Iran – 1, West – 0

Iran’s economy has been in shambles long before the meltdown following September 15 and the demise of oil prices. Massive and stagnant unemployment – they even import 40% of their refined petroleum products – near economic collapse have been the hallmarks of this nuclear menace for quite some time now. And what do leaders do when their people are suffering? What seems to be a pattern, particularly in the Middle East, throughout the ages: you find a target outside of your country to blame or attack to justify the sacrifice, pretend that your constituency’s suffering is not in vain, and try to make your cause rise above the clutter of failure.

I’ve blogged about Israel’s secret allies, Arab leaders in nations where radicalism threatens to undermine the incumbents’ power, even to the point of toppling entire regimes. This would include nations like Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, where dictators and monarchs fear their future as Muslim radicalism threatens to terminate their rule. Israel’s tackling Hamas – a Sunni radical movement with ties to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood – and Hezbollah – a Shiite radical group that pretty much serves as Iran’s proxy in southern Lebanon – fights these Arab leaders’ own radical enemies – the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

This has encouraged Shiite Iran to do what terrifies the autocratic leaders who run large portions of the majority Sunni world – provide military and financial support to Iran’s former arch enemies – Sunnis – in the form of aiding Hamas in its attacks on Israel from Gaza. Iran has preyed on the grassroots sympathy that is growing in all sectors of the Muslim world. With growing unanimity, the “cause” of the Muslim civilians in Gaza, decimated by Israeli counter-attacks, is gathering a huge political anger in the local Arab citizenry, bolstered by footage and photographs of dead children, destroyed Mosques, hospitals and schools (even a United Nations facility) and rolling Israeli tanks, place and troops. The shameful fact that Hamas hides behind civilian targets to launch their rockets into Israel is regrettably lost in translation.

Iran has managed to foment a wedge between local average Arabs and their leaders in major regional powers, particularly in Egypt. The January 10^th New York Times: “Nowhere in the Arab world is the gap between the street and the government so wide as here in Egypt, which has a peace treaty with Israel and has refused to allow free passage of goods and people through its border with Gaza, a decision that has been attacked by Islamic and Arab leaders and proved deeply troubling to many Egyptians… The mood on the streets of Cairo feels somber, dark, dejected. There is a heavy security presence. Armed riot police officers are massed outside of professional organizations, like the Doctor’s Syndicate, that are often run by members aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, the officially outlawed but tolerated Islamic movement. Massive troop carriers clog small side streets.”

The issues for local leaders is painfully obvious (same Times article): “ ‘The pressure is mounting on Egypt,’ said Abdel Raouf el-Reedy, a former Egyptian ambassador to the United States. ‘How come you keep the Israeli ambassador here? How come you keep the Egyptian ambassador in Israel? How come you still export gas to Israel in spite of a court order to stop? The system is on the defensive. Public opinion is more clearly on the side of Hamas.’ ” Hamas has drawn grassroots sympathy, and Iran seems to have been elevated as the political powerhouse in the Middle East, particularly among the Muslim masses. Could this Israeli effort, while militarily successful, have turned Hamas terrorists into “freedom fighters” in the eyes of an even greater number of people? Has this Israeli attack made recruiting Muslim radicals that much easier?

The January 11^th New York Times addressed this growing Iranian power, particularly how Israel and the U.S. have struggled to deal with Iran’s growing nuclear capability: “The White House denied [an Israeli] request [to sanction a military attack on Iran’s nuclear production facilities] outright, American officials said, and the Israelis backed off their plans, at least temporarily. But the tense exchanges also prompted the White House to step up intelligence-sharing with Israel and brief Israeli officials on new American efforts to subtly sabotage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, a major covert program that Mr. Bush is about to hand off to President-elect Barack Obama.”

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama face their own nation’s economic chaos as their most immediate threat, but if someone doesn’t take steps to diffuse the anger in this region – heavily exploited by Iran to grow its own power base – pretty quickly after the inevitable cessation of hostilities, we are going to be faced with the added cost of another Afghan-like war in the not-too-distant future, a drain that this country simply cannot afford. The poverty and hopelessness in an angry Arab world is much more than something we can deal with in the future. The future safety of both Israel and the United States depend very much on how the aftermath of this fury is handled. The Obama administration’s willingness to engage both Hamas and Iran in dialog is a decent place to start… but the path is long, winding and tortuous.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I approve this message.