Strange Times, Stranger Secret Metrics

  

Strange Times, Stranger Secret Metrics

We have a rank (major) amateur with a history of severe drinking problems running our Department of “War,” helming attacks on small purported drug boats, apparently not bound for the United States, and helping the United States design our military of the future… featuring one of the hairbrained Trump concepts – huge, heavily armored battleships, loaded to the gills with guns and missiles, a military concept that died in the 1970s. Of course, these will be “Trump Class” vessels. The Chinese just tested that big remote controlled aircraft drone carrier (capable of releasing 100 drones), pictured above, without putting a pilot or crew at risk. Last confirmed test: December 11th.

US small businesses are experiencing the highest number of bankruptcies in decades, the dollar has lost 9.5% of its value since Trump’s second inauguration and we are suffering the worst job reports in decades… all this as medical insurance at every level is poised to soar in cost. Trump like to tout a soaring stock market – but since 90% of stocks are owned by the top 10% income earners, I am not sure if this is a measure of success or failure. Every time Trump threatens to mess with a neutral Federal Reserve, the dollar takes another nosedive, and the interest rate we have to pay deficit bond buyers goes up. Just about everything tends to be severely impacted by an individual consumer’s political leanings, and nothing shows that better than sales traffic (in stores and online) in big box bargain retail. Target has long been the retail darling of “more upscale than Walmart,” competing heavily with the rapidly expanding Costco.

But once DEI policies became the focal point of “woke” politics, there was a hard impact on the relevant skew of retail dollars, as the March 3rd piece by Pamela N. Danziger, in Forbes, pointed out: “Ever since Target announced at the end of January that it had concluded its three-year diversity, equity and inclusion goals, calls for boycotts against Target have been growing, most recently with Black faith and civil rights leaders advocating for a 40-day ‘Target Fast’ over Lent starting this Ash Wednesday. About the same time as Target was dialing back DEI, Costco affirmed its strong DEI commitment after striking down a proxy vote to evaluate its current policy’s risks in light of rising anti-DEI political and legal pressure. While website traffic can rise and fall sharply on any given day for any number of reasons, it would appear that Target is beginning to experience pullback from its most loyal app-user customer base.” It seems that Costco touted business surveys while Target focused on social justification.

The analysis continued in the April 11th FastCompany.com, as Rob Walker added: “Costco reaffirmed its own DEI commitments as simply good for business and while that sparked some boycott chatter in the anti-‘woke’ mob, it didn’t amount to much. Simultaneously, the big-box club chain has put a fresh emphasis on putting higher-end in its bargain mix, including literal gold bars.

“Target’s initial announcement that it was paring back DEI initiatives sparked immediate complaints and boycott vows—and a notable chunk of those disaffected consumers seem to be sticking to their guns. In a recent report on DEI cuts’ impact on retail, analytics firm Numerator estimated that Target drew almost 5 million fewer store visits in a four-week stretch ending in February compared to the year before. Costco, in contrast, enjoyed 7.7 million more visits in the same stretch. The report pointed out that “DEI-sensitive groups” were a notable contributor to the trend. Latino shoppers, for example, made up about a third of Costco’s gains. Placer.ai data found that Target overall foot traffic dropped 9% in February and 6.5% in March; and it appears to be continuing to fall.”

And then there’s this sneaky metric that makes sense when you think about it: the pizza economic measure. As Micheline Maynard writing for the May 13th Food & Wine, tells it: “Five years ago, when COVID-19 restrictions shuttered indoor dining, many consumers turned to home cooking — though not necessarily from scratch. Instead, they leaned heavily on a familiar standby: frozen pizza.

“Sales of frozen pizza jumped by $1 billion in 2020, climbing from $5.6 billion in 2019 to nearly $6.6 billion. Even after restaurants reopened, demand remained strong. By 2024, U.S. frozen pizza sales reached nearly $7 billion, contributing to a global market worth $18.5 billion.

“Now, as economic uncertainty grows amid rising tariffs and recession fears, analysts predict frozen pizza could become an even bigger player at mealtime. Greenwich Capital Group projects the category will grow by 6.6% over the next few years… ‘During periods of economic uncertainty, it’s common for consumers to shift from takeout to frozen pizza as a cost-saving measure,’ says R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai, which monitors retail trends.” As some have pointed out, if you have lots of frozen pizza in your freezer, you are either in or expecting a recession.

As the Trump administration, often Trump personally, asserts his pressure on corporate America – from granting tariff and environmental exemptions to companies whose CEOs make the right “donations” to easier approvals for mergers and acquisitions to access to lucrative government contracts – deals (business successes in general) are determined by political whim but not consumer preferences or market competition. Take a deep dive into the battle over the acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery if you want to see this at work. Or exactly how the Trump administration looks at broadcast licenses of media companies that tend to criticize The Donald.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I would be remiss if I did not wish you pizza on Earth and good toppings to men… and women… and children.