Stupid Democrats, Old and Angry Republicans, Confused Independents

According to Gallup (as of February 8^th), the skew of American political affiliations looks like this: Republicans – 25%, Democrats – 29%, Independents – 43%; when you look at the general sympathies, the split expands dramatically: Republicans and their sympathizers – 43%, Democrats and their sympathizers – 44%. Anger at government, Evangelical values and belief in fiscal responsibility pulls folks towards the GOP; income, gender, racial and ethnic inequality, a belief in the need for governmental environmental and financial regulation and stronger social programs tugs folks toward the Dems. What we have is a rather firmly polarized electorate, but a closer look at the middle tells you that both elephants and donkeys have issues at their extremes that they need to deal with.

Further, as younger voters move into the system – so far fairly disengaged from the voting process – the tolerance for folks with different lifestyles seems to be uniformly growing. Even as younger voters laugh at the thought of individual privacy, they still rail at government snooping, but when the government starts to impinge on their social choices and lifestyles, they react… badly. Oddly, as social liberals want increasing government regulation of environmental and financial misdeeds or exclusionary voting policies, social conservatives want laws that regulate social choices like marriage, abortion and divergent lifestyle choices. Government actions are seen as “intrusive” only when they support a value that the adherent, right or left, rejects.

The GOP has interpreted the last set of mid-terms as a mandate for social conservatism, and despite their pledge to keep the government running without a shutdown, that promise has vaporized into arrogant ether. Democrats on the other hand are running in circles, trying to figure out who they are and what they stand for, waiting for their “inevitable” Hillary Clinton presidential candidacy is announced, hopefully able to tell them what they should do. Clinton is working behind the scenes to generate across-the-board support from all segments of the party. Some political pros worry that she represents incumbency (which voters seem to reject) and has been around so long at the edge of her campaign that she is old and boring news. If Ms. Clinton chooses not to run, expect an eruption of chaos across the entire party.

Most of the GOP seems hell-bent on advancing Evangelical social conservatism as the main plank of their going-forward policies. They have little or no concern for environmental damages, still dispute that climate change is primarily man-induced, and their recipe for handling income inequality is simply to reduce regulations and taxes for the rich in a hopeful reverse of clear economic reality to the contrary… that good solid jobs will somehow appear as a result. At least they have a uniform policy. The Dems are anything but clear in their goals.

But nothing tells you about this shift to the right more than the current GOP-front-runner’s shift in his own message to the GOP constituency. “It was a memorable political ad: Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin spoke directly into the camera in a 30-second spot last fall and called abortion an ‘agonizing’ decision. He described himself as pro-life but, borrowing the language of the abortion rights movement, pointed to legislation he signed that leaves ‘the final decision to a woman and her doctor.’

“That language was gone when Mr. Walker met privately with Iowa Republicans in a hotel conference room last month, according to a person who attended the meeting. There, he highlighted his early support for a ‘personhood amendment,’ which defines life as beginning at conception and would effectively prohibit all abortions and some methods of birth control.

“Mr. Walker has quickly vaulted into the top tier of likely Republican candidates in the presidential race, surging on the reputation he earned by taking on labor unions and surviving a bitter recall election in a swing state.” New York Times, February 21^st.

While this move to the social right will play magnificently with the Tea Party/Evangelical Base, it is hard to see such a policy resonating across the rest of the nation, especially independents wary of a government telling them what they can do within the privacy of their own lives. But unless Democrats capitalize on this potential intrusion as a different kind of governmental over-regulation, they will simply continue to allow the GOP to hold the high ground. The GOP has a real issue of moving more towards the center, and that could be their Achilles Heel.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the American political landscape is exclusionary, polarized and beyond confused.