What if Iraq Unravels?

We have all assumed that the United States can leave Iraq, one sector at a time, and that the regional warring factions – simply put: the majority Shiites who hold the bulk of the territory including the outlet to the sea, the Sunnis in the southwest who typically hate Shiites and the Kurds in the north who are held together by ethnicity more than by faith – will lay down their arms and settle into a new direction of nation-building and stability. We have even assumed that Iraq , now with a constitution and a freely elected government, is actually a country that can stand. And we have based our national policy on getting our troops out of Iraq and either bringing them home or refocusing our efforts on Afghanistan . What if we completely and totally wrong?

The harsh reality is that the factions within Iran hardly trust each other. The Kurds want the return of the Kirkuk oil fields taken away from them for being disloyal to Saddam Hussein in the 1993 Gulf War. The Shiites, who control most of the proven oil fields, have no desire to return those productive fields to the Kurds. The Sunnis, a religious minority in Iraq who crushed the Shiites during Hussein’s rule (he was a Sunni), have traditionally despised the mystical Shiites as Islamic heretics. Sunnis fear living in a country where Shiites have the bulk of political power (with Shiite militia – death squads – having gone out of their way to kill Sunnis and push them out of Baghdad neighborhoods). They are not ready to live in peace and harmony with their sworn enemies. Or are they?

Still, with all that is going on in the world, with economic reality forcing American acceptance that it has to cut its military presence sooner or later, whether or not Iraq is ready… even assuming “Iraq” would ever be ready… we have to exit eventually. It was the President’s election promise, even as some of our military leaders called the local army and police force biased and inadequate, suggesting that it might take a decade or more of American forces remaining to stabilize the country.

The original borders were drawn up in the World War I era based on political negotiations among Western powers with absolutely no concern about whether such boundaries made any sense at all to the locals. Are we prepared for resumption of the civil war? What if blood runs in the streets, reports of genocide abound and oil fields are set ablaze as they once were? Do we keep a force in the region? Let happen whatever is supposed to happen? Iraq is “old news”; we have the economy, the Iranian election chaos, the war in Afghanistan and so many other “more newsworthy” events in our sights. But Iraq did not just go away. And there are signs that our expectations for this battered nation may well not be met.

Sunni Falluja was a town that was supposed to be America ’s success story. But with days until U.S. withdrawal from Falluja, all is not well. The June 23^rd New York Times: “After all, by last year the city, a former insurgent stronghold, was considered one of the safest places in the country. Local Sunni sheiks had driven out the insurgent group Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and held successful elections, and American engineers were hard at work on a showcase reconstruction project: a $100 million wastewater treatment plant meant to be a model for civilian advances in Iraq.

“Then a series of troubling attacks began cropping up this year. One in particular, at the end of May, seemed to drive home the possibility that things were changing for the worse. On a heavily patrolled military road between a Marine camp and the wastewater plant, a huge buried bomb tore through an armored American convoy, killing three prominent reconstruction officials and striking directly at hopes that the way was completely clear for peacetime projects.”

We’ve seen a series of suicide bombings and sniper attacks in various parts of Iraq of late. All is not quiet in Iraq , but our timetable for departure seems to be on course, come hell or high water… unless… maybe… At some level, there will be some violence. Whether the factions can accept that constant fighting actually saps each participant has yet to be determined. The big “supplier of Shiite militias” – Iran – is somewhat distracted with the nascent stages of their own possible civil war. Iraq may be back in the news in the not-too-distant future, and the reports… well… they may present a “future” we did not want, may be blamed for but sooner or later have to accept.

I’m Peter Dekom, and I approve this message.