if “yes, but not really.” Huh? Writing for the August 29th Los Angeles Times, Grace Toohey addresses the “yes” part of that answer: “Almost all of California is finally drought-free, after Tropical Storm Hilary’s rare summer drenching added to this winter’s record-setting rainfall totals.

“But despite all that drought-busting precipitation, California continues to capture only a percentage of that water. Much of the abundance in rain from Hilary ended up running off into the ocean — not captured or stored for future use, when California will inevitably face its next drought.

“‘We’re not even coming close to capturing all the runoff,’ said Mark Gold, the director of Water Scarcity Solutions for the Natural Resources Defense Council. He still called Hilary’s rainfall ‘an unexpected boon’ for Southern California’s local water supplies, but said too much of the storm’s water washed away — the latest reminder of the state’s urgent challenge to better capture rainwater to help refill vital groundwater resources.” Even with full or nearly full reservoirs, California mere bought a little time.

And then there is the loss experienced by the regional aqueducts and rivers from evaporation alone – somewhere north of 10%. “States at the end of the river would see their Colorado River portion shrink based on the distance it travels to reach users. The farther south the river travels, the more water is lost as temperatures rise and water is exposed to the elements for longer…. The Southern Nevada Water Authority estimates that roughly 1.5 million acre-feet of water are lost to evaporation, transportation and inefficiencies each year in Arizona, Nevada and California. That’s 50% more than Utah uses in a whole year.” Associated Press, January 30th. The cost of covering those aqueducts is in the billions of dollars, although the coverings could be used to house power-generating solar panels.

At the heart of the Southwest’s water woes is obviously the reality of the Colorado River, which feeds water needs to seven regional states. Not only does a decline in the river’s water table impact water usage, but if that level drops sufficiently, the massive electrical power generating capacity of Hoover Dam could slow if not stop entirely. Sure a few Hilary-related raindrops raised the Colorado less than an inch, which helped stave off an immediate disaster, but governmental studies tell us that we are unlikely to have the benefits of even recent river level for very long. Writing for the August 17th LA Times, Ian James explains:

“But the [federal] analysis highlights warnings from experts who say that even though the Colorado River has benefited from one of the wettest winters in years, the long-term gap between heavy demands and limited supply will require significant reductions in water use… Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest reservoirs in the country, remain at historically low levels. Even with the rise in water levels this year, the reservoirs are just at 36% of capacity.

“‘The problem on the Colorado River does not get erased with one wet year. And in fact, climate change pretty well ensures that this problem continues,’ said Jennifer Pitt, director of the National Audubon Society’s Colorado River program. ‘While there is a temporary reprieve, and while there will always be wet years and dry years, the overall trend is warmer, drier, and less water availability.’” It’s hard to reconcile the flooding all over southern California (picture, above left) with the Colorado River levels that terrify resources planners across the basin. The photograph above right shows what the water at Hoover Dam looked like in 2021… but even after Hilary, that tiny additional waterfall hasn’t changed that view at all.

Construction in the Phoenix, AZ area has been curtailed, even stopped, as a 110-degree month set new records. Hilary did not change that. Some of those regional states were able to see some marginal improvement in their aquifers, but water shortages will define the commercial viability for the entire region for decades to come. A serious reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, even a process for removing such gasses from the atmosphere, accompanied by conservation and smart infrastructure and architectural development are now beyond mandatory.

I’m Peter Dekom, and if avoiding massive costs, sheer misery and major reductions in the qualify of our lives matter, it is time to shove all those climate change deniers or marginalizer out the door… and bolt it shut.