The Red Brick Wall

The speed of microprocessors is fast, damned fast. They’re the little devils in our smart phones, tablets, laptops, computers… automated electronic controllers of every sort and description… that take the installed programs and stored or inputted data and produce the results. The little engine that could and does. But for scientists in the semiconductor industry – chip-makers to the rest of us – their ability to increase the efficiency of tiny transistors has slowed significantly over the past decade as they hit that “red brick wall,” where, as wires get smaller and smaller (mostly on printed circuits), heat and resistance build up and efficiency plunges. That wall is about to crumble, according to a report issued by IMB’s Thomas J. Watson Research Center.

So you might ask yourself why this is remotely important, but this is one of those “obscure facts” that is likely to have a rather profound effect on, well, everything. While these technologies are not going to happen overnight, they will enable computing to take place with smaller processors while generating a whole lot faster processing speed. When wires become a couple of atoms wide, the distance traveled is shorter, and when aggregated over a mass of these processors that are operating at billions if not trillions of little “decisions” a second, the resulting increase in speed is mind-blowing. Enter the energy efficient carbon fiber nanotube (sometimes referred to as “CNT” and where only one layer or wall of carbon is used, “SWCNT,” as illustrated in the above picture).

“The IBM researchers said that, in simulations, they had been able to design versions of microprocessors that were optimized either for high performance or for low power consumption… By simply swapping carbon nanotube transistors for conventional ones in a simulated IBM microprocessor, they were able to increase speeds by a factor of seven, or, alternatively, achieve power savings almost as significant, said Wilfried Haensch, an IBM physicist who is a member of the research group.” New York Times, October 1^st.

Faster and smaller processors impact AI (artificial intelligence), shoving more capacity into smaller spaces. Machines become more efficient, can replicate more “human functionality,” and they will materially alter everything from battlefield technology to what kinds of jobs will disappear… and what new jobs will prioritize. Our homes, cars, offices and factories will change. New social issues, heavily impacting education and job obsolescence, will become political focal points. For many, life will get vastly better. For others, unless society cares, they will be left behind. It’s the kind of human progress that continues… and continues at an accelerated pace that changes the world materially at “warp” speed. Polarization issues will amplify; life for some will get much easier… and for others, become intolerably difficult.

The technology is based on the implementation of carbon nanotubes, literally atomic-sized tubes of carbon fiber through which electrons can flow (literally like water through plumbing) with virtually no heat or resistance. Scientists believe that by the beginning of the next decade, they can shrink the distance electrons need to travel to a mere 40 atoms in length… 28 atoms a few years after that. Carbon fiber nanotubes could also replace copper wire for long range electrical transmission, not only eliminating significant energy loss as electricity travels over great distances (energy that dies off from resistance and heat) but reducing the number of massive towers needed to carry those lines because of the increased strength and decreased weight of those carbon fiber wires.

“The [IBM] report represents a big advance for an exotic semiconductor material that has long held great promise but has also proved maddeningly difficult for scientists to work with. Single-wall carbon nanotubes are strawlike structures that are a composed of a one-atom thick matrix of carbon atoms rolled into an infinitesimally small tube…The challenge of carbon nanotubes in their typical state is that they form what scientists call a giant ‘hairball’ of interwoven molecules.

“However, researchers have found ways to align them closely and in regularly spaced rows and deposit them on silicon wafers with great precision. They then serve the crucial role of a semiconductor, allowing electrical current to be switched on and off in a computer circuit… Until now, however, they have been just one of a range of new materials that have been seen as candidates to replace silicon, which has for more than half a century been the material of choice for chip makers.” New York Times.

But there is a fly in this ointment, one that may slow but not stop development. It seems that these carbon fibers mimic the same kind of carcinogenic toxicity of asbestos fibers. Working with carbon fiber nanotubes is dangerous, and if such carbon fiber technology applies sizeable amount of these nanotubes into our daily lives, clearly managing that toxicity becomes materially important. Treating the fiber with certain chemicals reduces toxicity, and ultra-short fibers have been shown to have little or no toxicity. But the risks of handling CNT fibers are still important to understand.

“Under certain conditions CNTs can enter human cells and accumulate in the cytoplasm, causing cell death…Results of rodent studies collectively show that regardless of the process by which CNTs were synthesized and the types and amounts of metals they contained, CNTs were capable of producing inflammation, epithelioid granulomas (microscopic nodules), fibrosis, and biochemical/toxicological changes in the lungs. Comparative toxicity studies in which mice were given equal weights of test materials showed that SWCNTs were more toxic than quartz, which is considered a serious occupational health hazard when chronically inhaled. As a control, ultrafine carbon black was shown to produce minimal lung responses.” Wikipedia.

In the end, this technology will be deployed. The physical risks will be managed, but the impact of increased computing capacity on society will continue to reshape who we are as human beings and test our seemingly waning moral courage. So what may appear as a little tekkie blog may significantly alter your future and the future of coming generations into a new world that will be unrecognizable by current standards. Elon Musk? Bill Gates? Are you even more concerned about AI in our future? Quiver with a bit more fear.

I’m Peter Dekom, and the most obscure articles in some technology journal can portend the biggest changes in human experience.