When Does the Civil War Start, Again?

 

For too many, it’s not rhetorical question. If Donald Trump loses the election but refuses to vacate the White House or, worse, calls on his followers to show their support (which many would interpret at a call to arms), that could be the tipping point. If the Senate were to refuse to ratify his continued reign or the Supreme Court ruled that the ballots cast (by mail or otherwise) mandate that Mr. Trump step down and accept Joe Biden as President, Trump’s supporters could easily be incited under Trump’s “rigged election” rallying cry against mail-in ballots… a rally that would undoubtedly include some exceptionally well-armed Trumpers. After the grand debate, Trump’s Proud Boys reference and his storming about how bad the election would get, the doubts and concerns certainly escalated.

Equally, on the other hand, should a Senate or a Supreme Court decision effectively support Trump’s reelection, either by accepting his claim of fraud and election rigging or simply by cutting off the time to count the flood of mail-in ballots, you can expect massive protests, likely to turn violent, by masses of left-leaning constituents, including their most radical and equally well-armed extremists. The President’s middle son, Eric, announced to the world that his father was likely to concede only if he faced an overwhelming loss at the polls.

The Republican race to install an extreme right-wing Supreme Court justice, which if successful (probable) will almost necessitate that Democrats, should they dominate the Congress and take the presidency, stack the court quickly after the election. This just adds massive fuel to an already angry simmering political fire.

Yet Americans want an orderly transfer of power. Even right-wing Mitch McConnell pledged an orderly transition no matter who is elected. That does not, of course, exclude political manipulation and game-playing, but the words echo the majority American sentiment. That desire, while huge, is most certainly not shared among the most radical elements of the left and right, each believing that their way must be the only way.

Writing for the September 27^th Los Angeles Times, Mark Z. Barabak and Jenny Jarvie look at the numbers and the underlying beliefs: “When Jim Jackson looks ahead to November, he cringes at what he sees: a defeated President Trump refusing to leave the White House and his supporters waging war to keep him there… ‘The militias and the white supremacists ... they’re going to put out the call to arms,’ said Jackson, 73, who lives in the conservative-leaning suburbs of Milwaukee and voted Republican for 52 years, but not for Trump. ‘That’s my worst nightmare.’

“Jeanine Davis shares his concern, though for different reasons… Seated near the Huntington Beach Pier [California], wearing a red ‘Keep America Great’ hat, the Trump supporter suggested Democrats will do whatever it takes to elect Joe Biden, and riot if they fail. ‘It’s going to be like war amongst citizens,’ said Davis, an executive recruiter in her 50s.

“Candidates often say a presidential contest is the most important ever, telling voters to act as though their life depended on it and the country’s future was at stake. Dozens of conversations with voters across the nation — from the West Coast to the Upper Midwest to the East — suggest that, this time, many people really believe it .

“Punished by pandemic , buckled by economic hardship and riven by relentless partisanship , America is facing an election unlike any in modern times, a vote shadowed by menace and fringed with paranoia — much of it fed by the occupant of the Oval Office, who incessantly acts to undermine confidence in the result… ‘He’s essentially trying to pull off a coup,’ said Frank Dudek, a 70-year-old retiree, after casting his ballot at an early vote center in Arlington, Va., just outside the nation’s capital.

“Some voters worry about frayed family ties. Others see the whole country unraveling. A significant number consider threats and violence a reasonable way to solve partisan differences… ‘You have all these things — the pandemic, the protests, the counterprotests, the Black vs. white, the right against the left,’ said Allison Trammell, 60, an Atlanta social worker who supports Biden. ‘It’s almost like everything is coming up at the same time and there’s no equilibrium. There’s no middle ground.’

“What is more, many are acting on their fears, anticipating all manner of chaos, up to and including armed insurrection. They’re flooding gun stores and shooting ranges, stockpiling ammunition and provisioning for a postelection dystopia.” But how many people shooting guns, engaging in angry mass protests, does it take before an obviously deeply divided, frustrated and angry populace moves from begrudging acceptance of the political results to a full-on civil war? Most Americans assume that normalcy will return after the election, perhaps after a short period of challenges. Others… not so much.

“Ashley Avis, a 36-year-old nurse, was recently out with her father and 2-year-old son in Pinellas Park, Fla., buying plywood to board up their windows in case of civil unrest. She also plans to secure an alternative water supply, lest the public works around Tampa Bay are taken out of commission… ‘We’re hoping for the best,’ said the Trump supporter. ‘We’re preparing for the worst.’

“Across the country, in a working-class neighborhood on Las Vegas’ east side, Michael Martinez said he, too, planned to lay in extra food and water ‘just in case there’s a disruption in our food delivery systems and whatnot.’… As starkly as the country is divided, a poll for the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, a collection of experts across the political spectrum, found the overwhelming majority of Americans believe there is no place for violence in the country’s political system… (The quietude of recent decades is a relatively recent phenomenon. Violence around elections was not uncommon in the 19th century, and lynchings, to keep Black voters away from the polls, continued well into the 20th century, Bowdoin College scholar Jeffrey Selinger points out.)

“Still, 16% of those surveyed in late 2019 said the use of violence to advance political goals would be ‘a little’ justified. The number, essentially equal among Democrats and Republicans, grew to 21% when respondents were asked to consider the possibility of losing the 2020 election. That amounts to millions of Americans who would condone the use of force, even if they don’t personally act out… Given the hothouse atmosphere, some who renounce violence worry about those who won’t.

“‘If Trump gets reelected or if Biden wins, who can say what will happen?’ said Shad DeLacy, 43, a political independent who runs a menswear boutique on the main business strip in Kenosha, Wis. He gestured at buildings across the street, boarded up as a precaution after days of unrest following the August shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man, by a white police officer.” LA Times. Nobody can really be sure, but even if civil war does not break out, how exactly are Americans going to be able to find a way to live peacefully with each other? Can Congress function without a return to the long-standing practice of political horse-trading, a world that seemed to end as the twentieth century came to an end?

            I’m Peter Dekom, and even if we get past this election without ultra-violence, are we already too deeply enmeshed in a “great unraveling” to be the United States of America ever again?