OK Democrats, Now What?!

OK Democrats, Now What?!

One of the perpetual issues for Democrats is the “diversity” (yes, I said “diversity”) of its constituency vs the relative homogeneity of the GOP voter base. Here’s an example: There are few more woke institutions – on everything from human rights, diversity and climate change – than the Roman Catholic Church. It is the primary church for the much-maligned “invading horde” (as White House Senior Advisor Stephen Miller would say) of undocumented workers from Latin America. The last two Popes have underscored support for these workers and for the above basics. Democratic basics. But when it comes to abortion, the Church is as Republican as it gets.

And the “Rainbow” coalition, the “Big Tent” of Democratic values, you have everything from “socialists” and anti-big business stalwarts favoring government regulation, LGBTQ advocates and anti-Zionist coalitions to those focusing on women’s rights, protection for minorities, pro-union/worker rights, tax-the-rich-and-close-the-loopholes voters and true free speech believers. Republicans – on an accelerating course of self-destruction as evidenced by the slash-and-burn of basic medical and nutritional benefits to fund deficit-blasting tax cuts that clearly favor the mega-rich (the obvious results of that Big Beautiful Bill) and the price-busting economic reality of the GOP tariff/trade policy – are basically tiered into two groups: fiscal conservatives and MAGA idealogues/conspiracy theorists.

Reaching two major cohorts is easier than reaching a rainbow of diversity. Fox News and a panoply of supporting social media/podcasts are reasonably consistent in their overall message. The populist right has a clear advantage in its narrowcast of messaging choices. Notwithstanding the lambasting of MSNBC and fairly neutral mainstream media, the Dems are communications laggards, virtual Luddites. But nascent candidates are beginning to wake up. As reported by Elaine Godfrey in The Atlantic (July 24th):

“[Former Chicago Mayor Ari] Emanuel was the most visible in the media this week [penultimate week in July], but he’s not the only would-be candidate we’re hearing from. This morning, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg went on the podcast The Breakfast Club; he also made a surprise cameo on a Barstool Sports podcast last week to present a jokey ‘Lib of the Year’ award to the internet personality Jersey Jerry, who was wearing a MAGA hat. In an elegant Vogue spread, an old-school and somewhat stiff way to communicate one’s political ambitions, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear bragged about having once been on MrBeast’s show. ‘We’ve got to do the YouTube shows,’ he said, telling the reporter that, unlike Harris, he would have gone on The Joe Rogan Experience. Buttigieg and Representative Ro Khanna of California have both appeared on the comedy podcast Flagrant, co-hosted by Andew Schulz. California Governor Gavin Newsom invited the conservative activist Charlie Kirk to be a guest on the first episode of his podcast.”

A decent start as Trump’s cult following is beginning to view their Golden Calf as covering up for the QAnon/MAGA base’s most villainous deep state criminals: pedophiles. Trump believes that either this debacle will blow over or… the “liberal alternative” will remain an anathema to GOP and indie voters. Trump’s approval level among his core constituents is wobbling but still holding. However, there is evidence that Americans are losing faith in the country. They see an economy stacked against them to bolster Trump’s mega-donors… and matters are getting worse. For many younger Americans, particularly in childbirth years, there is increasing doubt that their country is and will remain an autocracy where opposition to the incumbent is severely punished.

The clearest evidence? Americans are choosing to delay (“see what happens”) or opt out of having children. “The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the statistic for the total fertility rate with updated birth data for 2024…In the early 1960s, the U.S. total fertility rate was around 3.5, but plummeted to 1.7 by 1976 after the Baby Boom ended. It gradually rose to 2.1 in 2007 before falling again, aside from a 2014 uptick. The rate in 2023 was 1.621, and inched down in 2024 to 1.599, according to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics.

“Birth rates are generally declining for women in most age groups — and that doesn’t seem likely to change in the near future, said Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina… People are marrying later and also worried about their ability to have the money, health insurance and other resources needed to raise children in a stable environment… ‘Worry is not a good moment to have kids,’ and that’s why birth rates in most age groups are not improving, she said.” Mike Stobbe, writing for the July 25th Associated Press.

How do Dems broaden their reach and move more to the middle? Elaine Godfrey continues: “Most party strategists I’ve spoken with this year believe that Democrats need to appear on more nontraditional and ideologically diverse outlets to reach new voters and make more people—even those who don’t agree with the Democrats on everything—feel welcome inside the party tent. Donald Trump’s successful turns on Rogan’s podcast and on shows hosted by the comedians Theo Von and Schulz contributed to his victory last November.

“Democratic hopefuls everywhere are swearing more and attempting to adopt a little more swagger. In his interview with Weiss, Emanuel, who once sent a dead fish to a political enemy, leaned back in his chair, looking unbothered; Buttigieg chopped it up with the bros on Flagrant for more than two hours. Notably, some female potential candidates aren’t yet in the mix—where’s Gretchen Whitmer these days? [Lanae Erickson, a senior vice president at the center-left think tank Third Way] didn’t know, but she told me that it’s clear that the party’s decline in support from men ‘has really lit a fire under Democratic dudes.’” The numbers bear this out: Trump carried men by roughly 12 points in November, including 57 percent of men under 30.

But men are now the minority in most undergraduate programs, law schools and increasingly under-performers to women in the same classes. Will this continue? Does this impact birthrates? And will we ever get to the place where fighting for individual rights and protecting vulnerable minorities, a battle with serious consequences for the relevant champions, is not considered “woke,” whatever that has come to mean. The 2028 presidential race has begun!

I’m Peter Dekom, and in the olden days, knights’ fighting to protect ordinary people was considered both noble and evidence of physical and moral strength.