It may not have started with Donald Trump, but he became the spokesman for US withdrawal from international trade agreements (like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which China then reconfigured in its favor) and treaties (like the UN’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, that once contained Iran’s refinement of weapons grade uranium and plutonium, which US withdrawl put Iran back on track developing fissionable material) simply rewarded our traditional foes. His efforts to embrace the dictators in North Korea, Russia and the Peoples’ Republic of China, filled with lots of “only I can do it” braggadocio, failed miserably.
But worse, his MAGA movement fractured the United States into two factions with irreconcilable differences, a polarization that has led autocrats opposing US policies to a “certainty” that the United States would soon unravel into an ungovernable, self-destructive country. In their aggressive minds, all they have to do is wait. Even if Trump were no longer in the Picture, MAGA is now a distinct, faith-driven movement with millions of passionate adherents.
China and Russia have together actually announced a new world order, not surprisingly led by them, to counter American domination of the international financial markets and her deployment of Naval fleets into every corner of the world. This may seem bizarre since China is our number one trading partner ($700 billion/year), but we seem to be able to operate on two levels, even with toxic sanctions going back and forth.
That Vietnam, Iraq (now Iran’s effective satellite) and Afghanistan have gone down in flames against US ambitions, clearly eroded our credibility. And then there’s our long-standing commitment to Israel, our most reliable partner in the Middle east. Israel’s intelligence missteps followed by a brutal and inhuman terrorist attack by Hamas, with lots of war crimes against civilians, provoked a strong and justifiable response from Israel’s military (the IDF), focused on eliminating Hamas once and forever.
The Biden administration rallied forcefully to support Israel, with military supplies and even a UN Security Council veto of a vote for humanitarian cease fire in the conflict. But as Hamas correctly predicted (quite willing to sacrifice its own population in the effort), Israel’s powerful military response quickly turned many nations to flip their sympathies to the Gazan people. Food, fuel and medical supplies were quickly exhausted in Gaza, notwithstanding a trickle of humanitarian aid that passed from Egypt to Gaza in a set of truck convoys. Buildings, including both military and residential targets, were leveled. Some suggested misfired Hamas rockets were partially to blame, but surviving hospitals in Gaza were rapidly taken offline.
Even within the United States, a schism was developing between pro-Israeli retaliation Democrats and Gaza-sympathetic progressive Democrats. And Russia’s Putin, China’s Xi and Iran’s Ayatollah were grinning ear-to-ear. Their vision of that new world order was falling nicely into place. Focusing on the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, Los Angeles Times Columnist Doyle McManus, on October 29th explained the impact of these two realities on the creation of that new world order:
“The onetime Russia advisor to then-President Trump [Fiona Hill ] fears that support for Ukraine is gradually eroding, encouraging Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to wait the West out… ‘Putin feels everything is trending in his favor,’ she warns… But she’s worried about much more than that, beginning with Israel’s war in Gaza, which has made the world more dangerous…
“‘These could be global-system-shifting wars, something like World War I and World War II, which reflected and produced major changes in the international order,’ she said. ‘In a sense, the Hamas attack on Israel was a kind of Pearl Harbor moment. It opened a second front.’.. Most of the world’s major powers have lined up in two opposing coalitions: the United States and its allies on one side; Russia, China and Iran on the other. One of those coalitions is supporting both Ukraine and Israel. The other is not…
“The United States and its European allies have provided billions of dollars in weapons and financial aid to help stop Putin’s drive to reconquer the Russian Empire… But Ukraine’s progress has been maddeningly slow , prompting impatience not only in the U.S., but in Europe as well… ‘We put too much weight on Ukraine’s counteroffensive,’ Hill said. ‘This is going to be a long war. Putin thinks we will give up if he holds on long enough’… The Russian leader is also ‘clearly waiting for 2024’ and the prospect that Trump could return to the White House and cut off aid to Ukraine, she added.
“An early test will come in the next few weeks, when Congress considers Biden’s request for $61 billion in new aid for Ukraine. The last time the House of Representatives faced such a request, 93 Republicans voted against it, including the newly elected speaker, Mike Johnson (R-La.)… Now add the second front in the global conflict: Gaza… ‘This helps Putin,’ Hill said. ‘It’s going to distract the United States and European supporters of Ukraine.’…
“‘China doesn’t want to be stranded alone with no other major power as an ally,’ Hill explained. ‘Xi needs Putin and Putin needs Xi.’… But that creates a problem for the United States, she said: ‘We’re not going to have any hope of curtailing Russia’s options and getting the Middle East to calm down if we have a super-antagonistic relationship with China.’… She thinks the Biden administration should try a ‘Nixon to China’ effort to reduce animosity, referring to President Nixon’s opening of a relationship with Mao Zedong in 1972.”
That nascent effort has already begun with diplomatic exchanges, invitations and conversations between China and the US. Our three major issues with China include their wholesale theft of our intellectual property (most hard patents), the integrity of Taiwan which they intend to annex and their support of Russia in its efforts to restore a Russia with a new boundary of the former Soviet Union, now focused on taking Ukraine. The $700 billion of annual trade has to be a motivator. Non-aligned nations are enjoying playing the US-alliance off against the China/Russia cabal. We can work a détente that benefits both nations, but if Donald Trump is reelected, Russia and China really do not have to do much to advance their vision of the world. They will rise as the United States will fall in the eyes of the rest of the world. If that happens, Americans will pay with a serious downgrade in lifestyle and business advantages.
I’m Peter Dekom, and as much as many Americans believe we do not need to be involved with the rest of the world, I am pretty sure they will truly hate the resulting steep rise in the cost of living from any such American withdrawal.
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