Is Iran Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Is Iran Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Two Weeks, His Own!

“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reading Trump’s statement, June 19th.

“The delusional American president knows that he cannot impose peace on us by imposing war and threatening us.” 

 Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, June 19th.

We know that Iran has ramped up the production of enriched uranium since Donald Trump effectively killed the totally functional containment of Iran’s nuclear program by pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPA – six nation UN treaty limiting Iran back in 2018. Iran increased weapons grade fissionable material, expanded its missile delivery systems, but until Israel’s massive attack on Iran, there was no concrete evidence that nuclear warheads or bombs had been manufactured. We still do not know for sure. Then Donald Trump, without actually being at war with Iran and without any congressional vote, demanded the “unconditional surrender” of Iran. As the only nation on earth with a “massive ordinance penetrating” bomb (the 30,000 lb. GBU-57 A/B), capable of “busting” an underground bunker (200 feet under the surface) and the only bomber capable of delivering that weapon (the B-2) bomber, Israel beckoned Trump to use it.

But who are Trump’s qualified advisors on such strategic issues? He’s already ignoring his clown car impresario, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and stated flatly that he was rejecting advice from Tulsi Gabbard, his uniquely unqualified Director of National Intelligence (who has consistently maintained that Iran does not have any nuclear weapons). Biased operatives, from Fox News hosts to Steve Bannon trooped into the White House with their two cents worth. But as Edith Olmsted, writing for the June 19th New Republic noted, President Trump seems bewildered by what was facing him:

“As tensions continue to build in the Middle East following Israel’s brutal strikes against Iran, the U.S. president took a break from the Situation Room to host an entirely unnecessary flag-raising ceremony on two newly erected flagpoles at the White House. While standing with members of his family, Trump halfheartedly responded to a question from the press, revealing just how little he knows about the situation in Iran… ‘Do you have any intelligence that Iran is targeting”—asked one reporter… ‘I have intelligence,’ Trump said, grinning… He continued speaking inaudibly as the reporter finished her question: ‘that Iran is targeting any U.S. assets?’… ‘We’re doing very well, thank you,’ Trump replied, before dismissing the press.”

It was clear, Trump truly did not know what he was doing… and rumors of his mental decline quickly surfaced… again. See my recent A Weapon of Miss-Direction blog for more details of the gathering storm. For one thing, we’re not even sure that our bunker buster bomb would even work. The targeted facility was 100 feet deeper than the projected range of the GBU-57 and protected by massive steel reinforced concrete. At a minimum, it would require multiple strikes with supreme accuracy.

To complicate an already complicated challenge, there would be no way to be sure that Iran was thoroughly denuclearized without boots on the ground, most probably US forces in addition to Israeli troops. Additionally, the killing of the Ayatollah Khamenei could even make matters worse. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard would immediately appoint his replacement, likely an even greater hard liner than the Ayatollah. Military experts predict the resulting war would consume a decade or more, an ugly reminder of our experience in Iraq.

I’ve already discussed the potential of Iran’s mining the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway to the Suez Canal. And we are witnessing a revitalization of local popular support even for the repressive theocracy given the attack from Israel and it supporter, the United States. We already know that Iran employs some of the world’s most talented hackers, but their cyber-criminal efforts have been fairly modest of late. Would they attack our banking system, our transportation hubs, our hospitals, our power grid and seek emptying careless Web users’ bank accounts? Would sleeper cells emerge with explosives, automatic weapons, imposing “terror” against American targets here and abroad? Would they take down commercial airliners? How would they deploy their inexpensive but lethal drones that Russia is now using against Ukrainian targets?

“In announcing that he would take up to two more weeks to decide whether to strike Iran, Trump opened up diplomatic options with the apparent hope Iran would make concessions after suffering major military losses… Already, a new diplomatic initiative seemed to be underway as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi prepared to travel Friday [6/20] to Geneva for meetings with the European Union’s top diplomat, and with his counterparts from the United Kingdom, France and Germany… But at least publicly, Iran has struck a hard line… Iran’s supreme leader on Wednesday [6/18] rejected U.S. calls for surrender and warned that any military involvement by the Americans would cause ‘irreparable damage to them.’” Associated Press, June 20th. Trump loves those 2-week projections; there have been 11 of them in Trump 2.0 so far… but a confused President needed to say something. And 2-weeks is his go-to phrase.

It's getting close to half a century since the 1979 Islamic revolution that installed the theocracy… and for decades, the US has been predicting the imminent collapse of that repressive regime. But even with occasional massive protests, the regime is still very much in control of Iran. So, if Trump elects to strike those nuclear targets, effectively a declaration of war without the necessary congressional approval, no one should expect a quick solution to the maze of problems that have plagued the United States for decades. And then… so much for “no more US involvement in foreign wars,” especially in the messy Middle East.

I’m Peter Dekom, and given Trump’s wavering mind set, his lack of a coherent set of dependable political advisors and his proclivity to listen to the last person he has spoken with on key decisions, the tariff/trade issues just may be relegated to sideshows, and the tax cut suspended during wartime.