Dry without a Sense of Humor

Even as flood waters ravaged the eastern seaboard – as Superstorm Sandy sent rainwaters and seawater surges to destroy lives, homes and infrastructure – 60% of the lower-48 part of the United States was experiencing a harsh reality of the opposite kind, one with severe long-term nasties. Drought, bad and getting worse. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center’s maintains a weekly Drought Monitor Report, what it pages are trending is bad news for farmers and consumer alike.

“The biggest area of exceptional drought, the most severe of the five categories listed by the Drought Monitor, centers over the Great Plains. Virtually all of Nebraska is in a deep drought, with more than three-fourths in the worst stage. But Nebraska, along with the Dakotas to the north, could still see things get worse ‘in the near future,’ the USDA's Eric Luebehusen wrote in [recent Monitor] update.

“The drought also has been intensifying in Kansas, the top U.S. producer of winter wheat. It also is entirely covered by drought, and the area in the worst stage rose nearly 4 percentage points to 34.5 percent as of [November 20^th]. Much of that increase was in southern Kansas, where rainfall has been 25 percent of normal over the past half year… After a summer in which farmers watched helpless as their corn dried up in the heat and their soybeans became stunted, many are now worrying about their winter wheat.” Weather.Aol.com, November 22^nd. With the groundwater in regional aquifers (particularly the massive Ogallala Aquifer) drying out at record rates, the future of this vital grain belt seems exceptionally bleak.

It’s not time to hit the panic button just yet, because the winter snows have yet to make their season’s fall. It takes about 20 inches of snowfall to generate an inch of water, and there is hope. And of course, not all of the Western regions are feeling the pain, but those that have experienced the worst in drought in recent years continue to be those hardest hit by the current inadequacy of desperately-needed water.

“‘The places that are getting precipitation, like the Pacific Northwest, are not in drought, while areas that need the rainfall to end the drought aren't getting it,’ added Richard Heim, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center. ‘I would expect the drought area to expand again’ [in the near term] since little rain is forecast in the Midwest in coming days.” Weather.Aol.com.

Is this global warming? Is it transitory? Farmland is still generating record prices, so speculators seem to believe that the croplands will return to full capacity in the foreseeable future. With rising incomes in developing countries – all upgrading the amount and quality of the food they eat – demand for agricultural products has no place to go but higher. And the efficient American farm machine has been pumping out foodstuffs for decades, one of this nation’s greatest exports. Is it (and hence our balance of payments) in further jeopardy?

The far west, outside of the coastal Pacific Northwest, is also riding a drought, and with thirsty mega-cities slorping away, experiencing water shortages at every level. Are the oceans rising? Are all of our low-lying coastal communities facing destruction over time? Is our agricultural heartland equally vulnerable, but to countervailing drought? Such disasters are hugely expensive to a deficit-plagued nation, desperately in need of economic stability and exportable products.

Who pays if it all happens at the same time? Can a nation – already polarized to the hilt economically and politically – hold together as massive regions of the country all demand federal resources to handle these natural disasters… at virtually the same time? Hey, anybody want to keep that big military budget large and perhaps even growing? Might need it to quell civil unrest and secession movements that are already germinating across this great land of ours.

I’m Peter Dekom, and dry has its limits!