New Clear Weapons

Pakistan has somewhere between 60 and 100 nuclear weapons. And Pakistan is slowly crumbling under a Sunni fundamentalist militant onslaught – primarily the Taliban – whose press by force seems to be eroding the “legitimate” elected government. Flanked by hostile forces, the Western Tribal District on one side (bordering Afghanistan ) and the province of Swat in the north, Islamabad controls neither of these two regions. Gun-toting Islamists roam the streets of the Tribal District, where Pakistan forces are treated like hostile invaders. Americans have routinely delivered missile-carrying drones and elite forces into this area. What’s worse, Pakistan itself (in a brokered “peace agreement”) has accorded Taliban the right to impose Islamic law – Sharia – in Swat. And boy have they… in Swat and beyond (notably Buner, just 60 miles from the nation’s capital, Islamabad ).

As Taliban recruit masses of peasants by seizing their “landlord’s” estates and distributing these feudal holdings among the peasants, these well-armed Islamists have marched with force towards the capital city, thrown back only when the Pakistani military finally woke up. Pakistani forces are now relatiating in Dir, Buner and even Swat to clear militants from these regions. But what is the prognosis for this troubled nation? Is it too late? It is almost impossible to see how a democratic government can survive in this mix.

First, a very large number of Pakistani children have been educated in madrasa – religious schools that teach not only literacy but religious extremism, hate for the Western world and the elected government in Islamabad . Second, because so many soldiers have recruited from lower classes, the military is often sympathetic to poor peasants and underclass fundamentalists. This sympathy has extended well into the Pakistani Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, the equivalent of our CIA/FBI. More than one Congress man or woman has commented on their fear that sensitive military information imparted by the U.S. to the Pakistani military has been compromised to the militants that we are trying to contain.

Third, as I have pointed out in past blogs, feudalism lives on as a Pakistani reality – powerful families still control most of the landholdings, large industries and even the highest elected offices. Struggling peasants have little to lose in supporting Taliban who are bribing them (in Swat and Buner) with land, even as such peasants may resist the harsh and Spartan ways of the fundamentalists. Fourth, Pakistan has long been the source of the dissemination of nuclear design information that has launched both Iran ’s and North Korea ’s nuclear weapons programs. The infamous Dr. A.Q. Khan, once slapped on the wrist for his activities with house arrest, is now completely free in his native Pakistan .

With vast tracks of Pakistan actually in the control of armed Islamists who not only harbor those we call “terrorists,” but they proudly recruit and join that cause in hordes – the “legitimate” government is literally under siege. Pakistan is very much a part of the greater Taliban strategy, which significantly much impacts the battle the Americans face across the border in Afghanistan . The May 4^th NY Times: “One Pakistani logistics tactician for the Taliban, a 28-year-old from the country’s tribal areas… described a Taliban strategy that relied on free movement over the border and in and around Pakistan, ready recruitment of Pakistani men and sustained cooperation of sympathetic Afghan villagers.”

As militancy increases, the Obama administration is making overtures to an opposition Pakistani leader, Nawaz Sharif, with ties to the Taliban, presumably to begin “back-door-channeling.” Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari visits Washington in the coming days (along with senior representatives from Afghanistan ), and the status of Pakistan ’s nuclear weapons will undoubtedly be high on the list of the topics discussed. Where are the nukes… really? Despite numerous assurances that everything is under control from both the U.S. and Pakistani governments, one would have to be profoundly naïve to believe that those weapons are truly secure.

We’re even begging those governments with sway over the fundamentalist Sunni Taliban to help; U.S. Defense Secretary, Robert Gates flew to Saudi Arabia on May 5^th to communicate America ’s deep concern over the Taliban onslaught. “The defense secretary called on Pakistan ’s allies across the region to assist in countering insurgent successes that represent a growing danger to Pakistan , and Mr. Gates said a goal of this week’s meetings with Afghan and Pakistani leaders in Washington would be to reach consensus on the nature of the threat.” NY Times, May 5^th.

One nuke slipping out of the mix from a sympathetic commander and loyal troops is a very bad scenario; having a regime change to a fundamentalist Taliban government with dozens of nukes and the religious fervor to use them is cataclysmic. There is no way that these risks are easily managed, and our foreign policy has, for years, relied solely on the Pakistan military to guard the nukes. The May 3^rd New York Times: “ ‘I’m confident that we can make sure that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is secure,’ Mr. Obama said [on April 29^th], ‘primarily, initially, because the Pakistani Army, I think, recognizes the hazards of those weapons falling into the wrong hands.’ He added: ‘We’ve got strong military-to-military consultation and cooperation.’ ”

“But that cooperation, according to officials who would not speak for attribution because of the sensitivity surrounding the exchanges between Washington and Islamabad , has been sharply limited when the subject has turned to the vulnerabilities in the Pakistani nuclear infrastructure. The Obama administration inherited from President Bush a multiyear, $100 million secret American program to help Pakistan build stronger physical protections around some of those facilities, and to train Pakistanis in nuclear security… But much of that effort has now petered out, and American officials have never been permitted to see how much of the money was spent, the facilities where the weapons are kept or even a tally of how many Pakistan has produced.”

A battered economy isn’t the only major issue Americans face. While this is probably the “hottest” region on earth for high risk nuclear vulnerability, we also watch as A. Q. Khan’s atomic children, North Korea and Iran , rattle their sabers. And just picture what so many countries around the world who would be threatened by this proliferation of nukes must be thinking about their own “defensive/deterrent” needs for these weapons.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I worry a lot.