Paper Tiger or Spoiling for a Fight?

Vladimir Putin is enjoying record popularity. His strong-arm tactics seem to be infusing his people with newfound pride, perhaps even visions of reuniting the pieces of the former Soviet Union under Moscow’s steel-tipped boot… either by annexation or hegemony based on a carrot (oil and gas) and stick (no oil, no gas, and military destabilization if not direct invasion or support of rebellious ethnic Russians).

Putin desperately needs outsiders to blame for his dramatic failures at home, as his economy – despite his ruble prop-up measures – plunges from the double whammy of the impact of Western sanctions and the precipitous fall in the price of Russia’s number one economic resource: fossil fuels. So far, Putin’s popularity remains unscathed by such economic machinations; the Russians seem to be reveling in suffering on behalf of the motherland, a Russian tradition, it seems. But life in Russia is nasty and getting worse. Putin needs scapegoats desperately, because sooner or later, his popularity faces the risk of collapse under the reality of economic misery.

The Ukraine has been Putin’s test case. He has been using the purported disenfranchisement of “ethnic Russians” – first in Crimea which he simply invaded and annexed, then in the current malaise in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces (operating under a veil of denial from Moscow) continue to destabilize that country – much the way Adolph Hitler used the “disenfranchisement of ethnic Germans” in Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland as an excuse to invade and annex that territory just before the outbreak of World War II. Hitler’s continued annexations eventually triggered WWII, historical precedents not lost on global leaders. Indeed, the new CIS nations, with enclaves of ethnic Russians, bordering or near to Russia are quivering in fear at Putin’s intentions.

But let’s face it, none of those neighboring countries really wants to be back into Moscow’s stranglehold orbit. They remember what it was like under the old regime, and Russia was hardly a benevolent ruling force to its cowering subjects. So these fearful countries are increasingly looking to economic alliances with a more open, supportive and tolerant Europe and the US.

Many Eastern Bloc nations are now EU members and members of NATO. Those CIS countries that hover outside this realm often seek that connective tissue, even as Russia threatens to cut them off from its oil and gas, offers them huge checks as bribes, and hints at awakening the Russian minorities that live in those countries to destabilize their entire political and economic systems. Itself dependent on Russian oil and gas, Europe is also equivocating on taking too strong a stand against Moscow.

So with Ukraine telling the world it is opting out of being a non-aligned nation toward effecting closer ties with the West, perhaps even NATO membership, Putin’s test case is putting Moscow in a very awkward place. And if any of these nations actually join NATO, and Russia makes a move, we will jump right over the new Cold War with Moscow into direct military conflict that could explode into a full-on nuclear “MADD” conflict that would make the battle with the Islamic State seem like a minor skirmish.

Indeed, Putin is actually threatening a very real war against the NATO alliance: “Russia named NATO's military buildup near its border as the main military threat and raised the possibility of using precision conventional weapons as a ‘strategic deterrent,’ according to the nation's new military doctrine signed by President Vladimir Putin [December 26^th]… NATO flatly denied it was a threat to Russia, and accused Russia of undermining European security.

“The new doctrine, which comes amid Russia-West tensions over Ukraine, maintains the provisions of the previous, 2010 edition of the military doctrine regarding the use of nuclear weapons… It says Russia could use nuclear weapons in retaliation to the use of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression involving conventional weapons that ‘threatens the very existence’ of the Russian state.” AOL.com, December 26^th.

While Russia has a history of brinkmanship, the fact that it actually invaded Crimea tells us all that sometimes they just cannot help themselves. Their willingness to use and support force to get their way may eventually go too far, extracting a Hot War when talking and negotiating is a vastly better solution.

Whatever happens, we now know that Putin has clearly defined himself and Russia as the enemy of the West, and despite the trade linkage, we need to understand that a new Cold War may be the best we can hope for. Perhaps Russia’s support of totalitarian Islamic regimes – from Assad’s Syria to Iran – may create the kind of blowback that the NATO allies have been feeling for years. One way or another, we need to be on red alert!

I’m Peter Dekom, and the earth has seldom seen so many potential major flashpoints that threaten us every day.