The Other Ticking Time-Bomb

And it never seems to go away – the struggle between Israelis trying to control the immediate threats to their safety vs. the Palestinians seeking autonomy and control over their “homeland.” If Israel’s experience with Hamas-controlled Gaza is any index, having the West Bank move to Palestinian autonomy – even forgetting about what to do about Jerusalem and the West Bank Jewish settlements – is terrifying. Hamas-controlled Gaza has lobbed missile attacks, fomented incursions and otherwise mounted a series of eroding attacks on Israeli land. Tensions have exploded on more than one occasion. The thought of enemies having more land, deeper into Israel is making the tiny Jewish state very, very nervous. And folks in Iran are smiling like Cheshire cats, even though it is mostly Sunnis doing the damage.

What has been going on, and what is likely to come to a head this September, is the mounting and continuous lobbying effort by the Palestinian Authority with United Nations’ member states to vote to recognize Palestine as a separate and autonomous country. Even if there were a two-state solution sanctioned by Israel, the Jewish state would ideally like to retain some control over some of that land, notably all or part of Jerusalem (but it is a holy city to Muslims too and was part of Palestine before it was captured in the Six Day War back in 1967). If the UN votes to accept autonomy before Israel can fix a peaceful solution, then Israel will be occupying land belonging to a UN member state.

“‘We are facing a diplomatic-political tsunami that the majority of the public is unaware of and that will peak in September,’ said Ehud Barak, Israel’s defense minister, at a conference in Tel Aviv last month. ‘It is a very dangerous situation, one that requires action.’ He added, ‘Paralysis, rhetoric, inaction will deepen the isolation of Israel.’… [But the Palestinian side is adamant:] ‘We want to generate pressure on Israel to make it feel isolated and help it understand that there can be no talks without a stop to settlements,’ said Nabil Shaath, who leads the foreign affairs department of Fatah, the main party of the Palestinian Authority. ‘Without that, our goal is membership in the United Nations General Assembly in September.’” New York Times, April 2^nd.

And if you understand the issue, it is not the Security Council – where the United States has a veto right – where that recognition would take place; it is the General Assembly – the large body where all member nations vote. The next General Assembly meeting is in September, and the tide is moving steadily against Israeli intransigence. President Obama set a two year hopeful timeline for a peaceful solution to this impasse – two years ago. Bi-lateral talks between Israelis and Fatah negotiators fell apart months ago. By definition, imposing security obligations on a new Palestinian state would infringe any notion of national sovereignty, yet Israel obviously has much to fear from hostile neighbors who seem to be able to mount military assaults from adjacent lands.

Western Europe – perhaps fearing for a loss of access to oil – seems to be moving closer to the Palestinian position. In late March, “Foreign Secretary William Hague of Britain, for example, said … that one of the most important lessons to be learned from the Arab Spring was that ‘legitimate aspirations cannot be ignored and must be addressed.’ He added, referring to Israeli-Palestinian talks, ‘It cannot be in anyone’s interests if the new order of the region is determined at a time of minimum hope in the peace process.’…

“Germany, France and Britain say negotiations should be based on the 1967 lines with equivalent land swaps, exactly what the Netanyahu government rejects because it says it predetermines the outcome… ‘Does the world think it is going to force Israel to declare the 1967 lines and giving up Jerusalem as a basis for negotiation?’ asked a top Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity. ‘That will never happen.’” NY times. With an undefined Egyptian government next door, the solidity of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty is not clear. It is a moment for a peaceful and negotiated settlement to be implemented – with lots of outside pressure – or this region will have escalated to a new level of anger and desperation.

I’m Peter Dekom, and difficult issues require very strong and often unpopular solutions.