Dry and on the Rocks

Back in 2010, a high ranking United Nations official stated that a sustained drought (since 1999, getting desperate by 2006) in northeastern Syria had placed two to three million Syrians, almost all Sunnis, into “extreme poverty.” Many were forced off the land, and while the Assad regime came to the rescue of some of the mega-wealthy landowners, the vast majority of these dispossessed people were left to fend for themselves. These impoverished farmers (and supporting townships) became the backbone of the Syrian rebellion. Until the “foreign fighters” joined their ranks, they provided most of the foot soldiers who challenged the Shiite (Alawite) regime in Damascus.

While I have blogged how climate change incentivized angry citizens with nothing left to lose to mount a violent insurrection against Bashir Assad and his cronies, the impact of climate change on this entire region seems to have since become a back-page story, if it is reported at all. But the rising sense of hopelessness, of losing it all with no place to go, is the backstory that just might explain ISIS’ traction with locals. For some, it is a way to fight for God, but for a vast number of others, ISIS is just the best alternative to topple insensitive and brutal regimes that have deprioritized poor Sunnis farmers into oblivion. Whatever the reason, ISIS’ brutality seems to be “getting the job done.”

The ultra-violence of ISIS – and the seeming sufficiency of popular support to sustain the spate of current attacks – would be better understood if the impact of climate change were accelerating, not only in Syria, but into the Iraqi territories that ISIS is penetrating. While the manifestation of hateful attacks pits desperate and abused Sunnis against governments run by seemingly callous Shiites, the subtext of economic devastation by reason of drought cannot be over-emphasized. Climate change, if you’ll pardon the parallel, is the fuel of this incendiary revolution. Not only has it provided the underlying seething anger, but idle hands unable to coax crops back to life have become the foot soldiers of the Sunni insurrection.

Indeed, the regional drought – impacting the combat zone in both Syria and Iraq – has only gotten worse. Water may in fact be the new oil. Syria is getting a whole lot worse: “‘[The United Nations] is concerned about the impact of a looming drought hitting the northwest of the country—mainly Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama—with rainfall less than half of the long-term average and potentially major impacts on the next cereal harvest,’ said [UN] World Food Programme spokeswoman Elisabeth Byrs.” Phys.org, April 8^th.

The situation in Iraq appears to mirror the Syrian experience: “The United Nations lists Iraq as ‘one of the Arab region's most vulnerable countries to climate change.’ In 2004, just after the American-led regime change, a Congressional Research Service report cited ‘rapid population growth coupled with limited arable land" and "a general stagnation of agricultural productivity’ after decades of conflict and mismanagement during the final Saddam years as the main reasons Iraq grew more reliant on imports of food amid international sanctions and the oil-for-food program. A major drought from 1999-2001 also hampered the country's ability to feed itself. Since then, conflict has raged and the climate has grown even more extreme, with alternating severe droughts and heavy rainstorms. From the United Nations Development Programme in 2009:

Iraq's wheat production this year was down 45 percent from a normal harvest, with similar reductions expected in the coming year. As a result, the country has experienced a massive loss of seed reserves for future planting, forcing the country to significantly increase food imports at great cost to the economy.

Meanwhile, farmers are abandoning their fields en masse and moving to urban centres, a trend that has placed more stress on cities in Iraq that are already struggling to provide basic social services and economic opportunities to growing urban populations. As a result, social tensions and the risk of crime have increased.” Mother Jones, June 30^th.

Record temperatures throughout the region with devastating and accelerating impact on agriculture have created widening swathes of poverty and desperation that seem to be statistically linked to the violent civil conflicts in the area: “A study published last year in the journal Science showed a strong connection between high temperatures and political instability, like civil wars, riots, and ethnic violence, though the cause is not well known. A previous study has linked dehydration with decreased cognitive performance and increased levels of anxiety.

“Sure enough, this year has been unusually hot so far in Iraq with the March-April-May season ranking as the warmest on record across much of the country. (Reliable records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration date back to 1880.) The emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria around the same time may just be an interesting coincidence, but the implications are important enough for us to consider a broader connection.” Mother Jones.

For selfish climate change deniers, unable to alter their consumption patterns to fit contemporary reality and using “God will provide” excuse to justify their environmental gluttony – even as drought impacts major food production centers even in the United States, this is but a glimpse of what happens when utter desperation trumps everything else. If we want “more of the same,” we are most definitely on the right track.

I’m Peter Dekom, and if enough of us scream loudly enough, perhaps we might make a difference… perhaps!