Oy!

Likud is Israel’s ruling party – albeit through the necessity of a coalition government – and is Israel’s GOP-leaning-towards-Tea Party-conservatism. They’ve been in power for five years, as Israel’s economy has sputtered as the cost of living continues to rise. Challengers are even whispering that the once-sacrosanct military budget is out of control and needs to be cut. Even with Likud, factions are forming – one prominent wing under Moshe Kahlon – pushing back against Likud PM Benjamin Netanyahu, saying that enough is enough already. Likud needs, they say, to move more toward the center.

Despite the fact that Likud has been de facto the party challenged to find a peaceful solution to the Palestinian debacle, its leadership – particularly Netanyahu – have remained philosophically opposed to an independent state and have fostered the much-hated growth of Jewish settlements on the Palestinian-majority West Bank, now housing an estimated 500,000 Jewish residents. These remain armed camps (see above), unwanted Jewish enclaves representing occupation and right wing Israeli defiance to the score of local Palestinians who crave their own homeland. To conservative Israelis, these settlements are clear statements of their intention to stay in control over these contested lands.

Netanyahu inserted himself into the last U.S. presidential elections pushing for the election of Mitt Romney who sided with his view of the Palestinian issue. As the deeply anti-Israeli Hamas leaders in Palestine’s Gaza region began telling the world that they were in final negotiations with their more moderate Fatah brethren on the West Bank for a “unity” government over Palestine, Netanyahu went on the international trail begging the rest of the world not to recognize this abomination against his view of Israel’s best interests. He pointed to the numerous missile attacks launched from Gaza against Israeli targets and that such unity government would be a security threat to the existence of Israel. As did his earlier entreaties of the United Nations General Assembly not to recognize Palestine as a separate state, his efforts again fell on deaf ears almost everywhere except among leaders in the West.

Feeling global support and Israeli intransigence, the Palestinians believe that Likud is on the wrong side of history, nothing can be gained by dealing with Netanyahu and that their time for true independence is upon them. In fact, they are using Netanyahu’s tough stance to explain to the world why such negotiations with Israel are a waste of time.

Of course, pressures within Likud are also splitting the party with some more conservative members saying Netanyahu’s concessions to date – a willingness to trade some land for peace – are equally unacceptable. Attacks from Gaza coupled with the possibility of a new Unity government between Gaza and the West Bank have moved Netanyahu to cancel a scheduled prisoner release, required under the phased negotiations with Palestinian authorities. Even the remotest thoughts of a brokered peace between Israel and Palestine were frittering away.

Meanwhile, on June 2^nd, “President Mahmoud Abbas swore in a Palestinian unity government … taking a major step toward ending a crippling split with his Hamas rivals, but also setting the stage for new friction with Israel and possibly with the West.” Washington Post, June 2^nd. Hamas in Gaza and Fatah in the West Bank have each run their own separate governments until now. “Israel has announced it would shun the new government because it is backed by Hamas, which has killed hundreds of Israelis in attacks over the years and is considered a terror organization by Israel and the West.

“Israel has announced punitive steps in response to the formation of a unity government, though it has not said in detail what it would do. Abbas warned [on June 2^nd] that he would respond to any Israeli measure, but did not elaborate.

“The European Union and the U.S. have withheld judgment, but said they would only deal with a Palestinian government that recognizes Israel, renounces violence and adheres to agreements signed by its predecessors.” The Post.

But the doors at the U.N. are swinging wide open:  "The secretary-general welcomes, on the basis of assurances provided both publicly and to the United Nations, the announcement on 2 June by President Mahmoud Abbas of the formation of a government of national consensus headed by Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah," U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said [on June 3^rd, adding,] "The secretary-general (Ban Ki-moon) takes note of the renewed assurances yesterday by President Abbas that the government will continue to abide by those commitments of recognition of Israel, non-violence and adherence to previous agreements.” Israel has pretty much said with Hamas in the mix, all bets are off. Go figure how this is going to work!

These Palestinian factions have flirted with unity before, but they appear to be consolidating in a new push for international support for an independent Palestinian state now. How will the West react? Does Israel dig in its heels? I can see the next round of Hamas missiles launching, the Israeli counterattacks coming and violence maintaining its stranglehold on this entire region for the foreseeable future.

            I’m Peter Dekom, and solutions for peace in this region seem more elusive than ever.