Machines have slowly made much of the drudgery of hard manual labor tolerable, manageable and often efficient. Men controlled the machines, and progress has accelerated over the years. The one component of automation – self-correcting, learning and innovating machines – has been viewed as a spirited possibility fit for a futuristic film. The Terminator series movies dealt with LAWS – lethal autonomous weapon systems – most of us believe that sometime years from now, such robots will trash each other on the battlefield. But with drones and cruise missiles with autonomous target identification systems, there is often no human being making the “firing” decisions. That’s today!
Elon Musk and Bill Gates have warned us of the dangers of the increasing sophistication of machines guided by so-called “artificial intelligence.” With human beings spared the direct risk of engagement in conflict, the temptation of going to war has to be that much easier. Picture how many fewer conflicts there would be if we had to draft our youngest adults to fight a war before we engaged the enemy? Ethical issues abound. Especially if the machines themselves determine that their superiority merits taking over the world, a la Terminator.
But the real concern for most of us has to be what happens in a world where virtually any physical or knowledge-based job can, sooner or later, be performed most effectively and more efficiently than a human counterpart. In a world of rising unemployment, how exactly are human beings losing opportunities for productive work going to support themselves when half the jobs on earth can be accomplished better by machines, many empowered with self-directing, learning artificial intelligence? Our capitalist, market-driven values, will tell you that we cannot pay those who cannot find an economic place in society. They will have to wither away and die under current governmental assumptions. Really?
Another view has human beings benefitting by building, designing and maintaining these new machines of the future, but that view has to be predicated on a belief that humans can perform such tasks better than machines, an assumption that artificial intelligence (AI) has severe limits that cannot supersede human skills. Quite an assumption.
Perhaps only those who own the robots of the future will merit pay (like the one-percenters of today)… and perhaps that segment of society that focuses on “relationship” work – person-on-person communication and care – will find an earning place in this new society. And contrary to mass assumptions, the threats are not something for future generations to consider; the issues are here, now and likely to accelerate fast.
The November 13th FastCompany.com frames these issues: “Over the last few years, we've heard a lot about how artificial intelligence could put large numbers of people out of work. An often-cited study from Oxford University found that 47% of jobs in America are at ‘high risk of computerization’ in the next 20 years. And more recent research from Forrester predicts a net loss of 9.1 million jobs in the next decade.
“A new McKinsey report sees things slightly differently. Yes, advances in AI and the like will cause a big wave of automation, it says. But it won't necessarily lead to job losses. Rather, many jobs will be redefined by technology, with the boring, rote stuff done by computers, and the exciting, creative stuff done by humans…
“The research says 45% of paid activities could be automated using ‘currently demonstrated technologies,’ and that these activities represent about $2 trillion in annual wages. Sixty percent of occupations could have 30% or more of their activities automated, but only 5% of occupations could be eliminated completely, at least using today's tech.” What impacted blue collar workers over the past century and a half is slowly making inroads into high-end service professions today: lawyers, medical diagnosticians (we call them doctors), surgeons (more doctors), accountants, financial analysts, investment advisors and even CEOs.
We’re already seeing this displacement happening all around us. Maybe in developing countries – locked in a time-warp that is still mired in the eighteen century – subsistence farmers will just keep struggling for the foreseeable future. But as the opportunity for automation grows, so will be the big issue: will society learn to support and care for people who have been displaced by automation under a futuristic model that mirrors communism more than capitalism? Or will “unproductive” human beings just wither away. The temptation to replace humans with machines is only growing, and we are just seeing the most basic versions of AI that are sure to blow our minds with their sophistication over the coming years.
“Automation clearly presents a lot of benefits to companies, and not only because of reduced labor costs. It estimates the pay-off could equal three to 10 times the cost of investment, and says artificial intelligence will generally free up people to be more creative. For example, financial advisors could spend less time analyzing their clients' finances (computers will do that) and more time understanding needs and explaining options.
“It's worth noting that the discussion only encompasses currently available technology. It says nothing about the implications of future advances, which are surely coming. Robots may well take over eventually, putting many people out of work, just not quite yet.” FastCompany.com. If not now or tomorrow, when? Estimates are that by 2025, as many as one third of current American jobs will be displaced. What exactly will happen to those displaced? New opportunities or ?????
I’m Peter Dekom, and such rapidly advancing changes will require us all to reexamine the very basis of our modern socio-political systems.
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