During the Cold War, that tense stand-off between the Soviet Union and the United States that ended with the fall of communism almost two decades ago, produced a cat-and-mouse display of brinksmanship. We’d track their boats and planes; they’d track ours. We sent spy planes over their lands; they’d send “fishing trawlers” with sophisticated radar and tracking systems our way. But the most fun were there stealthy submarines that patrolled deep under water, the gigantic floating missile platforms, the Ohio Class for the US and the mega-huge Typhoon Class for the Soviets. Fast attack “anti-missile” subs also patrolled the waters off the coast of each nation, and more than one Hollywood epic flowed out of that scenario (“The Hunt for Red October” being one of the more famous efforts).
The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis was the epitome of brinksmanship; the Soviets deployed land-based intercontinental ballistic missile in Cuba, clearly aimed at the United States. President Jack Kennedy almost took the U.S. to war over that one, but the Russians backed down. The “red phone” – a direct hotline from the White House to the Kremlin – was installed to foster communication and take down the threat of a nuclear holocaust. It’s still there.
Most of the U.S. population missed that one, and there are more than a few who never lived through (or were too young to experience) the fear and tension of the Cold War. For those old enough to remember “bomb shelters” and “nuclear attack drills” in school, perhaps the memories still linger. But Russian subs have not patrolled near the U.S. border for about a decade and a half, and most of us don’t even think about a re-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Russia. After all, President’s Obama and Russian President Medvedev are buddies and talk all the time.
Yet in recent times, there have been some pretty sore spots in U.S./Russian relations. Russian strongman, Vladimir Putin (“Prime Minister”), is concerned, almost obsessed with Russia’s re-emergence as a powerful superpower and with a concomitant reduction in America’s perceived power. The military conflict between Russia and Georgia, the potential of a U.S. missile installation in Eastern Europe (even if it’s target was ostensibly in the Middle East), the use of the dollar as the denomination for oil transactions, protests over NATO, Russia’s withdrawal from the World Trade Organization talks, etc. are all signs of this growing need of Russia to be recognized, and as oil price reestablish Russia’s economic power, we are seeing signs that she wants to be recognized across the board. That she has had some spectacular military failures – like the botched launch of the Bulava missile from a Soviet sub in the Arctic in June – only seems to accelerate her quest for recognition.
Which brings up a change in “the way Russia acts” that can drive political “readers of tea leaves” bonkers. For the first time in a decade and a half, Russian Akula Class subs (the smaller, fast attack kind – not the big nuclear missile platforms of the Typhoon Class) – two of them – are back off our coast. The August 5th New York Times: “According to Defense Department officials, one of the Russian submarines remained in international waters on Tuesday about 200 miles off the coast of the United States. The location of the second remained unclear. One senior official said the second submarine traveled south in recent days toward Cuba, while another senior official with access to reports on the surveillance mission said it had sailed away in a northerly direction.”
With the American deficit rising and the U.S. economy anything but strong, American prestige is also suffering as well. We are vulnerable. As the price of oil goes up, given her vast resources and petroleum reserves, Russia gains in economic power. Putin, whether through ego or some more sinister plot, appears willing to recreate that kind of brinksmanship we may have thought long gone. Time to keep our eyes open.
I’m Peter Dekom, and I approve this message.
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