By 2016, U.S. government-mandated fleet averages will reach 35.5 miles per gallon of gasoline (note this word: “gasoline”), a 40% improvement over current averages. Starting in 2012, carmakers have to raise their fleet averages by 5% per year. The October 10th NPR.org: “Although the new requirements would add an estimated $434 per vehicle in the 2012 model year and $926 per vehicle by 2016, drivers could save as much as $3,000 over the life of a vehicle through better gas mileage, according to a government statement. The new standards also will conserve about 1.8 billion barrels of oil and cut carbon dioxide emissions by nearly a billion tons over the life of the regulated models.”
Already, you’re seeing technologies that address these requirements, from better engines, fewer cylinders, lesser displacement, turning off excess cylinder capacity at low power intervals, 5, 6, 7, and 8 speed transmissions that do not overpower engine demands but still deliver performance and of course a litany of electric, hybrid and alternatively-fueled vehicles. Environmentalists are pushing the government to impose 60 mpg and even 65 mpg efficiency by 2025. The measurements are on gasoline; cars that can run on a mixture of gasoline and “other” are measured only as to their gasoline requirements (even if they don’t really use “other”).
But anyone who has ever been stalled in highway and freeway snarls can tell you how they sit and watch all those vehicles burning fossil fuels by the second to go absolutely nowhere. Even jet aircraft lined up to take off are sucking down petroleum products for absolutely no value in return. Vehicle usage is hard on the environment, no matter what the fuel source might be, hard on the infrastructure, and as the population of cars on planet earth multiplies at the current rate ( China is currently a bigger automotive market than the car-crazy U.S. ), hard on the psyche from intolerable traffic jams. I’m still having trouble being that China really had trucks stuck for ten days in immovable traffic, but the visual is compelling even if this is just a popular myth.
While this is unlikely to happen anytime soon, and knowing that individual drivers will scream like stuck pigs, at some time in the future, the greatest cause of traffic jams and fuel inefficiency – human drivers – will be forced to give up control of their vehicles to a computer mastermind. It may start in the bastardized “HOV” (high occupancy vehicle) dedicated lane format – where cars equipped with the automation will be accorded special privileges that whisk them pass others moving very slowly. We once thought that highways would have embedded control strips under the pavement, but technology will probably skip that expensive alternative. The thought of a computer – with all the concomitant “security” and malfunction fears – controlling your car is not without obvious trepidation, but I suspect an over-populated planet will eventually have to make this concession. Will there even be a “manual override”?
For a few shocked Californians driving down twisting Highway 1 or even in city traffic, they may have spied a strange Toyota Prius with a strange contraption on the roof… driving without… er… a driver… there is a person sitting in the driver’s seat, but they’re not actually driving the car. Experimenting with “teach itself” artificial intelligence software, Google is playing with computer control systems for cars of the future: “With someone behind the wheel to take control if something goes awry and a technician in the passenger seat to monitor the navigation system, seven test cars have driven 1,000 miles without human intervention and more than 140,000 miles with only occasional human control. One even drove itself down Lombard Street in San Francisco , one of the steepest and curviest streets in the nation. The only accident, engineers said, was when one Google car was rear-ended while stopped at a traffic light.” New York Times, October 10th. Programmed with highway speeds, traffic and GPS information, these robotic cars simply drove their pre-selected route effortlessly and safely. Add one or two “coordinate with the massive traffic flow” program elements, and the future becomes very clear.
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