Well-Armed Incumbent Elites

On March 26^th, in my Going Down in Up-Risings blog, I basically noted how violent uprisings only succeed on average only about 25% of the time. As Muammar Qaddafi’s forces endure the attacks from NATO aircraft, the colonel’s forces are still knocking down the disorganized, untrained and ill-equipped rebels fairly consistently, so consistently that allied commanders are going to have to address either aiding the insurrection with more or supporting a deal to see Muammar relinquish power with a “reformed” Qaddafi family (his sons) maintaining control. In Egypt, many thought that the years of greedy and repressive dictatorship were over. People were waiting to how democratic rule would be transitioned by a military that presumably sided with the people. Presumably.

It puzzled me that global opinion believed that the power elites of Egypt had finally lost control. Sure President Hosni Mubarak and his cabinet were run out of town after a mere 18 days of riots, a few “connected” families were tossed into the fire as token sacrificial lambs, but careful examination of Egypt tells you that the real power elite, a segment of the country that has its own wealth to protect, simply opted to change commanders – the military. Mubarak was Air Force all the way until he entered politics. A 1949 graduate of the Egyptian Military Academy, Mubarak moved his way up the ranks, from pilot to Air Chief Marshall from 1972 to 1975. Mubarak replaced Anwar Sadat, a former signal officer in the Army, who replaced Gamal Abdul Nasser, another former military officer. Notice a pattern here?

If you think for a minute that Egypt’s military ceded power to a yet-to-be elected populist democratically-elected government, think again. Mubarak was simply no longer fit for command. Post-Mubarak protests have continued in Cairo’s now-famous Tahrir Square as Egyptians continued to make it clear what kind of future they expect. The military, solidly in control, watched and waited… until the early morning hours of April 9^th: “Morning broke on a scene that wasn't supposed to be in the new Egypt: burned military trucks, skeins of barbed wire, blood in the dirt, one protester dead.

”In a predawn raid [April 9^th] that stunned the nation, Egyptian soldiers stormed Tahrir Square to disperse about 2,000 protesters angry at the ruling military council for failing to deliver democracy and bring corrupt officials to justice after the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak…. The capital's central square, a scene of celebration two months ago when Mubarak fell from power, became a surprise battlefield as soldiers beat protesters and tore down tents. One demonstrator was shot dead and 71 others were injured. The military said its troops fired only blanks, but prot esters said the air was peppered with live ammunition.” Los Angeles Times, April 9^th. The army called the protestors “counterrevolutionaries,” but frankly, these folks fighting for their rights were getting to be a pain in the military side.

I’m sure there will be some kind of “democratic” reform in Egypt, but it will be created and maintained under the watchful eye of the military, an organization that will crush any attempt to take away its wealth or curtail its real power: “Demonstrators say the ideals of the revolution have been abandoned by a military council led by Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi [pictured above], who brims with swagger and holds sway over a weak transitional government. The military has scheduled parliamentary elections and has arrested a number of former ministers in Mubarak's Cabinet, but it is not a democratic institution and it is straining to balance its authority with the demands of the people.” LA Times. If you’re rich and control all the weapons you could ever want or need, why would you just give your money and power to all those angry poor people with little or no hope? Let them earn it the old fashioned way: join the military!

I’m Peter Dekom, and with the earth subject to a roiling litany of media-encrusted events, sometimes you just might miss the “after-story” of a former first page headline.