The Appeasement Game

 

The Appeasement Game

From Optics to Threats, to Perception of Autocratic Control to Actual Autocracy

Welcome to the rapid transition of the American democracy into a police state where rigging elections through gerrymandering has become a national pastime. While there is a tendency for leaders who truly do not study history to repeat its mistakes, my personal adjustment to that circular view adds a third dimension to account for paradigm shifts not faced by prior generations. The result of that additional variable – which can account for the impact of major climate change, nuclear weapons, crypto, artificial intelligence, etc. – creates a spiral of history. Today’s blog focuses on one oft repeated leadership failure, the fallback to repeating failed policies because the soundbites always appear believable – like if you give rich people tax cuts they will trickle down those savings to create lots of new jobs or if you just give an egotistical tyrant what he wants, he will smile and go away – but litter the path of dire failure under the consistent harsh light of history. Trump has become the “great repeater of historical mistakes.”

The world has struggled numerous times with nations, led by obsessed autocrats, that have collapsed because of unsustainable inflexible decisions. Nations that tamper with statistical reporting – like China, Argentina, Greece, etc. – because autocrats or wannabe autocrats don’t like the numbers, discover the hard way that they cannot repeal global economic rules as their economies plummet into inflation (or worse, stagflation), unemployment and staggering interest rates. Dead messengers replaced by doctrinaire administrators never produce the autocrat’s desired results. Appeasing an autocrat – are you listening House Republicans and the US Supreme Court? – seldom tempers egotistical avariciousness. As universities and major law firms kowtowed to (appeased) Trump’s fabricated “war against antisemitism” to make absurd concessions, they were floored by the next round of massive Trump demands and his expansion to more universities.

Or, as Los Angeles Times columnist, Michael Hiltzik lamented on August 11th: “The rationale for some of Trump’s policies — social and economic — are mysterious. But a greater mystery is why these institutions have given in, sometimes without a whisper of defiance… The capitulation trend has encompassed some American institutions that made their names standing firm against authoritarianism. One is CBS, whose parent, Paramount Global, last month settled a $20-billion Trump lawsuit over the editing of an interview with Kamala Harris at ‘60 Minutes’ by paying $16 million, ostensibly to finance Trump’s presidential library.

“The settlement ‘resembled payment of an extortion-like penalty to the government for the standard editing’ of the Harris interview, Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, senior associate dean for Leadership Studies and a leading professor at the Yale School of Management, wrote in the New Republic with two Yale colleagues… As my colleague Meg James reported , critics blasted the settlement, with one calling it a ‘spineless capitulation’ that would only embolden politicians and others to ‘weaponize lawsuits and bring regulatory pressure to bear to silence and censor independent journalism.’” Naïve spinelessness is appeasement’s best friend.

We have a President, who is admittedly not a deep thinker or reader of anything, believing his negotiating skills have produced instincts that make deals happen, counting on his perception of his personal connection to other world leaders (usually just a wishful figment of his imagination) under his whimsical and often random, shifting policies, frequently based on statements of “facts” that, on examination, prove to be totally fabricated. As Trump bobs and weaves, unable to implement his promise to end the Russo-Ukraine war on “day one,” or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaza, he is played by savvy opponents on the “other side.” Vladimir Putin has not altered his position one whit since the invasion began, and Benjamin Netanyahu no longer cares what Trump wants, because the US just keeps that weapons flow to Israel unabated.

Sanctions have only solidified Putin’s resistance – Russians have long history of enduring sacrifice to the Motherland – but Trump believes that tariff pressure on Russia’s major fossil fuel buyers (like India) will get to him. As a huge Indian sentiment pushed back on Trump, not Putin, shows, that pressure is unlikely to work… while alienating a major ally and trading partner in the process. If Trump were to supply Ukraine with massive new offensive capabilities and begin the process of considering Kyiv for NATO membership (in very close cooperation with all NATO allies), after an initial Russian level violent showmanship and bluster, perhaps peace could actually stand a chance. Putin is very aware that in search of personal glory, Trump is open to appeasing him more.

WWII, British PM Neville Chamberlin (pictured above with Adolph Hitler) made serial territorial concessions to that German tyrant, hoping for peace, until Germany continued its expansionist effort by invading and conquering Poland in 1939. Chamberlin was out, Winston Churchill took over, and WWII began as a total, out-of-control global conflict. Chamberlain, the appeaser, was replaced by exceptionally well-schooled and experienced Churchill, the pragmatist. Spine won!

Trump depends heavily on perception, noting that most of his policy choices are not aimed at the betterment of the nation but instead are focused with making him look good. His obsession with being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize is obviously more important to him than creating pragmatic and sustainable solutions to global issues. His efforts towards increasing the US’ global influence have consistently backfired. Our closest allies are bewildered by his tariff attacks on them. As he gloated about the total “obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program – restarted literally within weeks of the big attack – his statements on the good time for a regime change in Tehran were countered by a huge groundswell of support for the repressive theocracy by every stratum of the Iranian public.

Like most autocrats, Trump is addicted to demonizing his opponents, efforts usually devoid of facts, and embracing using the military, in contravention of the law, to invade blue cities (like Los Angeles and Washington, DC) under clearly false pretexts. A big ($30M) military parade and the visual of federal troops taking over police duties are touted as proof of his commitment to “law and order.” The same President who pardoned insurrectionists who seriously injured and killed federal police officers charged with protecting the US Capitol. The same President who cut $811 billion under his Big Beautiful Bill that would have gone to bolster local police with equipment and manpower upgrades.

Trump’s own cabinet appointments, unqualified apparatchiks – like HHS head RFK, Jr who may just have doomed millions of Americans by imposing his antivaxx conspiracy theory to kill research for the exceptionally successful expansion of mRNA vaccines or DOD chief Pete Hegseth’s open embrace of white Christian nationalism and belief that women should only be allowed to vote as their husbands determine – have increased Trump’s control to an absurd level of destructiveness. Who is he kidding?

I’m Peter Dekom, and perhaps Trump’s new show of force in Washington, DC will finally serve as a distraction from his failure to deflect the Epstein scandal… but that won’t stop him from trying no matter what!