The Axis of Resistance

The Axis of Resistance

War 101: Using War to Distract and Rally

Wars have all sorts of motivations. Civil wars and wars of invasion: My vision of God requires me to force it as your vision of God. We are the chosen people, superior and destined to rule. We must civilize the heathen. We’re running out of space for our people, our agriculture, our natural resources (Lebensraum) and our future. I want more! I am bigger and stronger than you, so give me what I want. Our mission is to exterminate vermin, the less than full humans on the planet… or at least use them as our slaves, lackeys and exploitable minions. We are right; they are wrong and blocking our greatness. You were always part of our world, and you will be again. Etc. Etc.

Another reality – whether you are the King of Saudi Arabia, the Tsar/dictator of Russia, the chief of state chosen by the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Peoples’ Republic of China, the scion-ruler of dark state N Korea that keeps its population in trancelike and morbid fear of violent repression, an angry Jewish head of state who failed to detect an attack also facing criminal conviction, an indicted White Supremacist who has found a rabid angry following fearing being left behind, or a religious autocrat using religious justification to provoke and cleverly use proxy wars to promote the spread of Islam all over the earth – is the unholy assumption from all militant autocrats that if they can’t deliver what your subjects expect in quality of life, and if you think your repressive efforts to hold power are wobbly and unreliable, then you will use war to distract and rally your citizens to focus on “other.” Fear meets “patriotism” or a perceived higher calling from God.

China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have economies in disarray, all functions of failed policies of the man in charge. Perhaps that is one good reason to get more women as heads of state! In North Korea, repression is working fabulously well, but having the United States as the bugaboo enemy helps justify the harsh and sparse regime of Kim Jong-un. As the Saudi monarchy keeps looking over their shoulders, a little more freedom leeches into permitted civilian activities, and there is still enough money to keep the people relatively satisfied with their lives. So far anyway.

I’ve spent enough time on the projections and failures of MAGA-land and Israel’s faltering efforts in Gaza, so today, I would like to visit Ayatollah Khamenei’s retort to former President George W. Bush’s 2002 claim that Iran, Iraq and North Korea made up an Axis of Evil: Iran and her proxies are now self-described as the “Axis of Resistance.” Israel, the United States and most of the West are the Godless vile foes that must be subdued by Islam under the Ayatollah’s leadership. Occasionally, the Ayatollah is tripped up by intra-Islamic strife as his mystical Shia faith (representing 20% of Islam) butts up against fundamentalist Sunni Islamist literalists like ISIS.

Russia and China seek to engage that Iranian animosity. That Syria is led by a 10% Shiite autocracy makes it the natural partner for Iranian aspirations. Iraq is a Shiite power as well. In 2018, when Donald Trump pulled the United States out of what was an imperfect yet effective containment treaty that at least stopped Iran’s nuclear weapons program, Tehran immediately resumed not only that nuclear program but became a very major manufacturer of drones and missiles easily deployed within its proxy states and even more easily sold to Russia as Moscow ran out sufficient weaponry in its war of annexation against Ukraine.

As David Leonhardt, writing in the April 4th NY Times The Morning news feed, explains: “The Axis of Resistance includes Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other groups [across Asia and Africa], and both its strategy and its tactics have long been radical. The official slogan of the Houthis — the Yemen-based group that has attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea — includes ‘death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews,’ for example.

“Nonetheless, the conflict between the Axis and its enemies had remained limited for years. Even though Iran funds and supports the Axis, other countries have often treated its member groups as distinct from Iran. Attacks by Hamas or Hezbollah usually did not lead to reprisals against Iran.” For most of recent history, the US lost any semblance of Middle Eastern neutrality… particularly since the Trump administration backed Netanyahu’s rejection of a two-state solution, moving the US embassy to what would have been an open city held for the benefit of Muslims, Christians and Jews: Jerusalem, now exclusively an Israeli city.

Iran, long a supporter of global Shiite power, began to make inroads into its major opposition in the Islamic world: the almost 80% of the rest of Islam (Sunnis). The door? The Sunni militants in Gaza: Hamas. The greatest gift to the Ayatollah was the aftermath of October 7th, which started off as a brutal, unprovoked, murderous Hama assault on innocent Israelis (1200 deaths and well over a hundred hostages taken). Having failed to detect the building Hama storm in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu and his ultra-rightwing coalition partners unleashed a firestorm that had some limited success against Hamas but ultimately led to the death of tens of thousands of innocent Palestinian Gaza residents, now facing starvation where Israel is hindering the shipment of food and medical supplies. Global perception turned quickly and profoundly against Israel.

For most of the Islamic world, and for many other nations around the world, Israel and the United States are treated as one. This assumption is bolstered by the massive military aid provided by the US to Israel, year after year, including a vast portion of the Israeli Defense Force’s munitions used in Gaza. That Biden did not stop the continued shipment of arms to Israel has only supported the perception of an Israeli/US unity. If the recent anti-Netanyahu protests in Israel do force a new election, Bibi has little chance of prevailing. A little warning to Netanyahu who openly courts MAGA congress people, who follow the dictates of Donald Trump: despite the appearance of Trump on Netanyahu’s campaign posters, if Bibi loses and heads for a resumed corruption trial, he likely going to be treated the way Trump treats all loyalists who are viewed as losers: Bibi is heading under the bus.

The Ayatollah and Bibi need this distracting war. But as Iran has been semi-successful in relegating the conflict to its proxies, the danger of a bigger direct conflict looms: “Initially, Iran remained somewhat removed from the fighting. Although its leaders praised the Oct. 7 attack as a step toward the end of Israel, they privately said they did not help plan the attack — and U.S. officials agree they did not. All three countries took steps to avoid a wider war.

“All have good reasons. Iran’s economy is weak, and its fundamentalist government worries about pro-democracy activism. A war could destabilize the country. Israel eventually hopes to sign a diplomatic agreement with Saudi Arabia, as it already has with Bahrain, Morocco and the U.A.E., which would reduce the long-term risks to Israel’s existence. A bloody war could make it harder for the Saudis to do so (much as the war in Gaza has put the Saudi talks on hold). And President Biden very much wants to avoid a wider war.

“Despite these factors, a basic reality may push Iran and Israel toward confrontation: The distinction between Iran and the Axis of Resistance has always been murky.” NYT. The distraction and the rallying power of this war, for both sides, can only go so far… without truly creating a massively expanded regional war. Remember, ISIS killed at least 137 Russians in late March in their attack against the Crocus City Hall music venue, so picking sides can have deadly consequences. A wider conflict threatens not just explosive further death and destruction… but an economic catastrophe that could send most of the planet into deep recession.

In the meantime, on April 4th, President Biden phoned Bibi and labeled the IDF airstrikes that killed food providing aid workers as “unacceptable,” appearing to condition support on how Israel changes course. Too little, too late? Time might tell.

I’m Peter Dekom, and too much power, in the hands of angry despots with political and economic failure all around them, is never a positive reality for the rest of us.