Autocrat 101 – Blame, Distract and Rally

Putin blamed non-existent Nazis in Ukraine and their American NATO puppet master, Xi blames US economic hegemony and hostile acts, and Trump blames the “deep state,” crime (much higher in red states) and hardworking Mexicans and Central Americans escaping the violence fed by US guns in their home countries as “murderers and rapists.” Whatever the blamed group may be, the autocrats or autocrat wannabes are covering failures of their own policies. Today, Putin and Xi have seriously failing economies. Trump just want to justify political power to punish his enemies. And massive shows of force – often military parades – or huge political rallies (lying about attendance if necessary) are meant to give the autocrat the ostensible authority to punish, sidestep local or international laws and make unilateral decisions without any opposition.

The need to blame, distract and rally often leads to wars – the easiest application of that principle – and because nothing like violence makes a strongman seem strong. Since people rally to a threat, strongmen who deploy force distract from their failing policies. They cannot stand to appear weak or be viewed as losers; they can be the most dangerous people on earth. Trump is itching for his “government of retribution,” representing a purge the likes of which the United States has not experienced since the end of the Civil War, but he’s not currently leading the country and so far our constitutional guard rails have held.

Putin has his war, but Xi is saber-rattling at a level that could easily become a war… in Taiwan… His conflict mentality is already a fact beyond, in the lands and waters in the East and South China Seas. Xi has ordered many statistical reports can no longer be published, hiding his 20% unemployment rate among the rising generations, especially college educated, the collapse of major manufacturers and the bankruptcy of major housing/apartment developments. He is desperate for those to blame and to distract. He wants his people to rally to his cause. He is a very dangerous man.

Since Xi has built is expanded military base in the Spratley Islands and escalated his naval and air power over the entire region, he is reinforcing his bogus claims to the land and adjacent sea lanes of several nearby Asian countries. Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. Even the land border between India and China has seen bullets fly. A dangerous failed leader is using the threat of military force to rally his people… what could possibly go wrong?

But while Taiwan gets the most obvious press coverage and the greatest numbers of naval and air intrusions, China is also challenging international navigation in waters where many ships pass … as mariners have for centuries. It’s brinkmanship that could spark a world war. But there is less reporting of this constant clash … all over those East and South China seas. Like this escalating power grab over fishing rights in what have been Filipino waters for centuries. It not just the US… it our allies as well… and even non-aligned nations.

The September 28th Associate Press reported: “Philippine officials condemned the installation last week of a 980-foot-long barrier by Chinese coast guard vessels at the entrance to the lagoon of Scarborough Shoal as a violation of international law and the country’s sovereignty… The barrier has prevented Filipino boats from entering [their traditional] rich fishing area, they said.

“The shoal lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone just west of the main island of Luzon, but has been occupied by China since 2012 as part of a push by Beijing to lay claim to virtually the entire South China Sea… On Monday [9/25], the Philippine coast guard said it has complied with an order by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to launch a covert operation to remove the rope and net barrier held up by small buoys in the mouth of the shoal. China reacted Tuesday [9/27] by asking the Philippines ‘not to make provocations or seek trouble.’

“‘Huangyan Island is China’s inherent territory,’ Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a news briefing in Beijing on Wednesday [9/27], referring to the Chinese name for Scarborough… ‘What the Philippines [has] done is nothing but a farce that entertains itself. China will continue to safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests of Huangyan Island,’ he said.

“Philippine Vice Adm. Alberto Carlos, who heads the military’s Western Command in charge of overseeing the South China Sea, told journalists he was concerned that the Chinese coast guard may also install a similar floating barrier at the entrance to Second Thomas Shoal, which is occupied by a small Philippine navy contingent on a long-grounded warship but has been surrounded by Chinese coast guard ships.”

China has rejected international mediation, most probably because it stands little chance of prevailing. Land claims are based on undersea fingers of land and ancient territorial claims. The claimed waters are part of the mix. It would be a bit like Britain demanding the United States itself as part of its traditional and integral territory. And Russia has more than once maintained that Alaska is their possession, because the Tsar lacked the power to sell the people’s land (remember “Seward’s folly”).

I’m Peter Dekom, and without clear checks and balances, flailing and failing autocrats generally don’t generate good results for their citizens… are often the most dangerous people on earth.