Seas the Moment

Unlike the United States, which deploys military might all over the globe in support of its allies and its purported strategic interests, the People’s Republic of China maintains a general laissez faire attitude everywhere… except in its neighborhood. Not only is China sending a rather clear message to the world – we are the dominant power in Northern and Southeast Asia and will only expand this assertion – but it is screaming that the PRC will establish its colorable claims to regional assets… and intends to act on them. As Chinese officials invite U.S. diplomats and military officials to view their new aircraft carrier capacity, as they slowly escalate their assertion to their perceived entitlements to bits and pieces of regional coastal assets, their rippling of military muscle is anything but subtle.

We’ve seen the exchange of naval exercises (in which the U.S. participated under its treaty with Japan) in and around the two islands – known as the Senkaku Islands to the Japanese, Diaoyu Islands to the Chinese – in the East China Sea, as Japan and China each maintain rights to these tiny, uninhabited territories. As of now, the islands are part of Japan, but this dispute could result in a different, militarily enforced, result.

Across the region, China has reached back into bits and piece of history to justify additional claims to territorial fishing, mineral and fossil-fuel resources. Conflicting claims go beyond Japan to Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. While China has embraced dealing with these disputes through diplomatic means, her actions have often embraced more direct action. For example, recently Chinese military vessels accompanied an oil drilling rig that was deployed in disputed waters off the Vietnamese coast.

Not that conflicts between China and Vietnam are anything new. Vietnam has faced attacks from the north in 43 AD, 602, 938, 981, 1406, 1788 and, most recently, 1979. But the residents of these smaller nations are outraged. Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) was the scene of anti-Chinese riots in mid-May, but protestors mistook Taiwanese and South Korean businesses for PRC-owned entities, wreaking havoc with these foreign-owned factories.

“The explosion of violence reflected growing animosity in the region as China works to solidify its claims over vast parts of two seas that other nations have long considered their own… On [May 14^th], the conflict played out not only in Vietnam, but also in the Philippines, which said it lodged a formal protest with China over signs that it is reclaiming land at a contested coral reef. But so far, neither the Philippines nor Vietnam has gotten much backing among other Southeast Asian nations, some of which count on China for investment and aid…

“The recent moves by China — covering an area that stretches from Indonesia north to Japan — are part of what analysts see as an effort to create ‘facts’ in the waters that leave China’s less powerful neighbors with few good options for pushing back. Taken together, the actions escalate a longstanding battle that has only deepened with China’s military and economic rise.” New York Times, May 15^th.

The issues are complex and filled with conflicting self-interest among neighboring nations that depend on China for trade and economic support. Most of these nations are simply content to look the other way. Hapless Vietnam seems fairly isolated, but these events could become politically destabilizing realities for a regime that appears unable to protect itself from these assaults.

“Although Vietnam has been vehement in its opposition to the drilling rig and has in the past loosened tethers on anti-China sentiments, the protests pose a challenge for the authoritarian [Vietnamese] government, which is wary of unrest that could veer into calls for democracy and eager to maintain good relations with investors.

“The country’s leaders face difficult choices in how to respond to China’s latest challenge. Unlike Japan and the Philippines, Vietnam does not have a defense treaty with the United States, which has said it will stand by its allies. It is also more exposed to China’s growing assertiveness; a war, or even heightened conflict, could jeopardize the gains Vietnam has made in recent years after decades of occupation and fighting.

“But so far its efforts at diplomacy have failed. Vietnam tried bilateral negotiations with China, but the talk of sharing riches seemed hollow after China dispatched the oil rig without a warning. And Vietnam’s attempts to rally support among its fellow Association of Southeast Asian Nations last weekend fell mostly flat, with the nine other countries in the regional bloc offering only a vague call for diplomacy in place of unilateral action… The lack of good choices for holding off China might have contributed to the pent-up frustration released [in the mid-May violence].” NY Times.

The saga continues in the South China Sea, on reef west of the Philippine archipelago known as the Scarborough Shoal, rich fishing grounds claimed by both Manila and Beijing.  Scarborough is 550 nautical miles from Hainan Island, the closest Chinese port… a bit far, don’t you think? Filipino fisherman, who have trolled these waters all their working lives, are now sneaking into these cherished waters at night, hoping to avoid the Chinese coast guard vessels that have patrolled these waters over the past two years.

“The shoal is just one of a number of places in the South China and East China Seas caught in a tug of war between a rising China claiming vast swaths of resource-rich ocean and the other Asian nations that claim many of the same waters as their own.

“This particular conflict came to a head in April 2012 when the Philippines accused Chinese fishermen of poaching protected coral and giant clams from the area, about 124 miles off the west coast of the Philippine island of Luzon. A Philippine Coast Guard ship and several Chinese government ships were locked in a tense standoff for more than a month before the Filipinos withdrew. But the Chinese ships never left, instead setting up regular patrols to block entry and protecting Chinese fishing boats in the area.” New York Times, May 18^th.

“Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged on [May 21^st] that China is committed to peacefully resolving disputes over territory, and warned other countries that strengthening military alliances against a third party will not benefit security.” Reuters, May 21^st. Other than the fact that all diplomatic efforts to date have failed, peaceful gunboats are always appreciated by local fishermen. Ever ask yourself why so many military vessels from so many countries just happened to be in the area when Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 disappeared… ready to join the search? Coincidence? Yeah, right!

Wonder why the Philippine government  recently invited the United States back to a few of its former military bases, from which the U.S. was ousted in 1991? Hmmmm…. Guess it made Filipinos smile as an unexpected, fast-attack U.S. submarine – the USS North Carolina – surfaced in mid-May and promptly docked at the former U.S. naval base at Subic Bay. Not sure the PRC officers onboard the nearby Chinese gunboats shared that enthusiasm. I am beginning to hear the sound of boiling water.

Regional territorial expansionism by big powers seems unstoppable by an international community unwilling or unable to confront the biggest of the big who have glomming resources on their minds. As Russia escalates its vastly more severe expansionist views in Ukraine, with actual troops invading sovereign territory… followed by annexation (oil and gas-rich Crimea seems just the beginning)…  and China mounts its less ambitious but significant extra-territorial claims, the value of the United Nations to deal with such incursions is, to put it mildly, challenged. With both China and Russia holding Security Council veto rights, the U.N. becomes increasingly impotent to deal with some of the biggest disputes between its member nations. As resource values shift by reason of climate change, we should all assume that we are simply going to witness more “disputes” to lands and seas filled with our remaining natural resources.

I’m Peter Dekom, and shifting alignments, growing power in new developing nations, reactions to frustration and humiliation and challenges to natural resources by reason of climate change, suggest our future will be defined by growing international conflicts and confrontations.