Thursday, December 29, 2016
A Manchurian Candidate?
President-elect Donald
Trump has championed expanding and upgrading America’s military as one of his
basic campaign pledges. This is very consistent with a general GOP platform to
cut spending on everything except the military… which includes serious
Republican skepticism on The Donald’s pledge to build an expensive wall (even
if Mexico would ever really “pay for it”) and commit a massive amount of fresh
cash to build and enhance American infrastructure. So far, we get it.
But there remains
an undercurrent of connectivity to Vladimir Putin and Russia, a troublesome
cozying up to a foreign power that, according to the CIA and the FBI (the same
FBI who cast enough 11th hour doubt on Hillary Clinton to shift what may
well have been enough votes to propel Trump to the White House), has covertly
but massively used its hackers and its disinformation capacity to influence the
election in favor of Donald Trump. The orders, they say, came from the top.
Trump is calling for an end to investigation (by our intelligence agencies and
even the U.S. Congress!!!) and innuendo over this Russian effort even as
members of his own party voice concern over this terrifying foreign effort to
control the American election process.
Trump repeated,
“Get over it” and “Move on!” as he characterized the excuse of a purported
Russian hack (which he still denied occurred) as a left wing conspiracy to
diminish his victory. But as GOP House Speaker, Paul Ryan – whose had the same
intelligence briefings as has Trump – declared such retaliatory steps (against
the hacks) to be “too little, too late,” on December 29th, President Obama
expelled 35 Russian diplomats (read: spy-masters), shutting down several
Russian entities American operations and implementing covert attacks against
Russia’s Internet infrastructure. Trump was not pleased that his Bro-Putie was
being chastised across the board.
These were the most
impactful political sanctions that the U.S. has imposed on Russia (actually,
then the USSR) since the 1980s. Infuriated, the Russians promised their own
retaliation (which will include expelling a comparable number of American
diplomats plus a lot more). Trump can only reverse such sanctions upon a clear
determination that the Russians have ceased the very activities he still claims
never happened. Since most in his own party believe the Russian assault on our
Web actually occurred, that is a tough burden to overcome.
Bully-Putin – who
is still facing global sanctions for his wrongful annexation of Crimea and his
assaults on Ukraine – has become Tehran’s and Damascus’ new best friend in
Middle Eastern politics and suppression of ISIS and anti-Assad Syrian rebels.
Most of the forces liberating Aleppo were Iranian troops or surrogates (on
their payroll) plus their controlled-Iraqi soldiers, with heavy Russian support
(primarily air power). Until recently, both the Iranian government and the
Assad regime in Damascus were clear enemies of the United States. Trump has
even questioned the UN nuclear accord with Iran, but his bromance – a constant
exchange of compliments between him and Putin – will of necessity put him in
the same camp as Iran and the Assad regime in Syria. Strange?
Putin and Turkey
brokered a ceasefire between Assad and his domestic rebels (but not ISIS or the
Al Nusra faction), pretty much having Russia replace the last real vestiges of
American influence in that region. Trump will likely follow Putin’s directions
for policy in that combat zone.
It gets more interesting
as Trump has nominated ExxonMobil CEO, Rex Tillerson, as our Secretary of
State. Tillerson even negotiated a major agreement with Russian oil giant,
Rosneft (over Arctic oil) for which Putin awarded Tillerson Russia's
prestigious Order of Friendship in 2013. You couldn’t find a major America
power-player with closer personal ties to Putin. But wait, there’s more.
Putin expressed a
need, on December 22nd, for Russia to upgrade its nuclear arsenal. On that same
day, Donald Trump – resorting to his policy-by-Tweet habit – told the world
that the U.S. “must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until
such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.” But what did that
mean? An upgrade of outdated and aging nukes? A bigger nuclear strike force?
Was this un-Trumplike challenge/response to his bro, Vladdy? The answer was not
long in coming. “MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski spoke with Trump on the phone and
asked him to expand on his tweet. She said he responded: ‘Let it be an arms
race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.’
“Shares of uranium
producers and a nuclear fuel technology company have jumped on Trump's comments
with Uranium Resources Inc, Uranium Energy Corp, Cameco Corp and Lightbridge
Corp all trading higher on [December 23rd].” AOL.com, December 23rd. A new arms
race?! Politicians around the world were aghast. Trump’s new press secretary,
Sean Spicer, awkwardly explained that Trump expected the world simply to come
to its senses, something that the “world” has seldom done.
Spicer focused on China
and Russia, but here’s the really bizarre part: For most of Russia’s recent
history, you would expect it to mount a furious and angry denunciation of such
American militaristic statements. But not here. It does not seem that Trump and
Russia were remotely at odds. What? “In his year-end news conference in Moscow
on Friday [12/23], Putin said Trump's comment … was not out of line and that he
did not consider the United States to be a potential aggressor.” AOL.com. Were
these almost-simultaneous nuclear expansion announcements a mutually agreed
effort between Vladdy and Donald?
Vladdy did feign a
rather understated reaction: “‘I was a bit surprised by the statements from
some representatives of the current U.S. administration who for some reason started
to prove that the U.S. military was the most powerful in the world,’ Putin
said, referring to State Department comments from Thursday… ‘Nobody is arguing
with that.’… Putin said he saw nothing new or remarkable about Trump's own
statement about wanting to expand U.S. nuclear capabilities anyway.” AOL.com.
Doesn’t sound like the Putin we have come to expect, does it? Think he really
was surprised? Russia may rail at the U.S. government under Barack Obama over
the hacking scandal, but their candidate-of-choice assumes power on January 20th.
And Mr. Trump seems to be doing precisely what Bro-Putie wants him to do.
What’s going on
here? A realignment of the United States and Russia, clearly at the expense of
the only other major military power in the world, China? And where does this
lead? Is this a very clever way for Trump – deploying the infamous “Madman
Theory” from the Nixon era – to create sufficient destabilization to throw
China back on its heels, “forcing” them to the diplomatic bargaining table for
trade concessions? But then, strongman PRC President Xi Jinping could
just double down himself. Brinkmanship for its own sake?
Or is it the
uncontrolled response of America’s own “strongman” that he doesn’t care about
international sentiments and will deploy whatever it takes to make “America
Great again,” even at the expense of increasing the likelihood of a nuclear
strike somewhere? That doesn’t completely explain the unexpectedly complacent
Russian reaction. When you put all of the above facts together – and look at
how close Putin and Trump have become – there is a deeply more sinister view:
has Russia achieved planting its own Manchurian Candidate (did you
see the movie?) as the President of the United States of America?
I’m
Peter Dekom, and whatever the interpretation of the above events, it does seem
as if both Republicans and Democrats are justifiably squirming in their seats.
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1 comment:
Dekom: As a Trump-pleasing gesture - to show the world that Russia is really a "good guy" - Bro-Putie ignored the recommendations from his foreign ministry and announced on December 30th that he would not deport an offsetting number of American diplomats. This gesture, as positive as it may seem at first blush - is deeply troubling.
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