The absolute worst policies for any militant group to follow are those which are either specifically directed at innocent people or those military campaigns with excessive “collateral damage.” Most people simply want to live their lives with as little dangerous jeopardy as possible; they simply want to be left alone to participate in normal family life, have secure homes, sufficient food and medical care where possible (or at least not need more because of war-inflicted trauma) and be able to work and farm without fear.
While militant and explosive anger can hold the attention and dedication of a population for a short time – particularly in reaction to a perceived injustice – as time passes, constant instability and daily risks to life and limb wear thin in the minds of almost every society that has ever grappled with these issues. The image of civilian slaughter and destruction – even the sons and daughters of your enemy – can actually become repulsive. Even Americans, gung ho to react in Vietnam or Iraq, grew weary of the conflicts that didn’t remotely turn out to be “as promised.”
What may have once been a compelling recruiting tool in times of perceived threat may become an old, worn-out message after years of killing, maiming and annihilation “for a cause” – particularly when the results either never materialize or simply result in the imposition of a different corrupt or power-hungry regime. We’ve seen these patterns of eroding popular support for Soviet apparatchiks or terrorist leaders in Northern Ireland.
And now, we are seeing an erosion of the staying power of religious militants who impose “foreign fighters” in local conflicts, who lord it over the regional incumbents, and who draw sharp, targeted military counter-attacks whenever they appear on the scene. Al Qaeda is seeing just such a decline in their popularity.
The September 26th NY Times: “Many students of terrorism believe that in important ways, Al Qaeda and its ideology of global jihad are in a pronounced decline — with its central leadership thrown off balance as operatives are increasingly picked off by missiles and manhunts and, more important, with its tactics discredited in public opinion across the Muslim world… ‘Al Qaeda is losing its moral argument about the killing of innocent civilians,’ said Emile A. Nakhleh, who headed the Central Intelligence Agency’s strategic analysis program on political Islam until 2006. ‘They’re finding it harder to recruit. They’re finding it harder to raise money.’” Awe and respect have given way to disillusionment and resentment. But don’t smile too soon; there are new military terrorist groups forming in the wings.
Which is why American-led counter-insurgency movements, particularly in the Afghan conflict, must be exceptionally wary of becoming viewed as the “foreign invaders” – as the Soviets were perceived in their Afghan conflict that ended in 1989 – with little or no concern for the innocents who perish in seemingly every conflict? To many Americans, “they all look alike.” Bearded men with weird caps… they’re all the same. If that were indeed the case, we’d have a good argument for total nuclear destruction, but most of these people just want to live their lives and be left alone.
We live far from the conflict; 9/11 was the last real attack by foreign militants on U.S. soil. We cannot be attacked and be expected to sit idly by… but the world looks at our actions, failures, “collateral damage,” our arrogant “contractors,” accusations of torture and judges us accordingly. I know who we are… for the most part, pretty damned good people who respect individuals’ rights and believe in life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness… and sometimes we have to fight. Let’s just remember that Golden Rule… and act accordingly.
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