Donetsk, Don’t Tell

The never-ending supply of sophisticated and traditional weapons alike from Moscow to its surrogates in Eastern Ukraine, accompanied with ample evidence in support of the obvious, by Russian soldiers who have crossed the border to fight has resulted in a struggle without end, and even in the shooting down of a Malaysian passenger jet. Using the Hitler-justification to support the attack (“we’re protecting people of our ethnic heritage over there”), blended with a litany of denials that they are actively engaged in supplying soldiers and munitions to the rebels, Moscow continues to defy most of the rest of the world with flagrant disdain. Human rights abuses plague both sides to this conflict, however.

Ukraine has flirted both with joining the European Union and NATO, but its heavy reliance on Russian fossil fuels pushed it, for a while, into becoming a non-aligned nation. It relied on a 1997 treaty with Russia, giving up its nukes and dividing up the once common military weapons in exchange for Russia pledge to recognize Ukrainian territory. We know the result of that diplomatic misstep: Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea and is actively supporting a pro-Moscow separatist movement that threatens to tear the eastern part of Ukraine from Kiev.

But even as Ukraine continues to rely on Russian natural gas to stay warm over harsh winters, it has moved away from its non-aligned status with growing popular support for formal NATO affiliation. There is a balancing act going on. The United States and its Western allies have applied high-pressure economic sanctions, which when combined with the collapse of fossil fuel prices, have tanked the Russian economy. With a history of accepting suffering for the “motherland,” Russians have steeled themselves against economic suffering, accepted their fate for the moment, rallying to support Vladimir Putin’s aggressive militancy. They see visions of restoring what were once the massive Soviet bloc dancing before their Russian eyes. They have witnessed the humiliation of the break-up of the USSR and her vastly reduced global political power.

So Russia isn’t showing any signs of slowing down their onslaught against eastern Ukraine. Damn global opinion, and who cares how many innocent civilians must perish in their expansionist dreams. Sanctions only allow Russian citizens to feel unity with their motherland in an intense personal experience. A series of recent attacks and bomb blasts killing dozens of civilians has escalated the military instability of Eastern Ukraine, provoking top NATO brass to want a greater response in support of Ukraine than mere sanctions.

January was bad, but February in Eastern Ukraine started off even worse: “Up to 16 civilians have been killed and dozens more injured in the space of 24 hours in fighting in eastern Ukraine, as the UN warns that the fresh surge in violence is proving ‘catastrophic.’” BBC.com, February 3^rd.

“With Russian-backed separatists pressing their attacks in Ukraine, NATO’s military commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, now supports providing defensive weapons and equipment to Kiev’s beleaguered forces, and an array of administration and military officials appear to be edging toward that position, American officials said [February 1^st].

“[And while the Obama administration has not made any formal commitments towards this end, there are signs of a change.] Secretary of State John Kerry, [with a visit to Ukraine further complicating the situation], is open to new discussions about providing lethal assistance, as is Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who is leaving his post soon, backs sending defensive weapons to the Ukrainian forces… In recent months, Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, has resisted proposals to provide lethal assistance, several officials said. But one official who is familiar with her views insisted that Ms. Rice was now prepared to reconsider the issue.” New York Times, February 1^st.

Administration officials seem to have reached the conclusion that without such aid, Eastern Ukraine will fall, and Putin would perhaps be motivated to use that same excuse to move into other former Soviet bloc countries under the same ruse… or at least be able to intimate Moscow’s former charges into de facto submission to Russian mandates. Europe, also reliant on Russian gas exports, has to be uneasy at these changes. Such a NATO policy would result in a rather direct military conflict between Russian and the West – another dreaded “proxy war” between Washington and Moscow, something that we tried to avoid during the Cold War… but failed. There are no easy choices, but the challenge to our foreign policy is rather extreme.

I’m Peter Dekom, and maintaining a large military with the greatest capacity on earth does seem to generate a proclivity towards military solutions.