Is Biden losing enough Gen Z voters over arming Israel’s counterstrike on Gaza to push the election to Trump. Polls are all over the map, from 2% of potential Gen Z voters to 20%. Half of that eligible cohort voted in 2020, but just losing even a small share of this group (simply by not voting for Biden even if they do not vote for Trump) could be fatal to Biden’s reelection. Gen Z is notoriously difficult to poll. They don’t answer online survey requests, don’t answer calls from unknown parties and are increasingly alienated from a political system they perceive has betrayed them. This factor is particularly relevant in swing states that will probably determine the election. Biden’s temporarily halting the shipment of larger weapons, approved a long time ago, has not moved the needle in his favor, assuming the needle can be accurately measured.
As even Jewish students are aghast at Israel’s excess, as video evidence of disease and starvation in Gaza are added to the visuals of massive death destruction, Gen Zs are increasing bewildered by a purported democracy, backed by both US political parties, funding what they categorize as “genocide.” In some arenas, Zionism (a pro-Israeli vector) is conflated with the Jewish faith itself, leading to a horrific rise in American antisemitism that should offend and anger all Americans. However, given the overall Gen Z value of tolerance, I suspect that this generation will not carry forward a malign vector of antisemitism. Nevertheless, the future of America’s relationship with Israel, assuming the United States is able to preserve its own democracy, is very much at risk.
As many experts have noted, older Americans view Israel through the prism of a state founded by Jewish refugees seeking a biblical homeland, having survived Hitler’s genocidal Holocaust where 6 million Jews were exterminated. Even those “less old” Americans – Gen X – watched as terrorism and wars from neighboring Arab nations challenged Israel’s very existence. But Gen Y and Z have only witnessed a seeming reversal in roles, where many student activists see Israel as a de facto apartheid colonial state, now itself inflicting “genocide” on innocent Palestinians trapped in Hamas-controlled Gaza. They’ve watched Palestinians facing increased denigration of life and political power, many being displaced even on that “promised land” (the West Bank) that was supposed to be part of a treaty-driven two-state solution recently rejected by Israel.
As Tracy Wilkinson, writing for the May 7th Los Angeles Times observes: “The relationship between the United States and Israel has been a tight embrace almost since the founding of the Jewish-led state 76 years ago… Israel has relied on U.S. money, weapons and global diplomatic defense to thrive. Until recently, the support was unflagging from a bipartisan core of Congress and, generally, from U.S. voters.
“Formed as a refuge for Holocaust survivors, Israel was often portrayed as a victim and an enduring U.S. ally in a tough and dangerous part of the world… But the seven-month war against the militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip is testing that relationship... Reacting to tens of thousands of civilian Palestinian deaths, students are protesting at college campuses across the U.S. While there have been pro-Israel demonstrations as well, the largest and loudest have been in support of Palestinians… The Palestinian cause — the quest by millions for independence and a sovereign state after massive displacement by the creation of Israel in 1948 — was wholly marginalized during the Trump administration and remained on the back burner as President Biden pursued normalization of Israeli ties with its Arab neighbors.
“Then came Oct. 7. Legions of Hamas militants and allies swarmed from Gaza into southern Israel, killing, torching and taking hostages. Around 1,200 Israelis on several kibbutzim and at a music festival were killed; more than 200 were captured and hauled back to Gaza… Israel’s retaliation was brutal and massive. More than 34,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes and land attacks. Most of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million has been forced to flee demolished homes.”
This view of the Israeli counterstrike was already creating generational rifts among Americans even before October 7th. Gen Z, particularly those in college, have been at the forefront of perceived injustice and oppression. Black Lives Matter. #MeToo. Women’s rights. Criminal justice. Israeli treatment of Palestinians was a rising issue that came to a head in the Israeli counter strike in Gaza. Older Americans mostly watched. “Even before Israel invaded Gaza following the Oct. 7 rampage by Hamas, polls showed a significant amount of unfavorable viewpoints on the country among young Americans.
“In a 2022 survey by the Pew Research Center, 56% of adults under age 30 had an unfavorable view of Israel, while 41% had a favorable view… By contrast, the majority of those above age 50 viewed Israel favorably… A Pew poll in February found that among young Democrats, support for Palestinians was overwhelming: 47% favored them, versus 7% for Israel. Support for Israel declined slightly among older Americans, to just under the majority, but it did not translate into support for Palestinians.” Wilkinson. Until this recent change in Gaza, Israel’s PR machine worked exceptionally well. But recent events have overwhelmed Israel’s ability to fine a positive spin.
Have the protests made a permanent attitudinal shift or have the protests backfired among older voters? In swing states like Michigan, with statistically significant Arab American votes, Biden is definitely facing an increasingly uphill battle within his own party. But… “So far, the college demonstrations, while capturing much attention, show no sign of changing U.S. policy toward the Middle East… Asked directly Thursday [5/2] whether he would alter his approach to Israel in response to the campus chaos, President Biden gave a one-word response: ‘No.’.. Attempts in Congress to condition the billions of dollars in U.S. military aid to Israel have gone nowhere.
“Biden has remained staunchly supportive of Israel’s right to self-defense. But he has also tempered his tolerance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government as they consistently rebuff Washington’s efforts to force Israel to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza and allow the entry of food, water, medicine and other humanitarian aid… Netanyahu’s pugnacious presence at the helm of Israel’s government has turned off many U.S. voters, including erstwhile supporters of the country, polls show… Will these passions among younger Americans last?... With college coming to a close for the summer, it is possible the protests will taper off.
“Students evolve into adults with jobs and often become more conservative or mainstream in their politics, as happened with baby boomers… Another major Palestinian terrorist attack in Israel, or violent antisemitic attacks in the U.S., could also restore sympathy for Israel… On the other hand, young people are vowing to take the pro-Palestinian fight to other venues, including the Democratic National Convention, which is scheduled for August in Chicago, and the corporate headquarters of businesses that are seen as complicit in financing Israel’s war effort.” Wilkinson
My personal belief is that the imagery emanating from Gaza – massive death of women and children, ravaged buildings and infrastructure, and rampant disease and starvation – has been so strong that younger Americans will define their overall view of Israel based on these visions. Can Israel restore its once overwhelmingly positive perception by most Americans? While there is nowhere to go but up in this effort, I suspect that this negative view of Israel will linger for a very long time among our rising generations.
I’m Peter Dekom, and as autocrats the world over use or threaten to use massive violence against vulnerable minorities or innocent victims, our rising generations will be increasingly revulsed against anything that smacks of oppression for the rest of their lives.
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