Winners and Losers – Shiite Style

What do Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya have in common? Yeah, but that answer is way, way too easy and not nearly as important as the fact that they are all Sunni-majority countries, much like Afghanistan, Jordan and Saudi Arabia… and their political strongmen, in each of these “remaining” countries, are terrified at the prospect of populist uprisings. The fact that these latter countries (including Egypt) were key in containing Hamas and Hezbollah – key enemies of Israel and highly opposed to American policies in the region – is profoundly important in global power politics. In this section of the Islamic world, the Sunni super-powers are either “in transition” or fearful about the potential of being forced to be “in transition.”

These reports were filed on February 23^rd by The Guardian (U.K.) as regional leaders attempt to console… er… bribe… populist movements who were and are organizing local protests:

King Abdullah, the Saudi ruler[pictured above], has returned home after a three-month medical absence and unveiled benefits for Saudis worth $37bn … in an apparent attempt to insulate the world's leading oil exporter from a wave of Arab uprisings….State media announced an action plan to help lower- and middle-income people among the 18m Saudi nationals. It includes pay rises to offset inflation, unemployment benefits and affordable family housing.

Bahrain's King Hamad bin isa al-Khalifa flew to Saudi Arabia to hold talks with King Abdullah after his return to Riyadh… King Hamad freed about 250 political prisoners and has offered dialogue with protesters, mostly from Bahrain's Shia majority, who demand more say in the Sunni-ruled island.

Jordan's cabinet has approved laws making it easier to organise protests and will revive a government body that works to ensure basic commodities remain affordable to the poor… A government official said the reforms were passed late on Tuesday, hours after the country's largest opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, vowed to resume demonstrations pushing for reforms.

When you come to think of it, most of the Middle East, in fact most of Islam, is Sunni (the branch of Islam that demands reading the Qur’an as it is written), 85% to be precise. That other 15% remaining are Shiites (the branch that believes only supreme prelates can interpret the mystical Qur’an)… but oh-so-powerful-and-growing-so-much-more-powerful 15% minority represented by Iran (an Islamic Republic… make that a Shiite Islamic Republic) and Iraq, once ruled by a Sunni dictator (Saddam Hussein) and now very much within the Iranian sphere of influence. Iran has had its own struggles with populist movements, but their pervasive Revolutionary Guards and religious police have managed an unparalleled and so-far effective repression of those efforts… the central government appears very much in control. And for that very reason, Iran – the country that funds Hezbollah and foments Hamas – seems to be rising as THE power in the Middle East.

The February 23^rd New York Times explains what appears to be a massive power shift in the region: “‘I think the Saudis are worried that they’re encircled — Iraq, Syria, Lebanon; Yemen is unstable; Bahrain is very uncertain,’ said Alireza Nader, an expert in international affairs with the RAND Corporation. ‘They worry that the region is ripe for Iranian exploitation. Iran has shown that it is very capable of taking advantage of regional instability.’… ‘Iran is the big winner here,’ said a regional adviser to the United States government who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters… Iran’s circumstances could change, experts cautioned, if it overplayed its hand or if popular Arab movements came to resent Iranian interference in the region. And it is by no means assured that pro-Iranian groups would dominate politics in Egypt, Tunisia or elsewhere.”

We are beginning to witness former regional (Sunni) powers beginning to give Iran wide berth, taking extra steps to protect Shiites (a/k/a Shia) within their borders. And if you want the clearest evidence of this new treatment, you only have to watch as two Iranian Naval vessels just have done something that no Islamic Republic Naval vessel has ever done: they have sailed through Egypt’s Suez Canal, right by Israel, to travel north to assemble with Syrian forces for joint naval exercises. Careful not to jeopardize the delicate balance between Western interests and Iranian expansionist and anti-Israeli goals, Hosni Mubarak would never have allowed such an event. And while the Egyptian military still wants the big military aid paycheck from the United States, it also cannot ignore the obvious power in Iran and that latter’s clear willingness to suborn conflict and populist dissent in other nations. The big loser: anyone who even remotely assisted the United States as it supported its ally, Israel.

I’m Peter Dekom, and while democracy is clearly the best system of government yet devised, the resulting governments don’t always become America’s best friends.