China Sin-Drone

For many Americans, the changes from radical Maoist communism to… er… whatever exists today – Chinese capitalism with a nominal communist government – are just too difficult to comprehend. For older Americans, with memories of Korean War footage of hordes of Chinese soldiers charging American machine gun emplacements with little or no concern for their own lives or the tales of American prisoners of war testifying to alarming brain-washing techniques at the hands of Chinese or Korean operatives, there is lingering suspicion of the “new” China. Despite the dramatic changes, the new urban landscape, the massive Chinese manufacturing capacity and even the spectacular opening and closing ceremonies at the last summer Olympics, there is disbelief.

But Chinese policies have equally been suspicious of American intentions, wondering when the other shoe will drop, given that the U.S. spends almost half of the money spent annually by governments on military personnel and equipment. To the Chinese, 9/11 and America’s shame in not being able to find bin Laden were almost welcome distractions… political events that would keep America’s hostile eyes focused on radicals in the Middle East and Central Asia… and not on China.

But with bin Laden gone, notwithstanding the obvious discomfort between the U.S. and Pakistan (a nuclear nation with a seeming inability to contain radicalism) and the escalating attacks by Taliban forces and suicide bombers in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, some Chinese leaders are concerned that the U.S. may soon refocus its hostilities on the Peoples Republic. Given the economic stranglehold that China has over the U.S. – from its dollar currency reserves to the massive dependence that America has on cheaper Chinese products – the prospect of open hostility by the U.S. has to be remote, but the fear lingers.

The May 6^th ForeignPolicy.com noted: “In [the May 5^th] edition of China's Communist Party-owned Global Times newspaper, the lead editorial was headlined, ‘After Bin Laden, will China become US's foe?’ Hoping that economic integration would defuse ‘right-wing paranoia’ about China in the United States, the editorial nevertheless concluded: ‘The rise of China is certain to cause friction’ in America. On [May 6^th], the paper led with an editorial… to admit that ‘China could be the loneliest rising power in world history.’”

The article’s author, John Lee, continues with this analysis: “China's focus on America is obsessive and omnipresent among its leaders and strategists. In a study of 100 recent articles by leading academics at CASS [Chinese Academy of Social Sciences], comprising the network of official state-backed think-tanks and institutes throughout the country, I found that about four in every five were about the United States -- whether it was seeking to understand the American system and political values, or describing how to limit, circumvent, bind, or otherwise reduce American power and influence. Of these themes, several emerged that help better understand the thinking behind editorials like the one in the Global Times.

“One is that Beijing views international politics in broadly neorealist terms. Chinese strategists believe the distribution of power in the world today will determine tomorrow's conflicts. China has long seen building competition between itself and America in particular as the inevitable and defining big-picture strategic play. In Beijing's thinking, tension can be managed, but never resolved, between the established power and the emerging one. Tension is a structural inevitability.” When a new big dog comes into the yard, he really does seem to focus on the big dog that is already there. We can expect a see-saw in Sino-American relations, as each side tests the limits of the other, backing off when the friction is simply too hot. But right now, China is bracing for a new American focus.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the huge shifts in power we have seen and will continue to experience should have deep impacts on the quality of our daily lives